Russia space agency head says satellite hacking would justify war: report | Hacker News Reader

Russia space agency head says satellite hacking would justify war: report

reuters.com

But there is already war. What else needs to be justified? And yes, as the other person has said, Rogozin has a big mouth. Russia does propaganda trying to scare everyone into silence, that is what this is about.

That's what Putin's nuclear saber rattling has been about; right now he has an epic column of armor stacked up on roads North of Kyiv. He knows that if the West were to intervene with Reapers and/or Tomahawks right now that column would be smashed, so he is making nuclear threats to keep that from happening.

It's not that simple. If the Tomahawks are launched from a US ship, then Russia could fire it's own missiles at the ship.

Or at the US...

"could fire it's own missiles at the ship"

1500 mile range allows them to reach Kyiv from off the coast of Europe or the Western end of the Mediterranean Sea. Putin would have to attack US ships in the Atlantic ocean to counter those. AGM-86 ALCMs could be launched from B-52s at similar ranges.

Russia has subs, ships and bombers too, they don't need to launch from land.

AGM-86 ALCM is with a nuclear warhead. Russia has nuclear ICBMs with 11000 miles range

AGM-86 CALCM have been used with conventional munitions in the Middle East. Operating from Germany, for instance, the attack could be performed without crossing non-NATO airspace, prior to Ukraine.

ICBMs can't be used against mobile targets like ships. High balletic arcs and travel times measured in the tens of minutes means anything that can move will easily do so. And judging by Russia's current military louadout, every warhead fancy enough to actually manuever to compensate either only exists on paper or partially disassembled in a Moscow lab

People forget that bombing Russia is very different from bombing the Middle East, they have the means to bomb back.

Reciting the Russian proverb — "if the enemy is mad at us, then we are doing everything right"

Current war is between Russia and Ukraine. NOT between Russia and other countries. Let's supposed somebody starts hacking Russian satellites. Kremlin says it's highly likely was done by Europe/USA (even if it's Ukraine) and respond in kind. By hacking theirs. What if it doesn't stop at mutual hacking? both USA and Russia armed forces have ASAT weapons. What next?

Even during peacetime, ought we not believe that massive mutual hacking already occurs? I see conflict as a gradient rather than as some discrete state where we check off boxes and say "Yes, we are now officially at war."

If they were smart, they would hack their own satellites and then claim Europe/USA did it

On better yet, not hack their own satellites and claim Europe/USA did.

Nonsense

Russia has been attacking most western countries since at least 2014, using active measures and numerous murders on foreign soil. Rus has also actively permitted ransomware gangs to work in their country as long as they attack only the west, and the result has already shut down at least hospitals and petrol supplies for the US for over a week; maybe not 'official' RUS govt hackers, but still condoned. I could go on...

This entirely unjustified assault on UKR, replete with blatnat war crimes, is merely a new escalation that finally got everyone's attention.

>>What if it doesn't stop at mutual hacking? both USA and Russia armed forces have ASAT weapons. What next? Yes, this is the picture - escalation, until the escalation stops.

But unilateral disarmament because one is afraid of consequences is not a viable path. The only way to fight dictators, despots, and authoritarians is to fight them. They do not stop by themselves, they only stop when others force them to stop. This is a very unpleasant task, but it must be done.

I have a feeling that the floodgates of shit have opened for Russia and it’s not easy to close them again.

Russia thrived off “this is the last time you’re getting away with this” for decades. Always demanding a 55-45 split, always threatening nuclear war. It generally worked, especially against a fragmented West, where you just had to pick one or two countries to break consensus.

But somehow now, as if in a phase transition, all the political dipoles arranged themselves against Russia. Perhaps because it’s one step too far. Perhaps because this time people feel like Russia really is within shooting distance of Europe. Or perhaps because people see that the Emperor is naked and angrily tells people what he will do when he finds a dressing gown, with none in sight.

This is another “don’t touch us or we’ll nuke you”, but this is, much like the Ruble, a rapidly devaluing currency.

As an aside: given the appalling state of Russian army in Ukraine, I wonder what their super-killer-invincible nuclear weapons are like. Not that I want to test this out.

The major risk with a Russian conflict is almost any invasion would put NATO troops near the Chinese border.

This act would probably draw China into the war. This is similar to what happened in Korea when American ground troops under MacArthur got too close to the Chinese eastern border.

It seems unlikely that China’s borders would be relevant in any scenario they wouldn’t support (basically only preemptive attacks on nuclear facilities). They have different leaders now and far more reason to be confident both that NATO has no interest in a war or chance of winning one.

It’s also hard to see much interest in a land war on that side of Russia. A nuclear exchange isn’t going to last very long and given Russia’s increasing dependency on China I’d bet on them being more supportive of an effort to oust Putin in favor of someone better for business before it hits that point.

I disagree. The freedom of navigation exercises held around China are always denounced by the current leadership.

Any "freedom of navigation" during an active conflict with an ally would understandably be considered a potential declaration of war. They may consider the risk too high not to respond, similar to the Korean war.

The main difference is they now have a modern military and dont have to rely on rural untrained farmers to win their battles.

What scenario do you think is likely where NATO forces would be anywhere near China’s borders?

Russia is a massive country with military installations across the whole subcontinent. I expect the defensive and offensive systems on the eastern side would be potential targets in any serious engagement.

Yes, but again how likely is a land war to come into the picture? If they're going after, say, airbases they're not doing that with a march from the border.

One of them would be where NATO and Russia end up in a conflict which causes China to decide Siberia needs to be "protected". There are some 35 million Russians living in a region covering 140% of that of China which houses 1.4 billion people. Rich in minerals, forests, water and many other resources it is only a matter of time before a conflict around this region arises.

As an aside: given the appalling state of Russian army in Ukraine, I wonder what their super-killer-invincible nuclear weapons are like. Not that I want to test this out.

I've been thinking the same thing. It's clear we've been overestimating Russian military capabilities for some time. The West is learning the emperor has no clothes when it comes to the Russian military (in reality it's more like the emperor's clothes aren't made of the finest material as we'd thought). I'm with you though, I really don't want to test out their nuclear capabilities.

Of course I wouldn't want to find out but does Russia really have the capacity to threaten anyone else with war at the moment? Before the invasion they amassaed 70% of their army next to Ukraine and the US say (and why would they lie) that they have committed 80% of them.

Not to mention that it's not going exactly according to plan there with probably thousands of russian casualties...

They can't win a war but they can end the world as we know it. Lavrov said WW3 will be nuclear.

https://www.reuters.com/world/russias-lavrov-says-third-worl...

Change the world, yes. End it, no.

If the Ukraine invasion is any indication of the might of Russia's military, it has demonstrated that Russia's might is largely tanks and mobile missile launchers. The US has assets in the air, on the ground and off the coast of Russia right now that are ready to redefine the meaning of "shock and awe" at the first sign of nuclear use. Putin has one chance to get his missiles off the ground before complete annihilation in a matter of minutes.

A little too optimist saying USA can stop thousands of nuclear launches at the same time, not even accounting for nuclear subs.

Once a massive nuclear attack starts, the only options are massively launching back, or not answering and hoping for the best, both for your country and the planet.

From what I've seen so far in this invasion, it appears the Russian military is as rotten as its leadership. Where are the fearsome Russian assets, the stealth bombers, the laser guided missiles, etc? They can't even control Ukraine's airspace. No, I don't think the optimism is unfounded.

I hope you are right but I'm not so optimistic. Even if 1% of Russian nukes make it, that would be a total disaster.

> the US say (and why would they lie)

you're not serious?

The Russian propaganda machine was crippled from the start, so we are only being exposed to the Western and Ukrainian propaganda machines. We should take every news with a minimum of skepticism.

Not with boots on the ground, but there are more ways to wage war, especially if the goal is revenge instead of occupation.

- They might have cyberwarfare capabilities they are not using against Ukraine, or have spies in place that can sabotage critical infrastructure.

- Their Avangard hypersonic glide vehicles can reportedly be equipped with conventional warheads (even though Russia probably only has a handful of them)

- They might think they can get away with limited nuclear strikes against non-NATO nations (unlikely, even if it doesn't start WWIII there would be no coming back from the resulting sanctions)

Of course if they do any of that they have to defend against counterattacks, but defending their territory is what the Russian army is best equipped to do.

> Without these, Rogozin said Russia will cancel the planned March 4 launch of 36 OneWeb satellites from the Baikonur cosmodrome, which Russia rents from Kazakhstan, without compensating OneWeb, the Russian news agency reported.

Right, looks like the cooperation between Russia and western countries when it comes to space launches is a thing of the past. Good thing NASA (or rather SpaceX) managed to get their launch system going on time. I also wonder what this means for the future of the ISS? I mean, the actual Russian astronauts are probably as appalled by this as anyone else, but what will their higher-ups decide?

Completely OT, but "Baikonur cosmodrome" is such a beautiful name. Shame we are using it in the context of war and destruction, and not in a futuristic Space Exploration, transhumanist one.

Russian people deserves a better government. The Chinese one played smarter.

Rogozin doesn't have the authority to say what can or cannot be used to justify war, does he?

He may not be able to declare it, but he can certainly say it. Whether it's truthful or not is another matter. He could be publicly stating policy (in which case his statement would be truthful, but not based on his authority) or blustering (in which case it's false).

Rogozin is famous for this kind of talk.

In 2014, after an airplane with him on board was denied entry to Romania due to EU sanctions, he threatened that he will return in a strategic bomber.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ukraine-crisis-romania-ru...

At this point it feels like I hear "We will consider X as a declaration of war" from Russia every day or so. It reminds me of the Uno Wild Card. I wonder if they're using it as a catch all for any gaps in their armor?

Can't handle more sanctions? Uno wild card! Don't want anyone supporting the Ukrainian defense effort? Uno wild card! Can't guarantee the security of satellites? Uno wild card!

As time goes by, Russia begins to look awfully similar to North Korea.

Maybe this comes along with pariah state status.

I think game theoretically these two countries have learned they can get things for free whenever they want by threatening the nuclear option.

I do fear the boy who cried wolf equivalent for nuclear threats is not a safe social situation for nuclear powers to be in.

More like what happens when you run out of "soft power" and have nukes.

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