Otherwise they will find that planes not flying in/out and container ships not delivering will make it hard to import anything at scale. Not that they could pay for goods anyway.
Also I suspect China may use its new found leverage to flood the Russian market with their goods.
Mafia families are not rely upon …
What I can't comment on however is the quality of lumber for construction purposes. Making pellets is trivial. Furniture, less so.
Beyond just economically, perhaps potential big gains politically by using money & leverage to become the controlling mother that Russia is to Belarus, making russia the dependent & ruled child.
Several nations seem to be setting themselves up for irrelevence by undermining democracy, usually at the behest of powerful groups within the country, but to do so they basically need to pay a bunch of people to tell lies. They've then created a network that external corporations and government actors can take advantage of. If the Russian news suddenly started telling the truth mixed with 30% Chinese propaganda, then to the average Russian that would be noticeably more true than what they are getting now.
Would the presenters tell blatant Chinese lies to decieve their people? Well apart from the chinese bit they obviously do, so you basically hope they're all actually insane true-believers, because if theyre just ordinary Russians spreading obvious BS in return for a decent paycheck then thats an obvious weak point for the nation.
And Russia knows this is viable, as they do it to other nations.
You sure? According to the US government, a few hundred thousand dollars on Facebook ads was enough to buy a US President (c.f Trump, Donald J).
Did Trump win the popular vote? Would he have had any chance in a proportional voting system? Or if you had to vote? (He himself says no Republican could be elected if people could easily vote). Who made that possible and why?
Such a decision would be anything but de-escalation.
Either Russia is not a superpower or it's not that relevant.
Also the Baltic sovereign nations remember very very very well what it was like under Russian oppression. They are not going back to that.
Finnish people remember burning their homes ahead of the advancing tank armies. We remember both wars and many of us have the memories in our blood.
Considering how superbly Russia is fucking up a simple ground invasion, I'd say any threat of nuclear escalation is empty at worst.
Putin says roll tanks into Ukraine? Yeah fine, military commanders oblige. They won't lose much over it. Putin says nuke the world? Well, about that... Even military commanders still want to survive.
(Boing and Airbus already suspended providing replacement parts)
I haven't heard anything about impact on container ships yet, so curious what's the situation there...
Even if all 500 planes are instantly returned at the end of March (how?), there will be reduced traffic to Europe due to the current European bans, and the rest of the traffic will be handled by the remaining fleet. I'm not even talking about Comac or other options.
We'll see in the coming weeks, but the scenario you describe where a catastrophic decline in Russian flights such that there are enough non-Airbus/Boeing planes that can manage them is effectively a collapse in Russian civil aviation sector which is kinda what the thread was implying.
The thread in question https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1498723248183382020.html
> other critical components
Like what? This sounds a bit hand-wavy, what are those critical components, if you don't mind me asking?
Then, how do you picture 500 planes getting returned and leasing companies instantly re-leasing them to other customers to keep their own business afloat? Even if that does happen, worst case, that will reduce Russian air traffic to something like Covid days-level. There are a lot of hypotheticals in this thread, facts on the ground right now are, the planes are flying, cargo ships are delivering and all but 7 banks are moving the money across the borders just fine.
Home-build - maybe, but not without parts from the US\EU, not to mention most of the production equipment is not Russian too and you have to maintain it or replace it at somepoint.
Oh and to build something you need materials - some are local, some will have to be replaced if possible.
This will be a huge problem, especially in a country with strong corruption tradition.
Whatever the US role in the events in Ukraine was, for sure they won't let Russia off the hook easily after this invasion.
Putin will make a law that returning airplanes to abroad is illegal. Foreigners have not been allowed to sell Russian shares already nearly a week. So nothing new there.
They cannot fly to most countries anyway, so the risk of getting them confiscated while landed somewhere is small.
Is there international treaties covering such things?
Mind, I'm from the UK our government just ignore international law when they like and only to please their own ends, not even in times of crisis, so can't see something as simple as breaking a treaty will cause any change here.