After years of living in Moscow: No one should expect Russians to rise up now

That's true.

A much more plausible event is a coup within, similar to the one in 1991. The mayor of Moscow, S. Sobyanin, for instance, is an ambitious man who attempted to run the COVID-19 fight while Putin was hiding in his bunker. Recently, Sobyanin created a commission that will analyze and make decision on economic measures under sanctions. I won't be surprised that one day this commission will become a new government.