But the nuclear attacks don’t scare me at this point. Best coping mechanism: stop lying to yourself that you must stay informed. Block your favorite news sites and focus on a project instead. Unless you want to get on a plane and go over there to fight (which the Ukrainian MOD has made an option for anyone who wants to [1]), what is your being informed actually doing for anyone at this point? If it is detrimental to your mental health trust me you should turn off the news and take care of yourself. Again, as someone whose home town is currently being shelled I think you should do that. Go create something useful in the world instead. That’s the right answer.
[1] https://kyivindependent.com/national/who-can-and-cant-join-u...
It's brutal logic but there is nothing that an average person can do to survive nuclear war. Only remote isolated farmer/survival communities will be able to make it, if they will survive nuclear winter.
Anyone else in long term will not be able to get food with no petrol, electricity and slowly starve to death. And even if you are in surviving community the life will be back to limited tech, village-state civilization.
For a more realistic view of nuclear war and its survivability, check out [2] (with a foreword by Edward Teller and author's note by Eugene Wigner of Wigner's friend fame).
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_winter#Criticism_and_d... [2] Kearny, C. Nuclear war survival skills
That will take a higher toll then you might expect
One way or another not a fun place to live
I'm not saying it's easy but it's the only life philosophy I read about that makes sense to me.
What's more likely to be nuked, London or Tirana?
Only 7 "urban areas" have more than 1 M inhabitants. Of those, the first two have almost 25% of the country's total population [0].
Also, I'd expect the huge and sparsely populated Nordic countries to fit the bill, too.
[0] https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liste_des_aires_urbaines_de_Fr...
But frankly, I don't believe a nuclear war is imminent. In spite of what we see in the new, Putin's army is moving on steadily and occupying more and more areas he wanted to have. At some point Ukraine will lose access to the sea. Then Putin can say, OK, I agree to peace - but he will never give the occupied areas back. And good luck getting these cities back without killing your own people - this is a completely different situation than defending a city that hasn't been captured yet.
Nuclear war would be possible if NATO decided to intervene. But they are crystal clear they will not and nukes are the only reason. Everybody is sending a lot of help, but not a single soldier (even though some individuals want to go on their own - but that's a completely different story than a military intervention).
At some level I'm afraid I think to myself: well my existence is a tiny cosmological insignificance, I cannot control that it is going to end at some point, and there's a significant likelihood it'll end in considerable suffering or in a way I can't predict.
It's hard to maintain that train of thought in the face of fear and I have little self-assurance that I'd manage it in more severe circumstances, but it is part of the process I use to deal with intrusive dark thoughts.
Every day in Ukraine there are people walking out in front of heavy mobile armaments with a single, hand-made incendiary, or just to stand in the way and demand that men with guns leave.
And every one of those people is making this rationalisation, at some level.
Stoics seek out likeminded friends, as well, I think. In this most recent case, more or less an entire country of them.
I always viewed Stoicism as a kind of Spock-like attitude. You can think rationally about something and not give in to emotions.
In this context I view it as being able to think clearly about what to do or reflect on it, but not give in to fear, anger or other emotions.
I am now dealing with two sick elderly parents. There are many many moments where I feel like dispair, fatigue, guilt or any other negative feeling. When these bad feelings pop up I actively try to focus on any task that can help their situation - make a phone call to some doctor or care provider, call them and ask them how they are, read about latest treatments etc. If I find that at this particular moment there's nothing much I can do - I try to let it slide. It's not under my control so no point in worrying.
It works surprisingly well many times, but there is no complete cure to worrying. Worrying is human.
It's best to take a break from reading too much about the current Ukraine situation. This doesn't mean being completely blind to it; however, balancing between your mental health and knowledge of current affairs will help you cope with the ongoing situation more than anything.
Much as an idea has no value, while an implementation might, engagement does not equate with amelioration.
But a homicidal dictator with his finger on the red button is concerning to put it mildly.
My way of approaching this is optimizing for survival. Getting a go bag, planning what to do when the sirens start going off. I understand there would be about 15 minute advance warning. I'm in central London, which if of course bad. But there is a strategy - to go to the Tube (underground trains) and then after the hit, use the tunnels to reach the outskirts of the city.
Russia doesn't have enough manpower to conquer Europe and nukes are highly unlikely. The narrative that Putin is mad is ridiculous, he just decided that isolation from Europe is the lesser evil compared to being surrounded by NATO countries.
Nukes are highly unlikely because retaliation would damage everyone on all sides, Putin is just using them as leverage.
Once one side has technology to somehow defend from enemy nukes, then nukes could become a viable option, albeit an incredibly risky one.
This is just bluffs and media spreading fear.
It may not be so ridiculous. If you watch his earlier public appearances - he's always a stone cold sociopath in control. In his latest appearances he's increasingly erratic and struggles to keep his cool. Remember he's 70 years old now which is well into the risk zone for serious health problems. Alzheimers? Terminal cancer? What would you do in his place if you were told that? What if he wants to go out with a bang? He couldn't just straight out declare war on NATO, what if by going after Ukraine he actually hopes for escalation?
Bonus : it feels like a true opportunity for someone powerful enough to steal the power.
Dunno, people that have been watching him for a decade or more have seen a significant change for the worse as of late. He was smart, shrewd, and in control. Not so much lately.
I am going to die one day or another, and everything I know and love will be changed and destroyed either in my lifetime or after. Trying to internalise this is very difficult but the grim reading has somehow helped me understand it to some small degree, and helps me focus on the wonder and preciousness of this brief moment of existence.
Most people are going to suggest avoidance strategies. That does work to an extent. You can try to firewall your personal life from work. It doesn't stop intrusive thoughts, other people bringing it up in conversation, or finding something that will remind you of it.
What helped me the most was the opposite - I took to "negative visualization" from stoicism [1].
Meditate for 15 minutes - visualizing one possible negative outcome, really live in those moments, imagine what your life would be like, what hardships you would face, what you would look forward to in that situation. After that 15 minutes, take a deep breath - and realize that hasn't happened. Savor the little joys in your life.
For my particular situation, it helped with mindfulness. I would actively seek out and create those moments of joy.
[1]: https://www.amazon.com/Guide-Good-Life-Ancient-Stoic-ebook/d...
Though that’s probably not a super useful coping mechanism. Still, the ending is 11 out of 10.
Edited: I am thinking about this from https://scottaaronson.blog/?p=2410 Then a striking 1976 result called Aumann’s Theorem states that their opinions must be equal. Or, as it’s summarized: “rational agents with common priors can never agree to disagree about anything.”
So it seems is fundamental to know what are the priors of the agents. I don't know if Aumann's Theorem and poker have been studied before.
Edited: Something related https://www.foxnews.com/world/putin-is-playing-poker-with-us...
http://www.oism.org/nwss/s73p904.htm is a decent place to start for that. It’s important to understand that nuclear war is survivable depending on where you live and what you do to prepare for it.
You can run simulations at https://alexwellerstein.com/projects/nukemap/ to get an understanding of the risk for the area you live.
I realize this is still depressing as hell, but it’s at least information you can use to more accurately take action.
It may also be worth reading up on what it means when Russia puts their nuclear weapons on high alert. My understanding is that there’s still quite a bit of escalation that would have to happen before we’d find ourselves in a nuclear war [https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/putin-put-russias-nuclear...].
Work very remotely.
I am a fun guy but I am a bit too realistic for some...
Instead of being scared, demotivated and depressed about war in the Ukraine, find a way to spend that nervous energy productively. Maybe join the Ukraine IT Force?
Russia killing Ukrainians to secure Ukraine is still somewhat in line with other invasions of this and last century. We are not yet in madness territory, not by any stretch.
Most likely we won’t even hit the civilian casualty numbers of the Iraq/Afghanistan war.
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1983_Soviet_nuclear_false_alar...
I'd be curious to learn a scenario that leads out of this without any more significant damage or escalation.
Ukraine just got green lights to become an EU member. Let's hope this will have the effect of deterring nature and not more fuel for madness.
You are also correct about the role of the internet, social media and that now everybody has a camera in their pocket.
That’s pretty much the deal at this point.
That is kind of the point, to make the cost of an attack against a NATO country very high.
I disagree.
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2022/02/28/world-war-...
> Putin is increasingly operating emotionally and likely to use all the weapons at his disposal, including nuclear ones. It’s important not to have any illusions — but equally important not to lose hope.
> “Every time you think, ’No, he wouldn’t, would he?’ Well, yes, he would,” Hill said. “And he wants us to know that, of course. It’s not that we should be intimidated and scared…. We have to prepare for those contingencies and figure out what is it that we’re going to do to head them off.
What if Putin loses face, and makes this his exit plan?
Never base military decisions on what the enemy would do, rather than what they could do.
Granted, your personal coping approach is not such a decision, but the maxim still stands.
Moreover, you can’t foresee what Russia’s position will be in 10 years from now. They might not use the A-bomb right now in this war, but who knows what ten years of paranoia and relentless sanctions could do to the leadership and the population.
Otherwise I'm worrying about Ukrainians much more and it breaks my heart what happens there. Also I worry of this "justified" nationalism against innocent part of Russian population which had risen lately, but I do support even more extreme sanctions as it seems there is not much more to be done other than supplying Ukraine with weapons, ammo and aid.
For sure when Ukraine will win the geopolitical system will never be the same again. Militarisation will increase. I will no longer take basics for granted. I think we must all be more vigilant now.
However we're alive and make the day count, but remember that relaxation and rest also counts.
Look for people or groups you can meet IRL for simple activities. In the past I found that playing board games with strangers was a really good way to have a break from the depressing events, and you can often find open boardgame groups around you by looking on meetup or similar platform.
If you feel depressed for a prolonged period of time (more than a few weeks) I would recommend you to contact a psychiatrist in your area, just by precaution. They can help you put words on your negative feelings, diagnose potential troubles you may be facing, and recommend adapted measures to support you (not necessarily medication, that's just an option). I myself went through this process during the past year or so, that has been really helpful so far to deal with my depressive thoughts, identify some patterns in my thoughts and behaviour, and mitigate the negative impact.
Any day you could be in, e.g., a car crash that ends your life.
Just because you learned of another way that your Earthly existence could end does change the situation.
Earthquakes, floods, diseases, sun exploding - anything can happen.
I recently watched Station Eleven. I know people will disagree but in my opinion this series had unprecedented realism. Even though it was about a pandemic its overall positive message also applies to a (much worse) nuclear war. Our civilization would go but mankind would survive and build a new and perhaps even better culture on the remaining patches of land that were still habitable.
Personally, I've been preparing for $generic_disaster_scenario for about a decade now. Not nuclear exchange specifically, but the generic ability to live without external supply chain inputs for a long while, and to defend what we have from would-be thieves. (Although we do have a few fallout-specific supplies and procedures in place, too)
To most, this seems insane, so we keep very quiet about it. But my wife was very grateful for my insanity throughout COVID, and now again through the (still very very small) risk of a nuclear exchange.
I still don't understand why people buy health insurance, auto insurance, homeowner's insurance, etc, but regard it as a sign of mental illness to "buy" existential risk insurance.
I just want to say you’re not alone. I was recently in DC while this war was starting and I found myself having many of the same thoughts. The one that sent me into overdrive was, what if I’m away from home and the missile alert comes up on my phone and I’m separated from my family and can’t even say goodbye.
I haven’t been able to express this to anyone close to me out of embarrassment, as I know it’s mostly unreasonable. It’s left me almost entirely in my own thoughts which as many who have dealt with anxiety know, isn’t usually a good place to be.
Hopefully OP, others, and myself are able to take some of these nuggets of advice to heart and find a way to quiet the anxiety.
They're the ones that high ranking military and other important people (e.g. president) will be in if there's an escalation.
I guess if WW3 starts it will be the same. It is unlikely to scale directly to nukes, and I don't think Putin has enough control of its military to start a worldwide nuclear war.
My point is, find someone and vent what's on your mind.
https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/t4wley/latest_upda...
Each morning I wake up hoping he is still alive, still uniting europe!
And by knowing that if they get us, at least we can rid the world of the cancer that russia has become.
So you are going to die no matter what. Tomorrow in a nuke strike, next week in a car crash, month from now from aneurysm, ten years from now in famines due to climate change, twenty years from now in heart attack? What does it matter how and when?
Some people are saying "we shouldn't stand up to Putin because that might be the end of the world". But is a world where someone like that can do whatever they want really world worth saving?
Despair is the correct reaction, but despair is the natural state of the world.
(But some people told me I'm not ok, so you know.)
Having people live longer means more people means we need more food and water of which there is a finite amount. There is only so much arable land, and so much water that can be made potable. Removing the salt from the oceans is quite expensive, and adding more waste to the existing fresh water would make it more expensive to make potable. Not to mention places to live near where people can work.
These are all hard problems to solve. There's no magical AI to solve it for us.
In this way, i am made to feel like my exposure is almost limited to direct hits.
Sometimes when i cant escape the anxiety, i go on backpacking trips to disconnect (and stay out of the crosshairs).
Life as you know it might end tomorrow, but it's just as likely to be a traffic accident, meteor strike, or something more mundane like a heart attack or cancer. Remember to live while you can. Death will come to us all at some point, and the specifics don't really matter when it comes to you deciding on how you want to spend your time while being alive.
As others mentioned, doom-scrolling will not help. Sitting alone, worrying won't help either. Here and now, there's little else to do but to put pressure on politicians in order to keep them applying harsh but non-violent sanctions on the aggressors, make them stick to their own promises of aid to Ukraine, as well as to be prepared help refugees if/when they arrive.
If you feel this is consuming you to such an extent that you feel that you _must_ do something, then direct action is an actual option. As far as I know Ukrainian armed forces are accepting applicants both for combatant and non-combatant roles.
The fallout maps are kind of all over the place, you can GIS for us nuclear fallout map but below is a link to a simulation that is in alignment with the rest of the maps more or less. Granted, local weather makes a huge difference so take that into account.
https://nuclearwarmap.com/simulation01.html
The signal in my mind is a NATO soldier killing a Russian soldier. I wfh so if that happens i go work from Alpine TX for a week and see if there's an escalation. If not, i come back and buy a round of drinks for my friends for being a paranoid nutjob.
Granted, it's not that simple. I have a wife+2kids and MIL in a garage apartment. what about them? Also, we have 5 pets between us. Do i hire a pet sitter? heh it's ridiculous to contemplate to the point of being offensive to those with artillery raining down on them right at this moment. But given the brain i'm blessed/cursed with, thinking through these things is how i cope.
edit: i want to reiterate this.
"it's ridiculous to contemplate to the point of being offensive to those with artillery raining down on them right at this moment. But given the brain i'm blessed/cursed with, thinking through these things is how i cope."
i wrote my post over a nice hot cup of coffee while sitting in my home office waiting for a conference call to start. I can never know the fear and anxiety affecting those in a very real line of fire. I just want to point out that i realize that.
Having grown up in the 80s, this conflict isn't particularly worrying me, we've been much closer in the past.
This is as "direct" of a conflict as it gets before Russia and NATO actually start shooting at one another. ...and it is not comparable to any other prior proxy war.
Now that it's on everyone's minds, I hope it will not be quickly forgotten in the aftermath.
Edit: if you need an immediate calming down… Even a crazy dictator is unlikely to want to destroy the world, because then there would be no one to rule over. Simplistic, but slightly reassuring.
If you believe you can solve a nuclear war, you should do it. If not, your thinking about it won’t change the outcome. So, focus on what positive change you can make.
Seriously, if they launch, they launch. There's absolutely nothing you, I or anyone else can do about it.
Now, if you want some consolation consider this: back in the 90's the U.S. did a launch-readiness test. Something on the order of 90% of U.S. silos could not be opened far enough to enable launch. That's on top of another 20%-30% of the missiles not being able to launch because of their age and the state of their rocket fuel. Then even if you can open the silo and launch the missile there will be crews who will refuse to launch. If you can open the silo, launch the missile, and the crew is willing to launch then you still have the problem that their navigation systems will miss their target. Finally, if you can open the silo, have a crew willing to launch, successfully launch the missile, the navigation system successfully steer the missile to the intended target there's always the possibility the bomb won't detonate. Keep in mind were discussing this about weapons systems that were deployed 50-60 years ago. Oh, and keep in mind we've developed missile defense systems since then - further depressing the odds that any of the nukes will be able to strike their intended targets.
In short, it's saber rattling. Putin is humiliated by the poor performance of his army and is terrified the West will realize the Russian Bear has no claws or fangs and is using the threat of nuclear war to ensure the West doesn't try to counter invade upon seeing how weak Russia really is.
* Matthew 6:25 "On this account I say to you: Stop being anxious about your lives"
* Luke 21:34 "But pay attention to yourselves that your hearts never become weighed down with ... anxieties of life"
* 1Peter 5:7 "throw all your anxiety on Him, because He cares for you."
This has worked for about three and a half thousand years:
Psalms 55:22 "Throw your burden on Jehovah, And he will sustain you."
For more info: https://www.jw.org/en/library/series/more-topics/russia-inva...
However in the non-zero chance that I’m wrong if humanity self annihilates then that will have been the story of us in the progression of the universe and time will march on without us which is what it is. In such a future we won’t be around to ponder it so it doesn’t matter.
So I guess my coping mechanism is pragmatic realism about only worrying about things that are within my ability to influence.
I’d recommend for you though only reading the news once a day for 15 mins and absolutely no social media or 24 hour news tv (especially any 24 hour news in the US) as anxiety is a reinforcing spiral and you sound like you need a detox.
But seriously I cope by a combination of denial and remembering we have been here before and survived.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JrMiSQAGOS4
Ignore the clickbaity headline and that it's from 2015 - it explains how we (you and me) understand the situation vs. how Putin looks at it. It definitely suggests the more we push Putin into a corner because of our values the more chance there is of nuclear war. It's still unlikely though because Putin and the Oligarchs are rational actors in all this.
This video as well from Feb 26 2022 - Why Russia is Invading Ukraine(30mins explanation): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=If61baWF4GE
I guess its just a mindset thing. Sorry if thats not helpful.
Nothing has really changed if you're outside of Ukraine and Russia. There should be virtually zero impact to your day to day life.
I assume you're not a politician or diplomat. There's probably nothing you can do to change Putin to stop making threats. These sort of threats have gone on for a long time - there was a whole period called the Cold War. Nothing has come out of them so far. Why do you think they will now? Do you have some info that the intelligence agencies don't?
In my mind, there's nothing you should fear about the threat. You should have basic emergency preparations that cover a variety of scenarios. There's not much you can additional do to help your survival outside of going high-dollar prepper and getting a bunker and training/consultation (KI could be a cheap thing to make you fell better, but if you're that close, there's going to be other major issues).
Basically, all of this is outside of your control. There's no point in worry about something that's not likely to happen and that you don't have any influence on. You've done everything you can (assuming basic emergency preparation), so it's time to make peace with the fact that whatever happens you'll have to deal with it at that time.
I turn off the news
They're the number one cause of fear amongst populations.
We go from one fear mongering bullshit to the next. The very recent past had Trump, then Corona, now - without delay, coincidentially just as the corona fear mongering stops working - it's the Ukraine and Russia.
And if it's not fear, then it's something else meant to rattle our collective jimmies.
Here's a challenge!
100 imaginary internet points for whoever answers this question:
What was the major jimmy-rattling topic before Trump?
First, there's a Tiktok meme about how if you're having trouble coping just talk to a GenXer. There is some truth to this. Anyone GenX or older grew up with the imminent threat of thermonuclear war as just part of your existence.
Second, if there happens to be nuclear war we're all completely hosed so in a way it doesn't really matter. A huge chunk of us won't survive the initial attacks. Many of the rest won't survive the period thereafter and I have to imagine that an awful lot of people will... opt out... at that point too. It's a bit like worrying about if the plane you're on is going to crash. You probably won't be around to deal with it.
Third, it's kind of amazing how close we've already come to this already. Let me introduce you to Vasily Arkhipov [1]. During the Cuban Missile Crisis, US destroyers were detonating depth charges to get Soviet nuclear submarines to surface and leave. Those onboard were cutoff from communication with Moscow and didn't know if nuclear war had begun. The command structure was that 3 key officers needed to unaminously agree to fire their nuclear missiles. Two of them voted to launch. One, Arkhipov, refused. Were it not for this one person's vote, the world would've ended in 1962.
The Cuban Missile Crisis is still of relevance today, actually. The US precipitated that crisis (by deploying nuclear weapons to Turkey) and Kennedy's recklessness almost precipitated nuclear war. For 200 years the US has had the Monroe Doctrine [2]:
> It held that any intervention in the political affairs of the Americas by foreign powers was a potentially hostile act against the U.S.
Under this doctrine, Soviet nuclear missiles in Cuba was unacceptable. Yet we're somehow shocked that Russia finds (and has explicitly stated) that NATO, being a hostile or potentially hostile (from Russia's perspective) military alliance with nuclear capabilities, on their doorstep was (understandably) unacceptable.
It's also worth mentioning Stanislav Petrov [3] who overruled an early warning system that had falsely detected a US nuclear launch in 1983.
Anyway, so I guess my point is you don't really have any control over the outcome so there's not much point worrying about it.
[1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vasily_Arkhipov
The conflict is localized to parts of Ukraine. There is no impending doom as long as NATO does not directly intervene. And I simply don't see Biden or Johnson sacrificing American and British cities for the sake of Ukraine.
To their credit, the US administration has been fairly calm given the circumstances. It is the European leaders that have been issuing belligerent statements and walking them back. They keep using the term "war" when referring to their actions against Russia.
What I wrote: THEY keep using the term "war" when referring to THEIR actions against Russia.
If a British or French minister says that THEY are at war with Russia, how is Russia supposed to interpret that?
Mindful meditation seems to be the best. Look up a guided meditation by ajahn brahm.
>I've noticed I'm becoming more scared, demotivated and depressed as the Ukraine conflict marches on and irrational people make nuclear threats.
If the sanctions dont work we are not post-war as the human species.
Fear of NATO is pointless. It's purely defensive. Russia only fears NATO because they had plans to invade. NATO keeps the peace. Being opposed to NATO is being opposed to peace. USA war exhaustion is super high, it's everyone else's turn who wants to invade. Russia took this opportunity.
Now for the topic at hand. The Russian people aren't strong like various Arabic folks. Putin will stay in power and continue his invasions. There will be more, not hard to predict this.
Eventually Russian military will come along and shoot at the wrong thing. Someone who couldn't read a map drove into nato territory and shot at something they shouldn't have... or a bvr missile tracks poorly and downs someone outside the theatre of war. Russians have already 'misfired' on Turkish boats.
Sanctions need to work before that inevitability. When that inevitability does occur, the Russians have been clear that they will use nuclear weapons.
There are alternative scenarios but things like China having been sideswiped by Russia and used as a shield for an invasion probably isn't leaving a good taste in their mouth. They probably only knew about the new republics and Russia was going to recognize. China could turn around and put a stop to the war. I just don't see it happening.
Concerning the nuclear treat, there is one country that has used nuclear bombing, spreading nuclear bombs around the world expanding nearer of countries it is hostile to, and which has started many wars.
Citizen of this country must vote better, you are free to partake in political activism for a party which you think is more able to keep world stability.
As a citizen of ex-USSR state that where US has „expanded“ to... We're damn happy to have US presence. Give more nukes so we can stay safe from Russia. We don't want to be it's „rightful interest territory“.
If you want to „keep world stability“ by giving up millions of people to predatory regimes... There's a Russian ship to follow.
If you are like most people, you cannot influence events. Like most people, discussing the situation is simply exchanging propaganda, because we have no real information.
As the majority are productivity halted by these events we have no control, take advantage of the low activity in others to get things done. May as well, because everyone else is wasting their time.