I’ve studied the possible trajectories of the Russia-Ukraine war. None are good
theguardian.com
theguardian.com
Let me start with the possibility of cyberattacks. Biden (I think it was he, anyway) made a comment about American offensive cyber capabilities. I think that was a warning. "Hey, Russia, yes you could cyberattack us and cause a lot of problems. But we can do the same to you, and maybe better. Don't open that door." And so far, they haven't.
Maybe the same thing could be said about tactical nukes. "You want to use a tactical nuke on something in Ukraine? Think twice. If a tactical nuke just happened to wind up in Ukrainian hands, well, that armored column that's stalled outside of Kyiv would look like an awfully tempting target..."
Would that be enough to keep Russia from using them? I don't know.
And I think this article is off base when it talks about escalation even if the Ukranians win. It talks about Ukranians crossing the border into Russia to carry out attacks. In what world is that going to happen? What do they think they're going to do, march on Moscow?
I mean, I can see some accidental or incidental incursions. I can't see a real deliberate crossing. (I can see Russian propaganda turning an incidental crossing into "The Nazi Ukranians are coming for us! It's Barbarossa 2.0! Every man to the trenches!" But that's just propaganda - unless Putin believes it.)
Putin hypes the Ukrainian dirty bomb story and stages a false flag attack. The rosier version is he stages it in Chernobyl and uses it as post hoc justification for his war.
The gloomier less likely version is he stages it in one of the eastern regions, and with some tit-for-tat rhetoric nukes Odessa or a smaller town, showing the world he's willing to use them.
The second nightmare scenario is that a non state actor hackers, in Russian or the West, crosses a line and attacks some critical infrastructure. It is misattributed as a state sponsored attack and considered an act war, bringing other countries in and escalating the war.
Bonus scenario: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=hiwgOWo7mDc