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How would halting exploration on federal land have such a dramatic effect in only a year?

It’s technically but not practically true since the ban was at least partially lifted and of course it isn’t the cause in such a short time.

The US Energy Information Administration publishes a variety of energy related information, including US Oil Extraction. In Dec 2021, 11,567,000 barrels per day were extracted, compared to a 12,966,000 bbl/day peak in Nov 2019 [1].

Of course, this aggregate number doesn't disambiguate the cause of the decrease in production.

[1] https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=M...

There was of course a fairly obvious reason for decreased oil production between late 2019 and late 2021. You may remember a certain pandemic that caused demand to drop, oil prices to go negative and highly-levered oil exploration/production companies to go bankrupt...

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