Armenia’s miserable dilemma
mailchi.mp
mailchi.mp
It's a pretty difficult situation and it will be interesting to see how the government is going to work around it. Personally, I am looking for a way out before it's too late. There aren't very many of them with my citizenship, though.
In Germany, that may have been motivated by corruption - there has been a huge scandal involving a bunch of Conservative politicians [1].
[1]: https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aserbaidschan-Aff%C3%A4re
It's very sad and I agree that the second war was also terrible, unjustified and the whole thing would best be solved by negotiations.
Armenians started assaulting and expelling Azerbaijanis back in 1987 (Kapan/Kafan). This happened before Sumgait/Baku pogroms.
Everyone gets uptight about the word "uncivilized," but this kind of generational tribal conflict _is_ a failure of civilization. I don't know what causes civilization (it sure ain't skin tone), but without clear villain/victim narratives, and heroes to root for (brave Ukrainians fighting for their own liberation), no one will care. And that's tragic, too, but it's not a commentary on the underlying tragedy of human suffering and death, that people in every nation hurt the same.
And yes - Armenians are failing to be in any way rational about the long standing conflict.
The land in question consists of two parts. The former Nagorno-Karabach Autonomous Oblast (NKAO) and a region which is de jure part of Azerbaijan, which was captured in a war that resulted from Azerbaijan's invasion of the NKAO.
The NKAO is not a de jure part of Azerbaijan, as can be seen from the Soviet secession law of 1991, which is the law which permitted Azerbaijan's secession from the Soviet Union. The law itself can be found in English translation on http://soviethistory.msu.edu/1991-2/shevarnadze-resigns/shev... , but basically, autonomous oblasts vote separately from Soviet Republics, and do not automatically secede with their republics unless they hold a separate vote to do so.
When Azerbaijan seceded from the Soviet Union no such vote was held in Nagorno-Karabach. In my view the correct legal interpretation is thus that they remained part of Soviet Union until it was dissolved, at which point they became an independent state.
This is very important, because Azerbaijan has been shooting people in the NKAO for no reason whatsoever, and I assume that's it's purely a matter of killing Armenians, so it can't be part of Azerbaijan: this makes the legal situation very convenient-- countries like Spain, which does not want to accept a separate Catalonia, or Basque country would not make themselves into hypocrites, or set a precedent against themselves, by recognizing the NKAO, or Artsakh as it now calls itself.
Sorry, but no. The demands and even the Minsk agreements were completely incompatible with Ukrainian sovereignty. It would have been easier to demand Ukraine recognize LDNR and Crimea, than to implement Misk 2 in its form.
I can easily lay blame on Germany for being so nindmumbigly stupid with forcing Minsk 2 on Ukraine. You've seen how well Russia played Merkel, when Ukranian president snapped a pencil.
And finally - there was no goal of letting Ukraine make its own decisions on Russian side. This war was inevitable, since western powers refused to provide proper defensive capabilities to Ukraine - specially AA.
Armenia is the aggressor here.
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_Nations_Securit...
[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Khojaly_massacre
[3] https://www.meydan.tv/en/article/ghost-town-of-aghdam/
[4] https://www.reddit.com/r/azerbaijan/comments/jumrv3/on_the_l...
[5] https://reliefweb.int/report/armenia/armeniaazerbaijan-myths...
In the meanwhile please refer to bombing of stepanakert with cluster munitions and precision bombing of maternity wards, hospitals and churches.
Disclaimer: Turkish here. I do not deny the Armenian Genocide, or think it was right for Azerbaijan to reclaim Karabakh with this way.
You are falling to the same fallacy as the Turkish government:
* Claiming Khojali massacre is a lie, disregarding the documented facts. Do not bring yourself down to the same level as genocide deniers; they will beat you with experience.
* The "they did that too" argument; as if any horrible act legitimizes the other one.
So, it makes a much better discussion if we all agree on documented facts and try to move forward from there (if there is any solution to move forward to). The "Armenian Genocide didn't happen" versus "Khojali Massacre didn't happen" discussion seems childish at this point, and it is not going to help either side in the long run.
You haven't presented a single shred of evidence disproving my claims - because you can't.
Khojaly massacre is recognized by various governments and international organizations:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_recognition_of_t...
822:
> Calls for the cessation of hostilities and the withdrawal of all occupying forces from the Kelbajar district and other recently occupied areas
853:
> calls on the withdrawal of the occupying forces from the district of Agdam and other recently occupied areas of the Republic of Azerbaijan
874:
> Reaffirms sovereignty and territorial integrity of the Azerbaijani Republic
> calls for the preservation of the ceasefire, cessation of hostilities and withdrawal of forces from recently occupied districts of the Republic of Azerbaijan
884:
> calls for the "withdrawal of occupying forces" from the Zangelan district and the city of Goradiz
Nation states are organized by power laws. Out of the 200+ countries, more than 150 are effectively "irrelevant". These small "sovereign" countries are geographically outside the main power blocks (US/Canada, EU, SE Asia, Russia) and thus have fragile security.
Which means they're not really sovereign. They're forced to align with a power block (in a rare case multiple ones) to get access to trade in exchange for security.
Sounds like a mob deal really. Give me access to your commodities (most of these countries are commodity producers, not advanced economies) or you get no aid in security. Some countries are so irrelevant that despite trading commodities, they still get no security when the need is there. Not worth defending.
Or, the aggressor is too big to take on, so we stand by and do nothing. Altogether it's a geographic lottery of arbitrary nation-states.
It's what we all desire and have in common. It's not even an ideology, they are common sense motivators for any living thing in general.
Everything else is learned behavior: nationalism, culture, religion. False ideologies that divide instead of unite.
Interesting, I hadn't considered that. Caspian Report is a big one, from an Azeri.
It’s relatively easy for us in the West to call balls and strikes for some actors, but much more tricky when it comes to other third parties (like Armenia).
Along the same lines I think it’s easy to forget that imposing sanctions and voting against the interests of a major power is, in a way, a privilege because it always has a cost. Even among some of the major European countries like Germany you can see that the economic realities of sanctioning Putin ran the risk of being too burdensome. If a country as wealthy and influential as Germany needs to coordinate among all of their allies (and still be prepared to bear a significant cost at home!) in order to make sanctions against Russia feasible I’m not sure how Russia’s smaller, non-EU neighbors could possibly be expected to do the same.
But in some circumstances, the message sent by abstaining from a vote can be just as loud (and brave) as voting yes or no.
"The main combatants were Azerbaijan, with support from Turkey and foreign mercenary groups on one side; and the self-proclaimed Republic of Artsakh and Armenia, on the other. It was the latest escalation of an unresolved conflict over the region, which was annexed to Azerbaijan during the Soviet era and internationally recognized as part of Azerbaijan, but partially governed by Artsakh, a breakaway state with an Armenian ethnic majority."
We don't want to go back to the borders of historic Armenia for the same reason we don't want to go back to the 1988 borders — it's history: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Armenia#/media/File:Arshakuni_...
I hope that people in the outside world will understand the dilemma Armenia is in, sitting as it does between hostile neighbours Turkey to the West and Azerbaijan to the East. National security is not an abstract concern here, it is an everyday reality. I hope one day it will be different for you and your people
I don't understand. Azerbaijan took Nagorny Karabakh by force. What exactly Russia stopped there? Advance of Azerbaijan deeper, into undisputed Armenian territory? I don't think so.
I think another interesting dilemma is that the Armenian diaspora is living in large numbers in two world powers. I feel like they can get more powerful economically and politically than the regular Armenian folks living in Armenia. Thus there is a foreign(?) influence in their democracy. (I'm not an expert...)
Lastly, maybe I'm optimistic, but I think there is an opportunity for peace in the region. I support recent forward-thinking and peaceful messages from Turkey and Azerbaijan. As a Turk, I want to see peace, friendship, and economy flourish between the nations. This will only give more options and prosperity to all of us who live here, and take options from others.
Definitely. Unfortunately that meant that an ethnic Armenian became head of RT, Russian's premier state propaganda vehicle, who is currently supporting the war on Ukraine.
You shouldn't immediately assume ill intent.
This one’s closer to Stockholm syndrome. Russia sells weapons to Pakistan; it’s devolving into a Chinese vassal. India notices this, hence its purchases of e.g. French fighters, but it’s less a dilemma than a bad position.
Russia (or Putin, to be frank) chose to try restoring the empire. Ottoman Sultans were trying to do the same as well, and failing. Atatürk, saw this and decided to create a Turkish identity, which was far from the main identity of the Ottomans. Some minorities were also integrated into this identity, using the language or religion.
The Armenians however, being one of the oldest settlers in Anatolia, shared none of these. As well as the Kurds and the Greek. Many were displaced (and yes, it was a genocide, I'm not dancing around the word) and suffered a lot more than it's imaginable today.
So I understand why they are afraid of their neighbor, and therefore skeptical towards NATO.
Most of the Turkish (the minority I'm in, being the exception) don't want to accept any stain on their saviors history, so they deny any wrongdoing with passion. Their (well, our) whole identity is created through that process, you have to understand the sensitivity. Many like me are coming to terms with what actually happened, but it's hard. The religious barrier is also not making things easier for many others.
I really wish eventually Turkey will recognize what happened, and some signs of diplomacy will start to show. Until then, I totally understand the Armenian position.
I'm living in another country now, and my favorite restaurant has Armenian owners. We are good friends. They do support Ukraine in this war, but still show sympathy to the Russian ambitions. These things are hard to change and are ingrained in our brains when we are growing up, and we should be okay with it. This is how being respectful to other peoples opinions work.
Disclosure: I consider myself of Turkish origin, not that I don't have my identity crises every now and then.
1. Russia wants to eliminate Ukraine, and Armenia is the sole explicit supporter
2. Russia did the same in 1915, arming Armenian Dashnaks to kill 500K to 1million of their neighbors; Turkish or Kurdish civilians unprotected due to Ottoman war against Russia.
3. Russia in 1990 punished Azerbaidjan protests in Baku and used Armenia as a puppet which occupied not only Karabagh but an additional 20% of Azerbaijan land and killed and displayed 100K to 1million people.
4. Ataturk's presence and war against occupants from Italy, England, Greece, France starts in 1919 long after the world war 1. So your interpretation is wrong.
Finally yes I'm sad for the deaths, like everyone in Turkey. But we're sick of people who omit 5 million Turkish deaths in Balkans and Caucasus.
5. My several best mates in Turkey are Armenians. I love their everyhing. But I think Armenian nationalist heritage of Russia supported aggresiveness hurts all neighbors including Georgia too.
Armenia's sole friends are Russia and Iran - and that is not a coincidence.
Of course, such a large embassy isn't being used only for visas, conducting local diplomacy, and USAID operations :)
1. What? 2. Genocide denial talking point straight from the hurriyet. Massacres had been going on for 20 years in 1915. 3. Armenia didn't occupy anything until 1992. In 1990 people in NKAO were speaking of independence as were people in the rest of AZSSR, in 1991 Soviet Union with the support of AZSSR was ethnically cleansing parts of AZSSR of Armenian militias. It wasn't until 1992 that after being besieged for a year NKAO defenders broke out and started occupying anything. 4. The civilians that were death marched into the Middle East were causing those millions of deaths?
A widespread opinion is that the 2020 war was enabled/allowed by Russia to punish Armenia for its drift towards the West. Personally I find this scenario reasonably probable.
This is a little bit of overstatement.
As a result of mass protests prime minister resigned. Emergent leader of the protests won elections and became prime minister. At some point later after vote of no confidence he won elections again.
It's not drifting to the West, it's changing government by elections, what made Russia to put pressure to Armenia
I do find that Pashinyan's drift towards France and the U.S. was quite pronounced, by the way.
Why is that likely? (I'm not skeptical, I really don't know and this stuff is hard to google)
I mean that's means, not motive. "They have weapons, and therefore they will kill everybody" makes no sense to me.
First, Turkey and Azerbaijan are effectively dictatorships flying under the radar using oil money and “west-friendly” trade policies.
Second, Armenia has been Christian for as long as Christianity has existed. Turkey and Azerbaijan are Muslim. There are millennia of wars and conflict over forced conversion that have resulted in “Armenia is the devil” propaganda making its way into the Turk cultures.
Third, in the Turk and Azeri mind, Armenia is the one threat to their “Turkic manifest destiny.” They believe the Caucus should be theirs in order to create a unified “great” Turkic civilization.
So yes, when these countries have the means to buy very efficient weapons, Armenian lives become at risk.
Correct, that's why I asked!
(do no further research before watching this movie, you will thank me)
Surprisingly large number of people believe that if people in the neighbouring city vote to speak on their language and govern themselves locally, they deserve punishment up to death.
And there is similarly large number of people who believe that it is noble to die for a line on the map.
So forgetting history would have a very small effect only on a very small number of conflicts.
During the war, both Armenian and Azerbaijani forces were doing a kind of kabuki dance, provoking the other side into bombarding either Armenia or Iran, to trigger either regional powers' intervention in the conflict.
It's a sad reality for the Armenian people that they were never truly independent and sovereign, but always a protectorate of the Iranians, Romans, Byzantines, Turks or Russians. I think everyone in Western leadership circles (or at least those who can actually place Armenia on a map) recognizes that and there is not the antagonism against them that, say, Belarus or to a lesser extent Serbia is experiencing.
The Azerbaijanis were certainly in close coordination with the Russians to establish what the Russian red lines were, and go right up to them, but no further.
https://www.thehindu.com/opinion/lead/the-anatomy-of-indias-...
> But Russia did stop it. No matter what.
Such a surprise for me.
It's not because he's a warmonger he's controlling the Armenia-Azerbaijan issue. He controls the Armenia-Azerbaijan issue because he's a warmonger and they're scared of the Ukrainian invasion level of shit he will do to them if they don't comply.
Surely this Russian invasion has dispelled all doubt on the NATO argument here. Every country like Poland and the Baltics that requested to join NATO got to live in peace free from Russian invasion. Ukraine wasn't able to and was thus invaded. 5,000+ are dead because of this. A country being in NATO is unacceptable to Putin because it then means they can't be threatened and invaded. From the ashes of the USSR, Poland and the Baltics have been prospering into great standards of living, while the kleptocrats that control Ukraine, Belarus, and Russia have pilfered their people's country enriching themselves. Every country has requested to join the alliance. While Russia invades multiple countries who aren't. It's pretty simple and clear what's going on.
Discussions between Baker and Gorbachev, that were rebuffed by diplomats as infeasible when checking if it could be put in a treaty, and which Gorbachev and other Soviet diplomats did not care to put in the treaty, are no way to conduct global diplomacy. Every treaty will start with countries' diplomats discussing things and seeing what deal they can work it. You can't bind people to everything they say in first talks. Insane. Meanwhile, Russia breaks multiple signed treaties, like the ones respecting Ukraine's territory for giving up nuclear weapons and invading when there's the Minsk Protocol. These are legally binding agreements, and yet you're hung up on something that was briefly approached 30 years ago. Also insane.
PS. You should know that Russia will be closing the borders soon and you will be stuck in a place where criticizing your government will land you 15 years in a gulag. Feel free to join the 100 other countries where you can talk shit about any government any day of the week on the news. Obviously it is a scary and huge undertaking. However the standards of living offered by western countries will be unparalleled by the currently crumbling Russian economy. I'm talking about 30,000,000 ruble/yr compensation in the US and we'd love to have you contribute.
In addition, according to statements by some of the employees, Zaporozhye NPP transferred some nuclear materials for scientific research related to plans to develop Ukrainian nuclear weapons. The IAEA inspections were aware of the transfer of nuclear materials for military needs.
When a free and independent Cuba placed nuclear missiles under America's belly, no one cared about its free and independent status.
When Russia defends its state interests, I only hear that I am going to the Gulag. no one will talk about how many people will never be able to leave Guantanamo. No one will count how many wars the US has unleashed. no one will remember the bombing of Yugoslavia.
if you're really interested in my contributions, you'll get them from whatever country I want. if you just don't want to see the existence of Russia, you just continue the stories about the Gulag.
PS I also see how other countries close their airspace to Russia, and not vice versa.
I believe the war with Ukraine is Putins catastrophic mistake. The danger is that he will drag down his neighbours or maybe the world with him.