That assumes there's only one new phone. Isn't there still talk of an iPhone 5 too or is that a dead rumor now?
http://daringfireball.net/2011/09/teardrop_skepticism
And he goes on to talk about the iPhone 4s and the iPhone 5. Apple, as usual, keeps everyone on the edge of their seats.
My personal take is that Apple should just do the iPhone 4s. In head to head sales, the iPhone 4 still kills everyone else. I'd let it get a little staler -- and then drop the iPhone 5 say in June of next year.
They can do the tick-tock, like Intel. One year, new design, next year use better components. And they can have the iPad and iPhone tick/tock on opposing years.
"The problem here is that while Apple can play the fashion game as well as any company, there is no evidence that it can play it fast enough. These phones go in and out of style so fast that unless Apple has half a dozen variants in the pipeline, its phone, even if immediately successful, will be passé within 3 months."
"And its survival in the computer business relies on good margins. Those margins cannot exist in the mobile handset business for more than 15 minutes."
The problem is -- he said it in 2007.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/apple-should-pull-the-plug-...
Ouch. Next time I say something stupid, just downvote me, or compare me to Hitler or something. No need to fight that dirty.
He's basically a nonsense generator, and always has been. I feel he'll someday retire and write a autobiography about how he was trolling us all for his entire career then start a second act as a comedy writer.
* iPhone 1 @ June 2007 * iPhone 3G @ July 2008 (13 months) * iPhone 3GS @ June 2009 (11 months) * iPhone 4 @ June 2010 (12 months) * iPhone 4S/5 @ October 2011 (16 months)
What Apple does need is a competitor to the 4-4.5" Android devices. According to the rumors that's what the iPhone 5 was supposed to be. If they have to go another 12 months without a competitor they will probably continue to lose more marketshare. If you look at the sales of Android phones they are almost all 4-4.5" devices so you could say it's the fastest growing segment of the SmartPhone market. Hard to say if people are buying them because they are increasingly the only option for an Android phone or if they prefer the bigger size. Either way it's probably safe to say a significant chunk of the SmartPhone market wants the bigger size.