Just spitballing, China could strike a deal to be the exclusive seller of Russian oil and gas to Europe, and then demand payment in their own cryptocurrency. Why would Russia do this? As a payback for China’s support, for one thing.
They are not in a position to demand anything because if they do, the dependency will soon be resolved. Europe is already working with the assumption that this is not future-proof, so alternatives will be found, rendering any demand useless.
Not even almighty China can lay heavy "demands" on the West or build dominant international alternatives. China needs the world far more than the world needs China. Just a few decades ago, we didn't depend on anything coming from China. We can dial that back.
The opposite is not true. China has a useless geography making them heavily dependent on many external geographies just to acquire the very basics to sustain their population.
The world wants the western model, even if imperfect. People migrate to the west, nobody wants to live in Russia or China. When given a choice, every former Soviet territory wants to join the EU, not Russia. I think that says enough.
However, at this point, China is extremely dependent on imports of commodities including food and other raw materials.
>China needs the world far more than the world needs China. Just a few decades ago, we didn't depend on anything coming from China. We can dial that back. A lot changes in decades, dialing back will take decades in the mean time there's mutual dependancy but PRC along with US are least dependant major economies in terms of trade:gdp and indigenous production. PRC hasnt been export driven for a while. China needs US and US needs China for the foreseeable future, neither needs anyone else.
> China has a useless geography As does most of west, OECD countries that can be self sufficient in energy is like US/CA/NO/NX. Most of west EU apart from France imports net calories. Granted there's major western producers for both but also many none west producers especially for critical minerals for PRC to tap. It's an issue if there's war when SLOCs are blocaded. But that's war and PRC produces enough of almost everything domestically for indefinite war economy. PRC is not Japan who needs to supply reources outside to maintain war economy. Of course no one is as blessed as US.
> world wants the western model Democracy index is declining globally, including in post soviet states, majority of whom are not even flawed democracies. Countries seem to be converging more towards PRC model if anything, including recent EU censorship and west broadly re-adopting PRC tier industrial policy.
> People migrate to the west Rich west with migration driven economies good at brain draining sure, but MENA authoritarian states get plenty of expats as well.
>former Soviet territory wants to join the EU For security not governance model. They've remained authoritaran/hybrid and general trend on democracy index in last few years have been decline.
The Russian stock market still hasn't even opened this week. They are basically going to have to start over economically. They are not going to build back the same way as they did the past 20 years. We have basically left them no choice other than to build back with China.
I think history will view this decision to completely cut them off from the Western financial system as a huge mistake. A completely myopic decision.