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Comment by cutenewt | Hacker News Reader

Probably the last time Putin is going to grant any wishes to Xi

Russia is very much the junior partner in the relationship with China, and now that they have burned their bridges to the West they lack any leverage against China. They are going to have to defer a lot more going forwards.

Yup, as sole buyer China are going to set the price of Russia's oil and gas.

Does China have other sellers?

"Russia is very much the junior partner in the relationship with China"

Exactly, Putin is not the grand strategist the world thinks he is

Anyone that can make Switzerland and Sweden take sides against you isn't a grand strategist.

Putin just was, and remains, in a desperate place. Strategy is fine at leisure. He had no choice but to do something to seem strong, to remain in power. If this doesn't work, he may move on to something desperate.

that's not true at all, he doesn't need anything to remain in power, but if he wanted to get more popular among general population he could provided economic growth

Evidently he is not, then, interested in getting more popular, because the invasion is an economic disaster. But he doesn't get his power from popularity. He gets it by being the baddest ass on the totem pole.

Chances are the invasion on the northern and eastern fronts are more or less feints, and only the southern front actually matters to him, as it gets him full control of the Black Sea shore and the oil fields. He needs the Ukrainian forces fully occupied elsewhere, and doesn't much care what happens there as long as it absorbs enough of their attention.

Russia may become like a bigger North Korea. North Korea doesn't listen to China but it doesn't go out of it's way to piss China off. China props it up because it doesn't want a bigger humanitarian crisis on it's borders.

China will probably prop Russia up 1) It will get Oil and Gas cheaper 2) A mean Russia keeps the West from picking on China. 3) Russia has a lot of nukes and making it crazy helps nobody.

He might not have many friends to grant wishes for anymore.

These guys are tight. China has been migrating into Siberia for years.

"Digesting" Siberia.

Probably the last time Putin is going to grant anyone's wishes.

There's only one way for him out now, and it doesn't involve him being alive. It's only a matter of time at this point.

> There's only one way for him out now,

What way is that? Because I think the one he's banking on is victory in the war over the next four weeks.

Russia will suffer greatly under sanctions, but that itself is unlikely to bring him under.

> What way is that?

The Hitler 1945 option.

BTW, for those who haven't read it, one of the most chilling books on war is "The Last Days of Hitler" (https://press.uchicago.edu/ucp/books/book/chicago/L/bo362699...) which is a carefully researched (if imperfect) chronicle of ... well, the last days of hitler. With US and Russia approaching Berlin on two sides, and no hope whatsoever, Hitler commanded over a near-impenetrable bunker and refused to surrender. By the end, the US retreated and lets Russia do the last work, and german units fought westward to surrender to the US.

The other enlightening book is https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stalingrad_(Beevor_book) which shows just how truly absurd the war between Germany and Russia was and how megalomaniacal the leaders of those countries were.

Because after Russia "wins" comes the propaganda campaign, which will involve public executions and reeducation "camps" aimed at "proving" Putin's story about a Ukrainian Nazi genocide. This doesn't end with Putin going home and the violence ending. What will happen is that Putin will take Ukraine, and then the violence continues and gets worse.

His oligarchs are already scrambling. Usmanov lost his boat, Abramovich is trying to sell all his UK estates. The ordinary Russia can suffer, but I doubt Putin can keep going with his Oligarchs against him.

He is a resourceful survivor. Don't eulogize him before his time

Putin being deposed is the optimistic scenario, but I don't see it as the most likely one. He's pretty insulated from external attack, and he has internal dissent pretty locked down at this point. Hitler wasn't finished until the allies were rolling into Berlin. He fought off coup attempts well after it was clear the war was lost. Putin isn't going to be under nearly the same level of external pressure. Honestly I expect it's most likely the world is stuck with him until aging and/or disease make him unable to rule. Hope I'm wrong, of course.

You might be right, in this scenario Putin will cling on a la Bachar al Assad

20 years ago Russia had term limits for the president of 8 years I think...

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