Is it true that there is a genocide?
Is it true that there is a genocide?
Now they finally decided to leave their city where active skirmishes were ongoing, so I don't have first-hand info anymore.
Reportedly calm so far where they are (I hope they will leave the country, but men are not allowed to leave and his wife does not want to go without).
I hope they will be ok and I’m sorry your friends are in such a horrible position.
https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/t6p7e7/russians_ar...
https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/t634...
This will become total war - there are no limits and civilians in cities are at severe risk. Your sources have a very local view and may well be safe for now but not later. Unless they are in Western Ukraine they are at risk of carpet bombing as Russia gets more desperate.
Carpet bombing would be very bad, as Serbia/Montenegro bombings have shown civilian deaths happen and I have less certainty about the precision of Russian military compared to NATO's.
As to my sources, sure, and I would want to know first-hand information to the contrary, but I am dubious about social and mass media links.
I am amazed by the number of people willing to say "your friends are wrong, they are being killed" while giving reddit links in support.
He destroyed an entire region of his own country (Chechnya) in order to save face. He views Ukraine as a rebellious region like Chechnya which must be put down by any means necessary.
The evidence is there, if you care to look. Frankly your distrust of social media is tending towards paranoia - civilians don't have the means or inclination to mass fake videos, I'd say most are valid reports. Yes videos will be mislabelled (e.g. wrong region) and repeated without question sometimes, but some of the evidence is very clear and very hard to fake.
2. The rhetoric of Putin (Ukraine should not exist, Ukrainians don't exist, they are Russians) definitely makes me think he is capable of genocide in Ukraine.
Regarding Russian government’s attitude, to my ears the rhetoric does not seem to be compatible with genocide (rather the opposite—they can’t do this to their own people, which they claim Ukrainians are), but it is compatible with extensive political persecution of those Ukrainians who don’t agree with this position, which is also pretty bad.
https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/t3hukp/phone_camer...
And the aftermath:
https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/t2ihg8/russian_inv...
This is very disturbing footage so be warned. Some people need to be shaken to wake the fuck up.
Be very careful in what you believe. If the Russians wanted genocide (which I find, honestly, about as nonsense as Russians saying Ukraine has a Nazi governement), they wouldn't need to send troops in, right? They could just have bombed their cities indiscriminately from a safe distance. The Russian attacks are happening in the cities, it's true, but where do you think the Ukrainian military is?? Why didn't they fight the Russians outside the cities to avoid that? Have you heard of "protracted war"?
The nuclear power plant was attacked, what is incorrect about that?
It is clear that Russia has started to war to deprive Ukraine to their independence. There is no doubt about that.
Genocide indeed targets the entire demographic and is insidious in part because it may be misleadingly quiet and peaceful (see the ongoing sterilization of Uyghur women).
That said, one can consider deprivation of independence as adjacent to cultural genocide.
If the war persists in the cities, such death toll is certainly a horrible possibility. It is hopeful that humanitarian corridors seem to be opening up. Though not to Kyiv, where I have a teammate. He just keeps working as normal… Feels like he is trying to escape reality.
To those who think this is just a first step: it's not. It really is not. All other European states that could possibly be invaded or even just harassed by Russia are already part of NATO except maybe for Finland (which while not being a NATO member, has very close relationship with NATO and is likely to be defended by NATO even if they don't become members in the next few months) and Moldova. So anything Russia does in Europe after this war is over will very likely cause NATO to react militarily (which it made clear it wouldn't do in Ukraine before the war started) probably before Russia even has a chance to move, so the story will be very different.
I love Ukraine and I want it to exist as an independent democratic country, yet I can’t help but think whoever says both (A) and (B) has probably evacuated all friends and family (if they were ever in Ukraine) and has no regard for the rest. Meanwhile, I have people there, and if we go the A + B route it is likely to drag on for weeks meaning I may lose them—not to genocide or mass murder, which from what I personally know so far strikes me as blatantly made-up propaganda, but to stray ordnance (I pray bombings don’t commence) and most importantly food shortages about to turn into literal hunger.
To those people I say: if you can make (A) happen, make it happen; otherwise do everyone a favor, stop armchair-urging people to die and focus on diplomacy.
As cruel as it is to the people of Ukraine, the rest of Europe is not going to risk being in the same situation as they are in (much worse if Russia decided to use nukes as they *promised* to in case of interference). (B) is going to continue to be in the form of money, military and medical supplies, which seems to me to be far from enough to allow Ukraine to win in any meaningful way... at least not in months... it would take closer to a decade or so (think of how Vietnam or Afghanistan "won" against the USA).
Is that better than try to find an agreement with Russia that would give a short term victory to Russia, but stop this destruction immediately? The world already has tremendous respect for the fight Ukraine has put up! They don't have anything to prove to anyone.
I believe the fastest way out for Ukraine is to give Russia a guarantee that it will not pursue NATO membership (I understand this is all that Russia wants and has been asking since the 2014 coup that removed the Pro-Russia government), ensure Russian-speaking citizens in Eastern Ukraine will not be prosecuted, and acknowledge Russian rule over Krimea.
This should absolutely be acceptable to Russia, and while not being great for Ukraine, it's still better than a prolongued war with Russia and the chaos that will follow even after the war finally ends (with Ukraine's infrastructure most likely almost entirely destroyed)...
Why I think this should be acceptable to Ukraine? Because Ukraine has always had a "blurry" border (this is the same all over Europe, by the way! The very notion of statehood is a 19th century concept in most of Europe) with Russia. Losing a small part of its territory shouldn't be such a huge deal - it's less of a deal than having its cities bombed to the ground and its population fleeing for their lives for years to come, at least.
Accepting to not join NATO is a greater problem as that practically means the threat of aggresion by Russia will continue. But the alternative, Russia NOT having a say and "allowing" Ukraine to join NATO has already proven to be unacceptable to Russia to the extent it's willing to destroy its own economy to prevent that from happening (it might even use nukes, as Putin made clear already). However, this is something that with a few decades of careful negotiations with both sides can actually end up benefiting Ukraine! How? Ukraine will have leverage on both sides: the West does not want to let Moscow have a say in Ukrainian affairs, specially after this aggressive war, while Russia will have no choice but thread carefully with its businesses in Ukraine, trying to keep Ukrainians happy enough to not want to overwhelmingly join NATO and "fight" with Russia. It's unfortunate that the governments in Kyiv since 2014 have not been able to play exactly this game and have instead let the situation deteriorate into a war.
It is not all Russia wants.
Russia has overtly states that the aim of their “special military operation” is to demilitarize Ukraine as well as to denazify it's government (which they describe as Nazis). So, openly, they want to disarm Ukraine and purge it's government of those Russia finds politically unacceptable.
They’ve also stated that Ukraine has no legitimacy as a state or even ethnic identity, that Ukrainians are Russia and Ukraine is stolen Russian territory, and Russian state media prematurely published and then silently deleted a victory announcement announcing that, with the liberation of Ukraine a new all-Russias union state of Russia (“Great Russia”), Ukraine (“Little Russia”), and Belarus, so it seems likely than the overt demilitarize and purge objective is, well, not the whole story.