Downplaying the lab leak is dangerous, because it is the difference between an accident and mass murder. I think the best evidence for a lab leak is common sense.
https://dispatchito.substack.com/p/the-strongest-evidence-of...
https://dispatchito.substack.com/p/the-strongest-evidence-of...
The best "evidence" for Newtonian physics (as opposed to General Relativity) is common sense. Common sense is not evidence.
A hypothesis is not a theory. Being loose with language and concepts is dangerous.
Also, evidence is not fact. Evidence is anything. Evidence was O.J. Simpson's hand didn't fit the glove. That was weak evidence, but that turned into "proof", via not-guilty verdict. Even proof is not fact (there are no facts lol). Evidence is anything you can find to solve the crime. After you collect evidence, you go through it at piece together the story. Read a book yo.
Famously, when asked what his response would be if a certain piece of evidence turned out to be against relativity, Einstein replied that he'd feel sorry for who obtained the evidence, because Relativity was certainly right. And much later it transpired that the evidence matched the theory merely by coincidence; that the experiment was flawed. So Einstein nearly had to face that fight. Anyone following the position laid out in your comment would have been on the wrong side of that debate.
This demonstrates perfectly that rationality can be superior to empiricism because it is not subject to the same flaws and contingencies as the gathering of empirical evidence.
The amount of precession in Mercury's orbit couldn't be accounted for with known theories of the time.
> he did not carefully study existing evidence and realize it supported General Relativity.
Considering it took nearly 10 years to develop GR, I'm not sure he could have even considered whether evidence supported it or not; it was clear that there was a gap in understanding at the time, as experiments started to show it. Einstein suspected rightly[1] that unifying gravitation and acceleration with special relativity would give a complete theory of everything.
[1] He was only half right; it doesn't explain quantum mechanics. He was a strong opponent of (some parts of QM) for a long time.
> rationality can be superior to empiricism
But it clearly isn't, as we haven't come up with a complete model that explains everything we can observe yet.
That objection is utter nonsense and an affront to reasonable discussion. Empiricism hasn't come up with a Grand Unified Theory of Everything yet either, so rationality's failure to do so doesn't constitute evidence either way regarding their relative value.
Let's please not turn the anger dial all the way up on every discussion. I would have been happy to continue discussing this in a dispassionate way, but I won't now.
Simple test: Ask some old Maritime provinces fishermen about how the weather, sun, moon, coastal shape, currents, and dredged shipping channels interact to determine high tide levels along the coast. Then ask a bunch of folks whose experience doesn't include anything "ocean", "sea", or even "great lake" to give your their "common sense" on that subject.
Manslaughter need not have intent or motive. The actions or consequences that precipitate from powerful leaders of state who bio-engineer weapons (against the law) do not need murder-intent either.
Also "lab leak hypothesis" in no way necessitates "making it in a lab" or gain-of-function. It could be that the virus was being researched in a lab and it leaked.
And it's not only a question of intent. It's also about proximity. There are thousands and thousands of intermediate steps between carelessness leading to a lab leak and a global pandemic. My concern is that by calling it murder, you have no way to explain how driving a car isn't murder due to global deaths from pollution.
Yes, "lab leak" is exactly the phrasing the media uses to diminish the importance, to preclude the asking of more serious questions in light of other evidence. The term is too simple, it does not imply the worse, possibly criminal, involvement. But then, why was it a lab, and not hospital leak? Seems odd place to start for a virus that some guy caught at the fish market.