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Comment by invalidname | Hacker News Reader

Some people assume the cause is lost and that people like Putin only understand force.

I see the point. But I disagree with that...

* First we need to make sure we tried every other option. If WW III does start we need to be 100% sure it wasn't started when there was some other option.

* I think he's a very logical actor. People incorrectly say that his operations don't make sense. They make perfect sense. He did test runs in Crimea, Eastern Ukraine and Syria. The west didn't do anything so he assumed nothing bad will happen

The problem is he's stuck now. He wants to withdraw but he can't without looking weak. He climbed too high on the tree and he knows that if he withdraws without a "win" he won't live much longer. The west needs to find a way that he can spin as a "win" moving forward. Otherwise this might snowball.

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> * I think he's a very logical actor. People incorrectly say that his operations don't make sense. They make perfect sense. He did test runs in Crimea, Eastern Ukraine and Syria. The west didn't do anything so he assumed nothing bad will happen

People don't know what they are talking about. It is extremely simple, just 2 words - missile defense. Russia has nukes and NATO wants to protect themselves by moving their missile defense systems closer to the Russian border, to shoot the nukes down before they can reach the atmosphere. Russian army and economy suck and they won't be able to handle a standout with NATO armies without nukes, so Putin makes "special operations" to prevent them from moving missile defense systems closer. Simple

Nukes don't fly like a plane.

These can be launched into the orbit from any point on Earth, and de-orbited onto the target from literally any direction in the sky.

It's one of the reasons why it's so hard to defend against them.

Did i say anything about them flying like a plane?

> The problem is he's stuck now. He wants to withdraw but he can't without looking weak.

This is the part that's particularly scary to me.

Not really. Not everyone in Russia wants to go down with a sinking ship.

I don't think you understand the Russian psyche. The Russians care more about imposing suffering than their own suffering.

Watch this, xdennis. Maybe you will learn something

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yk5RDy6xFJQ

Very good video, indeed. Explains how Putin and Russian propaganda machine turned Ukrainians into non-humans in perception of many Russian folks.

yeah, right

Who said that he wants to withdraw?

> Mr. Putin’s tendency, American intelligence officials have told the White House and Congress, is to double down when he feels trapped by his own overreach.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/03/us/politics/biden-putin-s...

It's not that he only understand force. If he wanted to negotiate he could do it. He had plenty of opportunity to do it, and still has. At this point it really, really feels that Putin do actually want a war. He's doing absolutely everything he can to have a war.

Rational or not doesn't really matter if what he wants is a war (I mean, he already started a war with Ukraine of course).

He does want to bring Russia back to glory. That's for sure. I think he doesn't want direct conflict with the USA. Like most bullies I think he feel happy about uneven war with small countries like Ukraine. I doubt he wants war with NATO.

It's a persecution complex that's very common in Russia. They're paranoid about western expansion. This has some historical merit to be fair.

After Russia's showing in Ukraine, I think it goes without saying that Moscow would be under American occupation right now if not for nuclear weapons

Unfortunately, Russians aren't so lucky. Tiny South Korea is richer than Russia. Can you imagine how well Russians (with their enormous and rich country) would be doing if they were occupied by Americans and not Putin?

So lucky, they have the highest suicide rate.

Compared to other OECD countries, South Korea's female suicide rate is highest with 15.0 deaths by suicide per 100,000 deaths according to the suicidal rate list, while the male suicide rate is third highest with 32.5 per every 100,000 deaths.

That was my understanding/position until a few days ago. But from what I understand he shifted his strategy from "taking over Ukraine" (so part of his plant to bring back his fascist dream of a lost glory) to "repeat Allepo and Grozny but for Ukraine cities" (aka bomb cities to complete annihilation), which does not go well with the idea that he just wants to bring any glory back to Russia.

The Ukrainians were the ones that halted the Minsk negotiations.

Not like they were negotiating in good faith anyways, as they continued to shell the East.

"The west needs to find a way that he can spin as a "win" moving forward. Otherwise this might snowball."

I don't agree that we have to find a way for Putin to save face.

At some point there will be a coup d'etat, if the army and the oligarchs suffered too much.

I hope so. I wouldn't bet the life of everyone on earth on that. Russia has enough nukes to destroy the world and a direct conflict with the USA might deteriorate quickly.

Keep in mind he killed all opposition in Russia.

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