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Comment by stonogo | Hacker News Reader

   > if Russia fully pull out tomorrow, what do they get back and when

Everything and immediately, is generally how it works. That's the climbdown. I don't get the pearl-clutching about being mean to a bully. And it's not like China has stopped trading with them. China as a trading partner is a hell of a long way from "nothing left to lose."

Anyway judging by their performance in Ukraine, I'm not convinced they have enough shit left in them to reach a fan. Who's to say their nukes work any better than their air force?

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Everything and immediately, is generally how it works.

I think Ukraine should demand more than returning to the pre-invasion state. I don't know exactly what, but it seems like they should shoot for some verifiable changes in Russia's government, laws, military, or the like, and tie them to milestones for sanction reduction. If nothing else, that might help anchor negotiations in Ukraine's direction.

For me that's actually 30% of my worry-o-meter. MAD works two ways, you have to convince the "other" side your tools work, but what if your stage performance sucks? What if they convince western military planners that a preemptive strike is a viable option? Where's the cutoff? 30 of their nukes reaching their targets? 60? 100?

What if the west is certain they can take down their land based launch sites? What if they only need to concern themselves with the submarines? What if the west knows where those are? (Sonar has had huge developments 1990-$NOW) What if sonar technology has developed to a point the west have a fix on 50% of Russian subs? What then?

MAD only works if MAD means MAD, not if MAD means 50% assured destruction... The loss of life, wealth and security if one side of this insane pact ever lets down their part of the deal...

What happens if Ukraine surrenders or they conquer Ukraine? Does that also cause it to end?

I doubt it because half the value is signalling. If the signal is “if you win we stop” then putin will make sure he wins faster in future. And China too.

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