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Comment by stickfigure | Hacker News Reader

Every time someone voices a sentiment like this, I post this list:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_the_largest_trading_pa...

China is a large economy but it's nothing like the dominant force many people seem to think. China is 16% of US trade, 22% of EU trade, 22% of Japan's trade, 22% of South Korea's trade, etc... the numbers are the same for just about everyone.

If you add up all the West-aligned countries (including Vietnam, Philippines, etc - they're already in a cold war with China over the South China Sea), you're looking at 80-90% of China's total trade volume.

Without some kind of major political split in the dollarized world, China just doesn't have that kind of leverage. We're currently seeing the opposite of that split.

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Vietnam is definitely neutral to both parties. They can't afford to pick sides at all. In fact they have a 3 N's policy: no foreign military bases, no alliances, no aligning with one country against another.

I'm not sure where you get this idea that they are US aligned. This is specifically against their policy. They play a very balanced game as they should given their big neighbour...

https://thediplomat.com/2019/01/vietnams-defense-policy-of-n...

Militarily, you are 100% correct. Economically, China and Vietnam are strong competitors. Culturally, there seems to be no love lost. It's hard to imagine the Viets encouraging Chinese economic hegemony.

It's a bit complex. Most of the big factories for example that makes shoes in Vietnam are Chinese owned -- and that makes Taiwanese manufacturers like Freetrend (makes Nike and so on) small fish even. As for your other point -- you're right -- but also consider that the government and the people are probably differently minded on this.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-vietnam-protests-idUSKBN1...

Chinese TV dramas and web novels are actually popular in Vietnam. Maybe not that popular but definitely more popular than you think. After all they are neighbor countries and in the same culture group.

> China is a large economy but it's nothing like the dominant force many people seem to think. China is 16% of US trade, 22% of EU trade, 22% of Japan's trade, 22% of South Korea's trade, etc

You seem to think of those percentage as small - they represent the largest trading partner of each of those country/entity.

China is 3rd largest trading partner to the US behind Canada and Mexico.

https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/statistics/highlights/t...

They are quite literally even for total (all within 0.1% of others), but if you look at Imports China leads by far.

There's a relevant joke, you've probably heard it before:

-----

A guy walking along the beach finds a bottle. He pulls out the cork, and a genie appears and tells him he has three wishes. "But," the genie says, "I have to warn you, whatever you receive, your worst enemy will get twice as much as you."

"OK," says the guy, "first, I want ten million dollars." The genie grants the wish and reminds him that his worst enemy now has twenty million dollars.

"Next wish, I want a thirty-room mansion in the Bahamas." The genie builds the mansion for him, and lets him know that his worst enemy now has a home twice as big.

"Fine. For the last wish," the guy picks up a big stick and hands it to the genie, "beat me HALF to death."

-----

The countries that trade with China can survive 15-25% of their trade evaporating, albeit with some pain. Maybe less than we think - most of what China exports is available from other nations. On the other hand, China's economy cannot weather 80% of its trade market disappearing.

I certainly hope it never comes to this. Military adventurism in Taiwan could trigger it. Mass civilian casualties in Ukraine could trigger more severe "no trade with anyone that trades with Russia" sanctions. I'd like to think that the Chinese would be just as disgusted as we would be and join the coalition voluntarily, but who knows.

Name checks out. Great joke, have not heard it before.

Percentages don't tell the story: modern supply chains means doing without critical components and manufacturing steps, and they cannot be replaced quickly.

This is true in food, this is true in semiconductors.

Market economies are incredibly resilient to this kind of chaos.

Yeah, I didn't get that comment either. Countries like South Korea are economically dependent on China.

The point is most countries maintain 80% of their trade without china, and are aligned with us policy wise for now; the implication is the west has more leverage if push comes to shove, they can (arguably per op) hurt china more than vice versa and more so by being aligned. It would obviously be a very serious injury to all economies involved and will hopefully not be necessary.

Percentages don't tell the story: modern supply chains means doing without critical components and manufacturing steps, and they cannot be replaced quickly.

This is true in food, this is true in semiconductors.

The GP is stating that China is dependent on Us aligned country

I think the point is that it's China vs west-aligned countries, as an individual country it's a huge percentage, but if 78% of your trade depends on dollars/wire transfers/etc that's going to dominate

plenty of countries are "allies" with the west because of convenience and alignment - but that can change on a dime. And countries aren't stupid; if you can see that currency sanctions can have such a major affect, you would prepare by ensuring that you are diversified.

I say that the current currency and banking sanctions are a one use tool - it is effective in the short term at hurting the russian economy, but the west will be paying a future price for it, one where the west's currency and institutions are trusted less than it would have been had they not done this.

You can argue that these sanctions are preferable to war. After all, any war with russia and the west will be nuclear, without a doubt. So the west is choose the lesser of two evils to deploy. But i'm not so sure that nuclear war is not averted.

One more thing: China keeps making noise about military intervention in Taiwan.

Based on what we see today, what would be the economic consequences for that kind of adventurism? Who wants to hold the currency of a nation that is one jingoistic decision away from receiving the Russia treatment?

That said, I do think the world's strong reaction to Russia - whether or not it ultimately makes a difference in Ukraine - has made the Taiwanese a lot safer. Unlike Putin, the CCP does seem to care about China's place in the world.

You failed to take note nukes gifted to Iran and Syria to tame USA in middle east. As for those economics sanctions, let just say it is very temporary. Putin can start by doing pollonium to say Gates and Buffet which has huge influence over Dems. For now, he will display total destruction of Ukraine first and let all of you see you can't do anything. In 2008 USA loss a lot of wealth. USA moves on. Real power comes from bullets and might. China has this. What she lacks is oil. And Putin now has her back. What Putin lacks is consumer factories which China has. Already USA has been shut off from China market. Over the past 2 decades I have seen China domestic gdp increasing similar to USA years ago. From what happen to Putin, I can see China definitely will use military to wrestle back Taiwan. The key point is tactically blocking USA from doing anything (e.g. Iran and Syria nukes). Really doubt USA able to do anything given the current leadership is Biden the senile creepy guy. 2nd in line is Kamala also doesn't inspire any leadership confidence at all. During Trump 4 years Putin is very subdue. Biden years, hmmm...

I know that trade with China makes up a relatively small part of the US economy however, what happens when nearly all the goods you buy say some part of it is made in China?

Maybe you are looking at the wrong number. % of trade is an abstract number. Not sure what it really means.

How about % of goods. How many % of our everyday goods are produced in China? Can we even live a normal life if China stop sending those products to us for a week, a month?

A great way to look at it. The overall number likely includes services, weapons and heavy machinery. That’s not what directly the day to day life.

Probably not.

Imagine kicking China out of Swift as did to Russia. Dollar is doomed and inflation is going beyond the roof.

I look at the things around me and... it seems like it wouldn't be that much of a difference?

My phone was made in Vietnam. My solar panels were made in Taiwan. My automobile was made in Japan. My clothes were made in Bangladesh. My lumber comes from Canada. My food comes domestically (the tomatoes are from Mexico, though that will change in a couple months). I can't tell where my laptop was made, but there are plenty of options from Korea and Taiwan.

And I'm by no means anti-China. I like cheap flashlights and wrenches like everyone, but almost everything has alternative sources. If I had to go China-free, maybe I'd have the equivalent of 10% less disposable income? I doubt it would be even that much.

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