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Comment by jmpman | Hacker News Reader

Isn’t Western Europe still taking Russian oil and gas?

Why wouldn’t Ukraine attack the Russian gas pipelines? I understand that a conventional strike with an army is never going to happen, but there are many other options.

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Yes they still buy our oil and gas, and neither side attacks the pipeline despite the war, but I think it's a matter of time. In a couple of years Europe will stop buying our energy, but the consequences of this war (police presence, peacekeeping, rebuilding) will last for decades.

If they blow up the gas pipelines that transit Ukraine, Europe would be forced to turn on Nord Stream 2, which is 100% complete and just waiting for regulatory approval. Then Ukraine would be cut out entirely. It's in their best interest to leave the pipelines alone.

> Europe would be forced to turn on Nord Stream 2, which is 100% complete and just waiting for regulatory approval.

Nord Stream 2 is history. The company behind it went bankrupt two days ago or sth. like this. Everybody who still held to that project in Germany has turned it down. Nord Stream 2 won't happen, instead NLG from Saudi Arabia seems to be a thing now, anything but supporting Russia and its war.

Also, Germany declared that it wants to be energy-independent by 2035, 15 years earlier than planned as a result of the Russian aggression.

The pipeline is still sitting there ready to go. I agree that it is highly unlikely to get used at this point, but if hypothetically Ukraine started blowing up pipelines, I don't think Europe would have much of a choice. It would be hard to stand on moral principle when elderly people are freezing to death and there are rolling brownouts.

winter is over

Winter is coming.

You’re right, it’s just sitting there, on the bottom of the ocean, running for hundreds of miles, undefended.

I’m not suggesting Ukraine would do it now. But there are going to be 40M people with lost loved ones who are speak Russian, look like the local population, and realize that the way to exact revenge is through pipeline sabotage. Destroy the pipelines and you’ve destroyed 50% of the Russian GDP.

Why would Ukraine leave the pipelines alone? There will no longer be a freely elected government in Ukraine. None of the profit of the pipeline will go towards Ukraine once they’re a puppet state.

As for Nord Stream 2, a small underwater autonomous vehicle could easily be built in a Ukrainian refuge’s garage in Poland.

Russia has underestimated how easily attacks can be performed by individual actors, who are properly motivated, against thousand mile long soft targets.

> Isn’t Western Europe still taking Russian oil and gas?

Not really. It is still possible technicaly but traders are afraid of buying / making market as they predict sanctions to escalate and traders could be left with unsellable assets on their hands. The price of ural went as low as 20 dollars per barel (with 115 dollars for WTI and Brent)

So the only country that is at the moment actively contracting ural (Russian brand of crude oil) is India. Shame on you India... China scooped one or two tankers but that's it.

Also shipping companies aren't waiting for sanctions and refuse to contract Russian exports...

https://www.wsj.com/articles/russia-scrambles-to-maintain-oi...

https://www.freightwaves.com/news/shipping-isnt-waiting-for-...

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