Americans should get ready for $5 a gallon gas, analyst warns | Hacker News Reader

Americans should get ready for $5 a gallon gas, analyst warns

cbsnews.com

10 pointspaulpauper26 comments

It was there in 2007-2008. And really won't last beyond winter. America has a normal stance of releasing gas supplies over the summer for vacation travel. The only real problem is covering the gap in Europe, which is why prices will go higher then come down in a few months. Unless the oil companies do what all other companies (food etc) are doing and just charge more and make record profits.

You can look at the oil futures markets to see if other speculators agree with your predictions.

Historic gas prices back to 1992 for the curious: https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=e...

I doubt it's adjusted for inflation.

there is speedrunning of negotiations with iran in order to cover some of loss of russian oil

For comparison, the gas price is currently $9.3 USD/gallon in Norway.

I think if we’re comparing gas prices in different countries, a lot more parameters also needs to be considered. Like the quality and quantity of alternative transportation. Most of the US don’t have a good public transportation system that people could easily use as an alternative or that people prefer to use in general. Not being able to drive or afford gas could drastically lower your opportunities in a lot of the US.

It's good to check in with other countries. Quality and quantity of alternative transportation is influenced by gas prices.

Development of the US highway system changed how towns and transportation were organized just like I'm sure $9 US gas prices would do the same. After all, the current situation (in both US and Norway) are partly a result of specific choices the respective governments chose to invest and tax over decades.

That’s a great point. I’d be curious to know how much gas prices influenced the infrastructure of countries with great alternative transportation versus other influences.

I think for the US, maybe this would have worked before the era of electric vehicles but now, it also influence adoption of electric vehicles more if those prices stay competitive, rather than public transport and walkability. Which is still a lot better than gas vehicles imo.

How much of that is tax?

Hmm. Let's see:

* "Veibruksavgift": 4.95 NOK/liter

* CO2 tax: 1.78 NOK/liter

* VAT: 20%

Not sure how to properly translate "veibruksavgift." Directly translated, it's "road usage tax", so I guess that's close enough. :)

in 2007-2008, it was costly, but driving was rather peaceful and nice to have to drive to work for once. When the price came down, the assholes came out.

Spring 2020 the roads were empty. I could plan travel times to job sites based on miles to drive. And a gallon was a dollar and change.

5 bucks a gallon? I paid that in 2001 in Europe. Average wage was enough for ~700 liters. $5 in US will mean average salary buys you >4000 liters.

Ha, ha. Way ahead of you there, OP. We've been paying $5 per gallon for our gas around the SF bay area for nearly a year now.

Already has been $6 in San Francisco / Marin. Let’s see how high it will go.

Right, the 90% of Americans not in CA.

UPDATE: wow, can anyone enlighten me on why this got downvoted? 90% of the US population is not in CA.

What geographic bias do you think the HN audience has compared to the US population?

Thank you for taking the trouble. I didn’t consider how that would matter. How does it figure? Seems disproportionately CA (Bay Area) to me, perhaps just my own filter.

I filled my tank at $5.95. LA.

When the war gets more brutal, I expect increasing pressure to shut off the Russian oil and gas spigot. Or instead increase import tariffs so at least the Putin regime isn't able to profit. Either way, it will increase the cost at the pump, and I'm expecting well above $6/gallon.

We don't import that much from Russia. It's little enough that finding other sources shouldn't take long. Oil and gas are highly fungible.

The rest of the world does and thus the price of oil will go up for everyone.

Did, prior to sanctions. Now even though oil and gas aren't sanctioned, Russian oil is going without buyers.

https://www.npr.org/2022/03/04/1084448619/russia-lowers-its-...

Unfortunately the price of crude oil is dictated by the global supply and demand.

> Oil and gas are highly fungible.

Crude oil isn't completely fungible. Refineries are built to handle specific grades.

Biden had control over this particular version of inflation. Chose to exacerbate the problem x1M

Outside of that, we're doomed anyways

So we got that going for us

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