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Comment by Sol- | Hacker News Reader

It's win-win for them, no? A weak Russia isolated from the west means cheap resources for China. And the West focusing on the conflict and spending resources in Europe draws attention away from China in Asia. Seems like it's their interest to keep both parties in a drawn out conflict.

Though perhaps they have to balance it with how it affects the world economy.

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> win-win for them, no?

No.

Taiwan is seeing a massive increase in morale and defense interest [1]. The West has unified in a way not seen since World War II. If Xi sides with the baddies, he risks the stink rubbing off on him.

[1] https://www.wsj.com/amp/articles/in-taiwan-putins-war-in-ukr...

I don't think China could do anything about the attack itself (besides pushing it back into the mud...). This way the Taiwan development isn't anything they could change. It will wear off though and doesn't really change anything about the whole situation.

In return they get to see what the West will do and what they'd do if China would to attack Taiwan. They get the cheap resources OP mentioned above, they get another country which depends on them and posting some Ads on Facebook won't hurt them. It's not like somebody would sanction them because of it.

Realistically seen, they'll be able to get away with much more and I'm sure they'll test that in the weeks to come.

I can't imagine "the West" sanctioning both a huge source for oil and gas AND a source for cheap manufactured goods and they know it too...

I don’t know how many times this has to be said, but the situations with Taiwan and Ukraine are in no way similar. The US has no formal alliance, or guarantees, with Ukraine. The US not rushing to defend them is not proof they won’t defend Taiwan (for one thing Taiwan is vital to the American military as a chip manufacturer.)

Taiwan is extremely important militarily for the US besides chip manufacturing. First the US has an early warning radar for detecting a (nuclear) ballistic missile attack installed in Tawain [1] and Taiwan is a key strategic part in the in a war against China [2].

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PAVE_PAWS#In_Taiwanese_service

[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/First_island_chain#United_Stat...

Western feelings of unity are of no importance on this topic. Large majorities in both mainland China and Taiwan are happy with Taiwan's current status. Nothing that happens in Ukraine will convince significant numbers of Taiwanese to sign up for a proxy war.

No one is suggesting that they'll sign up for a proxy war out-of-the-blue. But the Russians are clearly surprised by the hostile resistance they've met from ordinary Ukrainians. I think they really thought that they would be welcomed or at least met with indifference.

Every time I've heard a militant Chinese unification advocate talk about Taiwanese unification, they scoff at the idea that the Taiwanese would actually resist a PLA invasion. Now that possibility can't be ignored.

"You may not be interested in war, but war is very interested in you."

Most people in both nations, including everyone who has a say in any decision, support the status quo. China isn't going to unilaterally invade Taiwan, and Taiwan isn't going to take steps to change that fact.

Recent events in Ukraine have made the Taiwanese less likely to tolerate the formation of foreign-affiliated groups like "Right Sector" or "Azov Battalion". There is also no area or population similar to Donbas where westernized Taiwanese could e.g. kill 14,000 people or burn down a trade union hall with lots of people inside.

Assuming that war is the natural state of humanity, which is only prevented by authoritarians in the employ of Raytheon, is a character flaw.

> China isn't going to unilaterally invade Taiwan, and Taiwan isn't going to take steps to change that fact

This was the dominant opinion with respect to Russia and Ukraine, including in Ukraine, until weeks, in some cases, days, prior to the invasion.

I think they will play the hand as dealt but I don't think the conflict is worth it to them overall. There has already been a record sell-off in Chinese government debt the past few weeks.

This is such a fragile time after 2 years of COVID for the global economy. Even the Belt and Road countries being dragged down with Russia can't be worth it to them.

Not to mention they have their own economic/banking issues that they were probably hoping for a strong global recovery to help out with.

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