Hacker News Reader

Comment by kinleyd | Hacker News Reader

Given what's already happened, and provided (I'm hoping) Ukraine continues to hold out as it has, both EU/NATO membership is looking very realistic and likely to occur in relatively quick order. I think settling for less would be illogical at this point.

View on HN

EU membership is only possible if certain economic metrics are met, IIRC, and that is impossible to achieve while under attack or even soon after in the rebuilding phase. So to me EU membership is looking pretty far out. Why does it look realistic to you?

Treaties aren't set in stone, and novel ones can be invented. If I had to crystal-ball predict what a plausible Ukrainian victory looks like here—that is, the best likely outcome I think they might achieve on a relatively short timetable—it's a negotiated peace that gives some territorial concessions and, for face-saving for Putin/Russia, rejects Ukrainian NATO ambitions... but puts them in a quick-n-dirty EU status that grants them a security agreement of some kind, as they progress on the slower track to full EU membership.

I think if Russia backs them into fully rejecting all security agreements with the West as part of a settlement, they're just in for a takeover by other means, once Russia has its near-term concerns addressed by the peace settlement and can afford to sit back and wait. I think the most likely way out of that (assuming Ukraine achieves one) is a novel arrangement of some kind, more likely with with the EU than NATO, or (waaaay less likely) a new bloc & mutual defense agreement with Sweden and Finland.

Yes, I understand the requirements for EU/NATO membership and that Ukraine is a long way from there. I thought it was realistic given the circumstances: Ukraine is quite literally fighting for eastern Europe - including those countries that have already acceded to the EU. I can't see any other way to look at it given the facts that have already surfaced. While the EU and NATO waffle over the extent it is willing to risk engaging in this war, Ukraine is getting destroyed, but may yet do enough to set back Putin's designs by 30 or more years, if not permanently. I believe such an outcome should confer the deserved right to special treatment for Ukraine by both the EU and NATO. However, perhaps I am too romantic in this regard as even at this time I'm sensing stodginess on the part of the EU and NATO.

>both EU/NATO membership is looking very realistic

Neither is possible. Ukraine does not control its borders so can't join NATO and is not economically viable enough to enter EU. And under that scenario trying to take Crimea starts a world war between Russia and NATO.

Ukraine joining NATO is just not ever going to be allowed to happen.

I believe a lot will depend on the outcome of this war as well as its ramifications for Putin's grip on power. Ukraine has so far defied all the odds and I wouldn't bet against them at this point. If given a bloody enough nose Russia may not be in a position to never allow NATO membership to happen.

Reply on news.ycombinator.com