Don't Cancel Regular Russians
reason.com
reason.com
Good. That's the point. Their country started a war, and they're the only ones who can stop it without triggering a nuclear crisis. They have to care.
And since they don't care, sanctions and boycotts are making it personal for them in a non-deadly way.
In the past, if your country's fascist dictator invaded another country, you got bombed. Now you just have a drop in quality of life. It seems like a much better type of warfare.
There's a lot of naivety being bandied about in the last week. Everyone seems to agree Putin isn't really democratically elected (though are vague on the details of how he rigs this, beyond controlling TV channels), at the same time, somehow he's a dictator only because ordinary Russians just can't be bothered getting rid of him. This is a contradiction. Dictators stay in power even if almost everyone in a country wants to get rid of them because they have set things up that way. This is why sanctions never seem to work.
Thus we - the civilized world - have no choice. Sanctions influencing the living conditions of regular Russians are our sole weapon.
People are not vague about this. You just haven't bothered reading the details, it seems.
Putin:
- arrests and kills innocent political opponents
- controls the media
- kills journalists
- kills whistleblowers
- controls the (opaque) ballot-counting process, allowing him to change vote counts without any chance for an audit
- monopolizes poll workers
This has been covered extensively by the Carter Center, every major news publication in the US and Western Europe, and (I'm sure) quite a few blogs and comment sections.
> at the same time, somehow he's a dictator only because ordinary Russians just can't be bothered getting rid of him. This is a contradiction.
Most dictators in history were overthrown by their allies or their citizens. It's not a contradiction.
With today's technology, you still can't quite have 100% control over a populace. If every adult suddenly decided to overthrow you, you'd still lose. This may change with improved autonomous warfare, but for now, it's possible for civilian uprisings to win.
That doesn't make someone not a dictator. You're using an extreme definition of "dictator" if it must be someone who cannot be overthrown.
Just as we had tyrant kings who were sometimes killed by lynch mobs, so too are there dictators who are overthrown by popular uprisings.
Very few dictators in history have been overthrown by their autonomous citizen uprisings, and even when that has occurred the result is often ... more dictators. See: Egypt. Syria. Revolutionary France. China. And of course, Soviet Russia.
"Just as we had tyrant kings who were sometimes killed by lynch mobs"
I can't think of any examples of this happening in all of English history, but there were a lot of kings so maybe I missed one. The most famous similar event, the Peasant's Revolt, seemed at first to succeed but then ended with the rebels all being killed by the King. Mostly, tyrant kings stayed on the throne until they died of other causes like war or disease. In the case of Cromwell overthrowing the king, that's another example of one dictator being replaced by another.
This whole idea that it's easy to create a stable democracy, that all you need to do is get rid of one guy at the top, is the basic failing of understanding that led to the west's mistakes in Iraq and Afghanistan. The USA spent 20 years and untold amounts of resources trying to turn Afghanistan into a modern democracy, and literally the same week they left it went back to being a dictatorship of the Taliban. I don't think anyone knows how to reliably create stable democracies. Arguably even west Europe doesn't: see the massive 'elite' convulsions over Brexit, an act largely justified by the fact that the EU is itself a dictatorship (try to find out how and why exactly chief lawmaker von der Leyen got her job, and see for yourself). Where was all the outpouring of international support for democracy, self-determination and the ordinary people overthrowing foreign dictators then? Hmm, there wasn't any.
That’s because supporting the policies targeted by those sanctions is policy supported by the people writing those laws, not because they don't think sanctions work.
If they didn't believe sanctions (and boycott/divestment, which is the same thing without government mandate) worked, they wouldn't blatantly violate free speech and association rights to suppress them, and advocacy for them.
>Good. That's the point.
You think it's good that roughly 1 million children in Iraq died due to US sanctions too?
In my opinion, thinking collective punishment is valid is a sign of moral bankruptcy.
- A million Russian children are not going to die. Not even 1,000 will.
- Putin, unlike Hussein, has thousands of nuclear weapons.
- Russia, unlike Iraq, invaded a sovereign, democratic country in order to subjugate it under a violent dictator.
> In my opinion, thinking collective punishment is valid is a sign of moral bankruptcy.
Economic punishment for Russians is better than death for Ukrainians. Those are the options.
If Putin were unchecked in his conquest of Ukraine, he would take other countries and kill thousands more people.
You say you think collective punishment is morally bankrupt without saying what a more moral alternative is to stop Putin (or perhaps you think tens of thousands of Ukrainians should be left to die instead?)
This scenario is why SWIFT's % of total international transactions has been declining for years. Sanction powers will be removed from western countries shortly by routing around them.
A large % of our economy is financial services, the market will inevitably crash when alternate routes are chosen.
In the mean time, try to think more about the actual people who are getting killed, losing their homes everything they have. And they don't know if their family members are alive or not. Don't play victim while you're at least contributing to the war efforts with your taxes. Never mention what Russian military did in Syria for years so it is not even something new.
sorry for being harsh, I understand that many Russians are against the war and get caught in sanctions but trying to play the victim card without taking into consideration that silence here is not acceptable is hard to believe.
Does that make it right? No, of course it doesn't. But it is is absolutely predictable.
'Regular Russians' at least are perceived to have fractional responsibility. Even if in practice that translates into them not being able to do anything about it they are citizens of the aggressor country, whose army currently is in the process of brutally slaughtering the citizens of their neighbor - with whom they claim kinship - on a series of unbelievable pretexts.
6 degrees of Vladimir Putin ensures that sooner or later their frustration is going to make itself heard in the bunker. And if Russians have abdicated to the point that they believe that they can't do anything about it - which some people are already proving wrong - then they are - unfortunately - indistinguishable from the supporters of their regime.
This is all made much more complex because of state propaganda, general apathy in dictatorship countries when it comes to participation and the desire to believe the myths.
Head down and don't draw attention to yourself is a good way to survive in those countries. But it has to stop somewhere, and only Russians can make that work. A nationwide strike, hard to organize in the current circumstances, especially with the announced martial law, would go a long way towards crippling the war machine. But with Putin's support - incredibly - as high as it is I don't see that happening any time soon.
Yes, you do have a responsibility. Yes, it is sad that you may not be able to reach your mom. But that is as nothing compared to having your home bombarded out from under you.
Meanwhile, I take it that you are donating to doctors without borders and the Ukrainian defense forces to make the point that you too disagree with this war?
I donated $150 to UNHCR's Ukraine emergency the day the invasion started, but I am cautious to do this again because my bank may become unreliable and I should have cash to be able to eat in short term.
I do not even have a reason to use a Russian bank, but 2019 sanctions made all pre-paid debit plastic providers quit anyone with a Russian address; meaning I cannot accept money from a non-Russian customer to spend it outside of Russia except via a Russian bank, being a freelancer not rich enough to own property overseas and have a verifiable non-Russian address.
Addendum: I am envious of fellow Chinese freelancers, who happened to be born in a country which is not at war now and thus enjoys more favorable attitudes even as they can freely express their support for Xi and deny Tiananmen (and I do not fault them for it, since they were born in a country where they cannot choose what to think).
It is very very hard to surgically hit the Russian elite without also hitting the ordinary Russians. The problem with most of the sanctions is that the Russian elite won't care about them, but ordinary Russians are impacted greatly. This is as far as I can see unsolvable: sanctions are the 'soft' step prior to war, skipping it would be madness, if anything it shows the Russian leaders that the West is serious about this.
In the West people typically have no idea what it is like to live under a dictatorship regime. But there are some examples of how even in such countries major change was effected through mass protests. The chances of that materializing are very, very small. My own hope is that Putin's inner circle will decide to throw him under the bus rather than to risk a one way trip to the Hague. Right now they can still claim it was all Putin, if they wait another week their fate is sealed.
Russia had a fantastic chance to become a better country in the early 90's, they completely blew that and became a kleptocracy instead. So now we have mobsters with atomic weapons, and this is the predictable result.
As you wrote, emotional appeals do not mix well with logic -- but maybe dry logic is possible only from afar.
So, while I think the Russian people could have a role I don't think that will materialize.
Many in Russia are indigenous or semi-indigenous people native to various localities in the very sparsely populated Siberia, and they do not even speak Russian as their first language. They routinely get searched at subway entrances and receive looks if they so much as take a walk on a street in St. Petersburg because they look Asian.
Now imagine they were asked to rise together with the people who scorned them all these years in order to protest an invasion waged by a dictator they did not elect against another ethnically Slavic population.
So we basically exclude those.
Whomever remains needs to rise and risk being imprisoned or beaten either by the police or by brainwashed fellow citizens.
Addendum: I would cheer for them, but I do not have enough national pride to quit my job, return to the country and join them.
They are as much a victim here, but still they are victims on the very, very wrong side of this war. Some of those kids captured by the Ukrainians are likely not even 18 and are clearly from the far eastern part of Russia.
And that is also why I don't think there will be an uprising in Russia: the cosmopolitans will find it easier to believe the propaganda than to rise up because effectively they can make themselves believe this isn't their war. Yet.
(Edit: you were right, getting similar information from some friends.)
I don't know, I know exceedingly little about Russian military. I did not serve.
Every time I am slightly hopeful, I am again disheartened by how brainwashed people can be. Apparently, among the ethnic minorities sent to Ukraine some do indeed support Putin.
My parents grew up in USSR, were aware of repressions and the Tiananmen uprising, and shared this sentiment with me when I was growing up. However, I know some others imbued their kids with nostalgic feelings about the Soviet Union.
When and where I went to school, teachers were more or less independent about how history was taught. These days I hear there are military parades and strong ideological side.
Some people overcome this, but an average person may not be equipped to live a normal life constantly filtering propaganda and questioning everything they see or hear in the media, maintaining independent thought and internal distrust towards vocally expressed opinions by people of status. Especially someone well-integrated, with a mostly positive childhood and no major trust issues.
For example
>Again, the link between the two goes woefully unexplained. Russian tanks have entered Ukraine, so Disney's films can't enter Moscow's cinemas?
Russia is breaking international law and killing people, so companies don't want to do business in Russia. It's not some incredible leap.
>That strategy is ethically problematic given that it requires harming millions of ordinary Russians in order to induce a policy change in a government they have no say over.
This is a fundamental misunderstanding of the logic behind sanctions. The sanctions are in place because Western nations have no choice but to find ways to harm Russia in response to the illegal invasion. The suffering of ordinary Russians is the direct result of Putin's actions, he's the one causing this to happen. In fact for months leading up to this the West made it perfectly clear this is what they'd be forced to. With no sanctions, the cost of Putin breaking international law would be basically 0 and therefore likely to precipitate much further suffering.
Frankly, I'm really tired of these incredibly self-satisfied sites like "reason.com" pumping out some rubbish. It's just such a staggering self-awareness that I would have thought most people grew out of in their early teens.
That's one choice. Another is to engage in non-violent protest, risking freedom and retaliation against friends and loved ones.
There are various forms of violent resistance, too, sabotaging or attacking Putin and his oppression machine.
Choosing to try to wait things out, not actively removing yourself, or not trying to remove Putin is cooperation and enablement. The average Russian citizen bears responsibility for allowing and enabling Putin to abuse power. They were born into it, having that responsibility forced on them whether they wanted it or not.
By collaborating, you're stuck with accepting the consequences. Even if you had no other choice than to refuse doing anything at all (and I'm not saying I or anyone else could or would choose any differently than most Russians. It's tragically unfair and nobody deserves that. )
There's also the propaganda issue. Otherwise ethical and intelligent Russians are in information silos, unaware of the greater context and facts surrounding the invasion and atrocities being waged by Putin.
All of the choices they have before and behind them might be awful, but they are still choices with consequences. Namecheap and other companies and people have chosen to not enable or condone or collaborate. They know the consequences fall on regular people, but not inconveniencing average Russians is an insufficient reason to continue collaborating with Putin.
The Russian people do not deserve this. They don't deserve to be tainted with the slaughter of Ukrainians and the insanity of Putin. Their history is terrible and tragic, and their people have been smashed down repeatedly, and I deeply believe they're entitled to better.
Unfortunately that's not something outsiders can do for you. Sometimes horrible things happen to good people, but when a tyrant like Putin lashes out, those of us on the outside can choose to refuse any dealings with the country he's taken over. The cost of continuing to do business with Russia is accepting responsibility for collaboration, for enabling Putin to continue abusing his power. No profit is worth that.
Most of us know we are lucky, in the west, that we were born into a world where our ancestors and predecessors paid the price for freedom from tyranny. Through no effort of our own we have the privilege of more choices than others in the world - it's a cosmic fluke. Through freedom of speech and association, we also know why our systems are important, that they offer societies the ability to correct mistakes, and our collective accountability moderates the way we behave towards other countries.
I wish the best for Russians, and I hope the situation rapidly turns around, that their countrymen seize freedom and live their best lives. I hope they can see why some of us can't do business with Russia in good conscience until Putin falls or fails. I truly hope the pointless loss of lives ends, for the sake of both Ukraine and Russia.
In some ways, the greatest tragedy here is that Putin has violently usurped the freedom of his people, and is wasting their lives for his own pride and greed.
Or modern Chinese. "We will sanction you for sending Uyghurs to camps. We will hate you for your government's failure to cooperate with the study into the origins of COVID, which claimed times of magnitude more lives." You know, maybe they would have woken up to the lies they've been fed.
So yeah, there is a double standard, but whatever. I am immune to it as I do not have much national pride left to be offended too much. However, I can see it having a chilling reverse effect on some of the people I know.
Doubt we will see an uprising, more likely we will see a new satellite state of China and Xi's sphere of influence extending to the North pole.
1. In Belarus (a Russian-speaking country, a former Soviet Union country, very similar to Russia and an ally of Russia) - they could not oust Lukashenko even by staging huge demonstrations https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020%E2%80%932021_Belarusian_p... . Around 150000-250000 at demonstration in the capital https://static.dw.com/image/55155947_401.jpg. Many were brutally beaten, tortured in detention centers, massively held in small rooms, beaten in police cars even those who were just walking by. IT DIDN'T CHANGE ANYTHING. Lukashenko is still in power, although a year ago it seemed to many that the tyrant had been overthrown. Many oppositioners were forced to flee the country under threat of death, disability, rape, or the removal of their children. Russia is a tougher system and is run by a KGB professional.
How it starts: "Learn from the Belarusians to defend democracy": what the Western press says about the protests, Lukashenko and Putin" https://www.bbc.com/russian/features-53802878
How it ends: "The Revolution of Failed Hopes. How Belarus went from massive demonstrations to repression in a year" https://www.bbc.com/russian/features-58016427
2. The times have changed. Russia has studied the experience and methodology of overthrowing governments. There is an emphasis on the security forces. You will not get past them. They will be supplied even if ordinary people starve to death. They will get their heads bashed in and write it off as an attack on the police. There is active monitoring and opposition on the internet. People on reddit are now complaining that their accounts and channels are being blocked for supporting Ukraine. Do I need to explain how much of the suppression of protests is INSIDE RUSSIA when Russia easily censors Western media and Western bloggers through bots? The people couldn't even overthrow Maduro, and the Russian authorities have a full picture of what is going on and what threatens her internally. 3. The pressure inside the elites is impossible because they are all under sanctions. Many of them have their assets frozen, they are also banned from entering the EU and the USA. 4. Russia has a huge history of concentration camps and torture. Last year there was a huge leak of rape torture archives. Protesters going to rallies are sometimes not just beaten, but are put in jail for several years in general. 5. Navalny, the country's main opposition figure, has been jailed and is likely to get more time in prison. He will probably be in jail at least until 2030-2034. He also thought it was enough not to be afraid and returned to the country after the poisoning. Now he is being psychologically tortured in prison. 6. Many people really can't leave the country. According to sociologists' calculations - more than half of young people dream of emigrating.