I agree the situation has changed. I think it’s fair to say his summary of the situation was correct in 2015+, and that the underlying facts and desires of all countries involved have not notably changed in 8 years, other than Russia invading (as I guessed earlier, they are forced to play the worst hand).

I’m not sure the most recent election map is important. The competition was an independent, and the current president passed a bill that removed minority rights in 2014 to limit Russian influence.

Regarding Donbas, I have no comment because I think the order of events is very important there but I’m not an expert.

As for your last paragraph, you’ve lost me. Mearsheimers video is not a conspiracy to explain away current events. You realize Putin is capable of saying one thing and doing another? Or making up an irrelevant excuse to appease his citizens?

I don’t think you understand that empires don’t care about other countries’ rights when they feel threatened. It is the US and Russias right to determine the fate of Ukraine because they have the power and motivation to make that decision, despite it not being the moral or fair. The world isn’t a fair place.