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Comment by baybal2 | Hacker News Reader

Russia has around 1000 warhead maximum possible first launch capacity in the most optimistic scenario.

If Russia saves submarine second strike, it will be 800.

If Russia will chose to hold off land-based second strike, it goes to 550.

If Russia chose to reserve some of its most powerful ICBMs as a reserve for the "dire friend" China, I would give it to be 300 warheads.

If the nuclear command & control centre is destroyed by a pre-emptive strike, there will be no coordinated first strike, but uncoordinated launches by individual units, highly conditional on officers resolve to fight an now unwinnable war.

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> If the nuclear command & control centre is destroyed by a pre-emptive strike, there will be no coordinated first strike, but uncoordinated launches by individual units, highly conditional on officers resolve to fight an now unwinnable war.

Except Russia maintains a separate, fully automated system on a dead man’s trigger, specifically for this case scenario. This system reinforces the mutually assured destruction approach.

Do you know how such officers are chosen? I was speculating that these are relatively quiet, cushy postings. Or perhaps such postings are boring, and reserved for punishment? In any event, what are the odds that either a) a verified order from Putin is ignored, or b) that a field officer would launch based on loss of contact with C&C?

I get into such detail because it is my guess that Putin won't back down, and will escalate until he gives a launch order, and it will be up to these field officers to reject a first launch order (or question the veracity of a retaliatory launch order).

I have no idea, except that money is not spared on missile troops, and they are kept well fed at all times to ensure their loyalty. If you seen videos of Soviet missile submarines with Jacuzzi, this is about that.

So far one thing is universally confirmed, launch officers get autonomy when "Contact is lost, and Moscow is confirmed destroyed." How much destroyed is counted as destroyed? Nobody knows, probably because officers themselves don't know, and don't delve into such scenario.

> Soviet missile submarines with Jacuzzi

I find hard to believe that. Submarines are very cramped and would not have space for non-essentials. Also Russia is not know for caring for it's soldiers (or citizens).

https://www.reddit.com/r/submarines/comments/4qvi9l/hottub_s...

Remember, such luxuries are for missileers only. An average Russian barrack may not have constant electricity, heating, and Running water even today.

That's crazy.

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