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Comment by cdot2 | Hacker News Reader

Is this a net gain from two years ago?

Apparently we’ve gained back 90% of the jobs lost due to covid: https://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow-show/maddowblog/us-job-g...

Here in DC things are still dead in the middle of the day, but maybe that’s a DC thing. In Annapolis where I live covid effectively ended more than a year ago, apart from the punitive measures on kids. I was talking with a guy who worked for a new local restaurant chain (just two locations near Annapolis) that opened last year. He was shocked to hear things were so bad in DC, because they had a gangbusters opening year.

Also in DC. The jobs are coming back but the work is still remote. My office has moved to hybrid schedule of 3 days in office (tues-thurs) and remote Mon, Fri. I know many other offices that are still remote however, and only just now starting to discuss RTO procedures.

Not to mention "core hours" becoming a thing even on in-person days for many offices meaning it's no longer as much of a thing to get out of the office for lunch at noon if you're only there until 3 or 4.

In the corporate law field, where I am, the 5 day in person week is dead between experience during the pandemic and the generally tight labor market.

> In February, the unemployment rate edged down to 3.8 percent, and the number of unemployed persons edged down to 6.3 million. In February 2020, prior to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, the unemployment rate was 3.5 percent, and the number of unemployed persons was 5.7 million. (See table A-1.) [1]

from tootie's link

[1] https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

In terms of total number of jobs, it looks like we'er still a smidge below pre-pandemic, but we also haven't seen full recovery of the size of the labor force.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=MCbN

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=MCbS

> but we also haven't seen full recovery of the size of the labor force

Roughly 3 million people left the labor force between retirements, inability to work due to lack of childcare and similar, or death. Immigration is also negligible due to border closures. Labor force ain't coming back.

Anecdotally, every person in my circle who is in their early 60s is just holding on for Medicare (age 65) and their full retirement age to collect Social Security.

https://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/economic-synops...

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2022/02/25/great-res...

https://www.marketplace.org/2022/01/24/how-much-labor-force-...

https://www.brookings.edu/research/is-long-covid-worsening-t...

The childcare issue is almost certainly due to pandemic and will definitely come back. Immigration was also slowed by pandemic. The retirement issue is due to retiring boomers and will work itself out as the population gets younger. Declining fertility will likely lead to less robust labor force even while participation rate increases.

If wages stay strong, and there is no subsidy for childcare, those parents aren't coming back to the workforce. They'll stay home and raise their kids, as they'll have no other choice. Point me at a your average childcare facility, and I can have those employees hired away to better jobs (less responsibility) paying more within the day, even if your skills are only early childcare education or similar (average pay is $11/hour for this work, which isn't sustainable in the current macro, my local Target is paying $17-24/hr for retail). It's a market failure, demonstrating the US doesn't value parent workers who require this service.

The population isn't getting younger due to the rapidly declining total fertility rate, so you're going to experience a labor "squeeze", having a bunch of folks leaving the labor force and a smaller working population having their wages rapidly pushed up. Immigration will remain a challenge due to the political climate not being supportive of it.

For your average worker, it's a net benefit as long as the surging wages last (and inflation subsides as interest rates rise, which will also push asset prices down), even more so if organizing efforts across the country continue.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/241494/median-age-of-the...

https://www.marketplace.org/2021/08/19/how-essential-child-c...

https://laist.com/news/california-child-care-covid-disappear...

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/31/us/child-care-centers-cri...

https://childcareta.acf.hhs.gov/sites/default/files/public/a...

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2021-09-22/child-car...

Do you mean is 678,000 jobs added in February, 2022 more than the number of jobs added in February, 2020? Or do you mean are the total number of jobs in the US in February, 2022 higher than the total number of the jobs in February, 2020? Or something else?

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