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Comment by dghlsakjg | Hacker News Reader

I'm of the mindset that the west needs to use every tactic to the fullest in this economic battle.

Yes it will hurt the west, yes it will hurt innocent civilians, but we need to make the real effects hurt Russia faster than Putin can make this suffering seem patriotic. We need the suffering to start faster than Putin can find his way around the sanctions. Far better to have a few weeks of large economic chaos than to drag it out for years, or to have to escalate to a war involving two nuclear armed parties.

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How is that not escalation that could lead to MAD?

My hope is that oligarchs would rather try to suicide Putin than have ten yachts but nowhere to go to because it‘s nuclear winter everywhere.

Armchair generals are a dime a dozen on social media.

Analysts from all over the spectrum have been warning about the Ukraine red line for decades.

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1498491107902062592.html

These people were right, but the alternatives they propose do not sound realistic. They are aimed at rational actors. The fact is, people living in those countries do not want to be Russia again and a civil war was always the only way this could end, NATO application or not. See Chechnya or Georgia.

This is very interesting.

It’s worth pointing out that Ukraine never actually did join NATO (and arguably was a long way from it) and war was still the outcome.

The right of Ukrainians to self determine their country’s future shouldn’t hinge on the whims of Putin or Russia in general.

Yes, I know that is a moral position at odds with politics and reality

> Yes, I know that is a moral position at odds with politics and reality

Aren't they usually? That's how one knows that it's a moral position.

It's not escalation because so far, the sanctions haven't had an effect on the ground in the Ukraine. If Putin pulls out of the Ukraine and the world keeps ratcheting up sanctions, then that would be escalation.

How is not applying more sanctions until they are effective anything less than appeasement? Which does not have a great historical record...

I believe it can seriously get out of control. With warfare you can take your finger off the trigger and it stops but with an economy things can get wildly out of control. I feel like Putin will launch nukes before giving up his regime and if his economy becomes an existential threat then you can connect the dots.

You think it’s easier to undo the effects of total war than it is to undo the effects of sanctions?

Between a shooting war and an economic war I suspect that the former is far more likely to get out of control.

Any action or reaction (including no reaction) could lead to MAD depending on how you see it. Russia has seen fit to escalate significantly despite basically no change in international posture towards Russia since 2014.

Economic actions can be reversed much more easily than military action. Sanctions and frozen accounts have an undo button. Dead people and destroyed cities cannot be undone.

I see economic action as the one most likely to have immediate effects internal to Russia that would undermine support for the war rather than bolster it.

Surprisingly, I think the West _is_ actually willing to risk nuclear war over this.

I would not be surprised if EU offers interim membership to Ukraine, and then offers air support / no fly zone - calling Putins bluff and widening the conflict.

I think Europe _should_ regard war on Ukraine as a declaration of war on Europe, and the rest of the west _should_ regard war on EU as war on all Western countries.

One reason for this is that if the West does not retaliate towards this aggression, then others will surely follow - perhaps Russia decides Lithuania is part of Russia after all, or Chinese leadership is emboldened to 'take back' Taiwan ?

Even if Russia withdraws tomorrow, can the West trust a madman with nuclear weapons ?

I think the West is at war with Russia today, even if we haven't admitted it to ourselves yet.

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