And even after the Russians leave, the country is awash with weapons and newly-emboldened extremist groups. With the uniting threat of an invader gone, the country becomes fractured. Extremist groups are bound to decide whatever administration Ukraine has at that point isn't doing enough and now they're a problem.
We've seen how this plays out so many times and it always ends badly.
- Intervention in Syria created Asaad.
- Intervention in Iran created a fundamentalist regime that has been an issue for decades;
- Intervention in Iraq to counterbalance the Iranian fundamentalist regime created Saddam Hussein;
- Intervention in Vietnam wrecked the country;
- Intervention in Afghanistan against the Soviet occupation wrecked the country and created Osama bin Laden; and
- 20 years of intervention in Afghanistan resulted in the exact same regime (the Taliban) controlling the country.
But yes, this time will be different.