Hacker News Reader

Comment by hughrr | Hacker News Reader

I think it'll end when the Russian populace is squeezed hard and turns on the government. Forces will be withdrawn from Ukraine to deal with civil issues. A bloody military coup will occur, supported by sympathetic members. New government will be appointed. This government will eventually end up a NATO member and piss off China and then we'll have to do the same thing again.

View on HN

Just like Cuba, North Korea and Iran. Sanctions work and it doesn’t take long.

Don’t think this will happen. Russian have been hardened historically thru wars, 90s and other crises. Common people are very resilient and many grow their own food up to this day.

Genuine question: Has this strategy ever worked? When has economic stress imposed by a competing power turned a populace from being supportive or apathetic to their government waging a military campaign(against an external target or even against an internal target, either in a genuine conflict or a genocide) to them overthrowing it?

Economic pressure hastened the fall of Soviet domination. If you believe Regan, it was the primary cause. It you don't (and you shouldn't), it was a contributing cause.

I'm not commenting on the broader topic; just that this strategy has worked before.

Sanctions played a major role in forcing Apartheid South Africa to the negotiating table regarding its military actions in Angola, giving Namibia independence, and starting negotiations with the ANC and other groups to end Apartheid. They were bankrupting the regime and white South African businesses were increasingly applying pressure on the government to find a solution as the economy crumbled.

> I think it'll end when the Russian populace is squeezed hard and turns on the government.

Castro died of old age, sanctions still in place for his entire decades-long tenure. While I do believe that sanctions can weaken a regime, I do not believe history shows that they lead to regime change.

There isn't really historical precedence for this, and this was sort of the idea behind strategic bombing which had the opposite effect.

> when the Russian populace is squeezed hard and turns on the government.

Big assumption that the first will lead to the second. Putin's invasion of Crimea led to his highest approval rating, even with the sanction response.

https://news.gallup.com/poll/173597/russian-approval-putin-s...

People could still buy medicine and food after that.

IIRC sanctions were small and invisible at the time. Unlike 2022.

Don’t underestimate Putin’s ability to convince the Russian public that this is all the West’s fault. It’s kind of been their (my former) country’s greatest trick.

I know many USSR immigrants here in the states who once despised anything to do with Putin and his ilk, are now buying into Putin’s rhetoric. It’s really weird to see.

Oh I believe you. I just expected that it had a limit. Also I believe the amount of streamed videos could be a factor too. Unless Russia is now equal to North Korea in terms of brainwashing.

The problem is that a significant chunk of the population only watches the Russian TV broadcasts, many don’t even have access to the internet. Though many immigrants here in the states watch the same shit. It’s sad.

I do think Putin’s days are numbered. With the way the war is going, combined with the global support for Ukraine and the sanctions. I don’t see how the oligarchs, the people around him, and the Russian public will take much more of this. Though, of course, I could be wrong and we could be witnessing a new North Korea type situation.

Weird? It’s the same as Trumpism. They see the same messaging over and over which is largely based on fear and hated and some people lose their minds. Luckily it’s not the whole populace.

It’s weird because they live here in the states and feed on Russian propaganda. These are all people that escaped the USSR to get away from this same rhetoric. Now they are pulled back into it. I’m not saying it can’t happen elsewhere, but feeding on propaganda from someone you used to know as a KGB piece of shit, is weird. It’s weird how effective his shtick is.

And what happens when the Russian people start seeing themselves as victims of the west, like the German people after ww1?

So you think it's realistic to expect that there is a coup in Russia and the country spriral in to chaos years to come?

Russia's economy will decline and Putin will be replaced, but it won't happen fast enough (and that disruptive) for it to make impacts on this war.

Countries with smaller economies like Cuba and Vietnam survived sanctions for years and there was no coup.

Who knows, maybe the cutoff will lead to a new command economy? It might be challenging, but it’s been done before. And, if russia ends up building its own tech infrastructure from bottom to top, it could even be in their rational interest.

On the other hand Causcescu, and Milosevic ended up in a coup/mass revolt, and both dead.... (one by his own people, the other awaiting sentencing on a criminal tribunal)

So, plenty of counterexamples as well.

People are being told that they are fighting a just war. It will be very difficult for people to go against their leaders when they think the government is working for their own good. They will fight harder and longer against their enemy because in their mind they are doing the heroic thing.

Reply on news.ycombinator.com