A deepening crisis forces physicists to rethink the structure of nature’s laws
quantamagazine.org
quantamagazine.org
Choice quotes:
>We know this both because dark matter is merely a placeholder for something we don’t understand, and because the mathematical formulation of particle physics is incompatible with the math we use for gravity. Physicists knew about these two problems already in 1930s. And until the 1970s, they made great progress. But since then, theory development in the foundations of physics has stalled. If experiments find anything new now, that will be despite, not because of, some ten-thousands of wrong predictions.
>Ten-thousands of wrong predictions sounds dramatic, but it’s actually an underestimate. I am merely summing up predictions that have been made for physics beyond the standard model which the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) was supposed to find: All the extra dimensions in their multiple shapes and configurations, all the pretty symmetry groups, all the new particles with the fancy names. You can estimate the total number of such predictions by counting the papers, or, alternatively, the people working in the fields and their average productivity.
According to her, and many other physicists, there hasn't been any major progress in phenomenology since 1970s when Higgs boson was postulated.
[1] https://backreaction.blogspot.com/2018/11/the-present-phase-...
Oh, and don't forget about fifty years of Moore's law. We have solid state to thank for that.
I'm sure I could think of more if I gave it more time. The truth is that there have been no earthshattierng paradigm shifts in the last fifty years, but that's OK because they tend to happen once every couple centuries.
This should not be counted as progress unless and until it actually makes experimental predictions that are confirmed.
I'm not aware of any predictions it has made regarding quark-gluon plasma that can't be made equally well without it.
this is old physics, just another solution of the GR
No, saying “just” in that way is like saying any given computer program is “just” another solution to the Church-Turing thesis.
Alcubierre introduced a novel and interesting category of solutions that people hadn’t thought of before.
Physics is unfortunately looking very normal.
The overall narrative that seems to emerge is that he was undisciplined as an undergrad at the ETH in Zurich, and never would have landed a graduate posting, and the patent office job was a fallback. Mileva was more diligent and helped him out quite a bit.
Didn't he get his PhD awarded only after he was recognised for his work?
So the odds of a truly revolutionary theory getting taken seriously based on a cold-email are significantly less than zero.
The problem is very obvious - science was both more open and more selective a century ago. There were far fewer PhDs, but they were of far higher quality. And the networks were smaller, friendlier (mostly), and more personal.
Now we have an industrialised corporate physics industry turning out thousands of PhDs a year. Most have been steered away from fundamental questions towards tweaks of the Standard Model - because anything else is career suicide and impossible to get funding for.
And after all of that, there's far more money in finance. So that's where the best people go to waste their talent.
I agree on the wasting of money for the wallpaper pattern that is called a degree.
Today, we have experimental data that diverges from predictions... regarding... the number of neutrino collisions we can observe in certain giant tanks of highly pure liquids, and... the scale of variation in the cosmic microwave background and long-range mass density is too small, oh, and... galaxies rotate kinda weird... free neutron lifetime measurements disagree by about 1.1%.... there's not quite enough lithium in the Universe (no, really)... good luck tying all this together into a theory of everything!
> “Some people call it a crisis. That has a pessimistic vibe associated to it and I don’t feel that way about it,” said Garcia Garcia. “It’s a time where I feel like we are on to something profound.”
They are using past experience of a crisis (say from late 19-century) to infer what comes next is a major paradigm shift. This might very well be true, but we didn't know that. We should be optimistic about our career and the future of physics, true. But we should not be in denial that this is a crisis. There's absolutely no information (but hints) we have right now that tells you a breakthrough is coming. The next paradigm shift may happen in arbitrary far future, or may not happened at all if it is out of the reach of humanity.
Also, people don't call it crisis just because we hit a wall. But we're hitting a half century wall now (since 1970s.)
> They will simply have to shift gears and work on other projects if they have dug as far as they can for now with today's technology and mathematics.
if that's what they simply have to do, is it being done?
Science doesn't need to constantly grow into all directions it has achieved at the same time, it's not a market competition. I feel that sometimes it gets evaluated as such by some media vehicles...
They didn't shift gears and work on other projects. The whole field bet in String Theory and are stuck. Like explained in the book "The Trouble with Physics", it is a career suicide for people not wanting to deal with String Theory and still be a theoretical physicists in high energy physics.
One may say a similar crisis has happened by the end of 19-th century. All but a few peculiarity in Physics were explained by the then modern physics. Some thought theory of physics were almost "complete", and only later to find out a major paradigm shift (actually 2, quantum theory and relativity) completely changed the way we viewed physics, and now becomes our cornerstone to understand physics.
AFAIK, physicists generally like this kind of crisis, some make a career chasing crisis, because this might be the hint of new physics and the next paradigm shift.
This seems like another case where it can deliver something useful.
String theory in this unusual place between a physics model and a mathematical framework (that's what makes it so "fundamental"), and we are still in the process of figuring out how to construct predictive physical models using this framework. But OTOH it's been enormously useful in helping us theoretically probe and understand structural properties of quantum field theories, the implications of special symmetries, the geometry of manifolds, etc.
QM started as theory to explain otherwise unexplainable phenomenon, but explicitly provided things that could be falsified (aka tested), was immediately tested, and did indeed usefully describe otherwise unexplainable phenomenon before they were ever put forth seriously in any consistent way.
Algebra, group theory, etc. as pure math have proofs, but are definitely not (and never held out as) a physics theory.
Conflating the two is not appropriate. And saying string theory is a useful physics model while there is no way to test if anything unique it posits are true or not, may be useful mathematically - but means it’s not a physics model. Period.
That people spend so much time wedging everything into it to try to make it a useful model when it is unfalsifiable (and no one seems to have any idea how it would even BE falsifiable) is exactly the type of crisis the article is discussing.
Lots of careers built in a direction they can’t be proven wrong.
The situation is far from ideal; there is no other plausible candidate for a physical theory compatible with gravitation and quantum field theory. But at the same time, we have literally no means to measure any case where they interact meaningfully. We can measure a fountain of cold neutrons falling in a gravitational field, but only the extremely weak field we are in. So, while it is a problem that nobody can devise a test for a physical string theory, nobody can devise a test for any other theory that would seek to fill the role.
But everybody who goes into string theory had to learn all of "real" physics first, and excel at it well enough to get into a PhD program. A lot of them must have a hankering to do real physics, like their heroes who inspired them into the field, and must be frustrated at not finding any way to do it from where they are.
Being clever people, if they can use the maths they have to suggest directions for things to try, they might make themselves useful. If the things they suggest turn out to guide reasoning toward something that will be tested, that is worth something even if the formalism the suggestions came from isn't correct in detail.
This is also true of things like the Alcubierre drive, but further work has given us possible paths to rule that in or out nowadays.
The complaint always reads like a "why don't science succeed fast enough" and comes across as incredibly entitled.
When someone comes up with something falsifiable, I’ll change my mind.
I’m pretty sure though that when they do, it won’t be with what we currently call string theory, even if it is using the same name.
And I’m not saying ‘whatever you do, don’t allow anyone to work on it!’. Far from it.
But if my kids wanted to get into it, I’d try to talk them out of it.
You know the joke - a university was having budget problems, so they fired the physicists and replaced them with mathematicians, who only need paper, pencil, and a wastebin. Then they had more budget problems, so they fired the mathematicians and replaced them with philosophers, who don't need the wastebin.
Why would that give you a pause? How this single example is different from all other "predictions" from string theory?
And the muon vexes us again with an observed g2 moment the differs from its theoretical value greater than measurement error. This again suggests there is more unknown physics out there.
- Gravitational Waves for probing extremely large and small objects - Cosmic Rays for probing high energy particles. - Solar probes to detect particles made from stellar phenomena
https://slate.com/technology/2021/07/shane-harris-interview-...
Without such a premise, it is completely expected that not every aspect of the universe should have something to do with its functioning.
Even in pure mathematics, with no dependence on the physical universe, you have Gödelian unprovable propositions which, as Gregory Chaitin put it, are "true for no reason, they're true by accident." If the universe did not include a physical equivalent to this, it would be quite a surprise which would tell us that something very unusual was up.
(Although this is still subject to Gödel's caveat, that even intentionally constructed systems end up with features that weren't part of the intention, but rather are unavoidable consequences of the design.)
But if you don't make that religious assumption, then the expectation that all features should have a purpose becomes unsupportable. There's simply no reason to expect that, and even the notion of features having a "purpose" is misleading metaphorical language at best.
Back to the subject of what Einstein would say, we should also keep in mind what he wrote in a private letter in 1954:
> “The word God is for me nothing but the expression of and product of human weaknesses, the Bible a collection of venerable but still rather primitive legends. No interpretation, no matter how subtle, can (for me) change anything about this.”
I'm not aware of Einstein having written anything attempting to reconcile this with his previously expressed pantheistic views and the related views implied by the "play dice" comment. That would be tough to reconcile.
Another relevant issue here is that Einstein's dice comment was objecting to non-determinism in quantum physics. But in the nearly 70 years since his death, everything that has been discovered still points to inherent non-determinism. There are some theories/interpretations that would eliminate this, like superdeterminism and De Broglie–Bohm theory. But even if such a theory satisfies Einstein's concern, it doesn't affect what I wrote - such theories don't address the justification for features of the universe, they simply model what we observe.
tl;dr: what I originally wrote is essentially a tautology that neither you nor Einstein can refute.
My attempt to restate your position: Suppose you write a program that just so happens to log information every leap day. No one uses the information, it doesn't effect the rest of the observable output. If you delete this logging from the program, no one else notices.
The complete observable properties of the universe (the program) include this logging, but the functioning of it is not really dependent on the logging. Thus, we probably should expect that there are some aspects of the universe that are independent, they don't really matter (or at least don't substantially matter) beyond their own observation.
Logging is a feature that someone deliberately adds to an application. It has a purpose even if no-one uses it.
I'm talking about features that (a) were not intentionally designed and (b) have no "purpose" - i.e. do not "participate in physics necessary for the observable universe functioning," per the original commenter.
The point is that for a feature to have a purpose implies an intentional design. If you assume the universe was intentionally designed, then yes, one might expect all features of the universe to have a purpose. Although as Gödel pointed out, this may not be possible - even intentionally constructed systems end up with features that weren't part of the intention, but rather are unavoidable consequences of the design.
If you don't assume intentional design, then there's no reason to expect that all features of the universe have a purpose.
It's funny that we're a bit in a similar situation now. Again we have a bunch of theories, e.g. in cosmology and quantum theory, that are based on not much more than an idea of how things should be. The Great Unification Theory springs to mind for instance. And again we seem to be stuck.
That's a bit strong. The SM still makes good predictions for many processes involving neutrinos. We just know, since the discovery of neutrino masses, that the SM, or at least the original version of it (there are proposed mechanisms that can handle neutrino masses without modifying anything else in the SM, although they still have some issues), can only be an approximation regarding neutrinos. But the SM is pretty much considered an approximation (or, as it is usually termed, an effective field theory) anyway.
So depending on who you ask, they may not regard (massive) neutrinos as "beyond standard model".
Physics can still explain / predict a shit-load of phenomena. It's not a crisis - just more work to do.
In contrast, the greater restrictions of theory and measurement in physical science didn’t easily allow researchers to do pointless hand-waving that looked good. In some sense, the “crisis” in physics is less embarassing, as it is simply theorists bumping into limits enforced by reality. They didn’t make it up as they went along.
I’m also doubtful the lauded “open science” movement will accomplish anything besides the mass transfer of intellectual property to centralized data platforms, to be mined by replication specialists.
I’m biased, admittedly, after watching an APA zoom conference on the advantages and wonders of open science, and why researchers should join in. The lead presenter’s #1 reason to join open science was “that I didn’t lose my data anymore, it was all nicely and neatly centralized on the OSF server.”
Speechless.
This is an acute problem in animal research where 90% of work gets away with using a single genotype in a single environment. And then the “wise” old heads at NIH wonder that there is a replication bias? Really?
In short the book conclude many of them are experiencing "group-think" and over-emphasize the importance of string theory given what they can't prove theoretically as well as experimentally.
> Many are approachable and responsive.
You must be talking about some other people here. In my experience we're not. We really don't have time to address to some random people from the public on why we disagree with what they believe.
I think it's the rare physicist that actually thinks "Yes, this work is useless, but I need a job and will keep up the subterfuge." I think the rationalizations are more common. But this is just my opinion. And consider the context: what's the alternative? Do you realize how hard it is to discover something actually, really new? And the sheer impossibility of doing scientific discovery on a schedule? The expectations are really insane in science. I can't help but think that "professional scientist" is not such a good idea, that we were better off when people did science on the side, as a hobby, and once in a while they'd find something cool and publish it.
(That said: also the majority of physics research isn't fundamental physics research, which is the stuff you're talking about. There's plenty of work in areas like condensed matter physics, plasma physics, quantum optics, etc etc etc that is still producing results and driving new developments.)
> they should lose their jobs.
is too much.
You should also study the history of string theory and how their early days are miserable (too difficult to have a career as people denies string theory as physics.)
The correct approach would be to invest in string theory but also any other proponents of "theory of everything". The main issue today is that virtually only string theorist can make a career of being theoretical particle physicists.
The very fact is that there's no any other theories beyond the standard model that are falsifiable. If you require any theory to be falsifiable then no theoretical physicists can have a job. Not even the invention of general relativity would qualifies (remember although we can now falsify GM, it wasn't initially.)
However, a universe that doesn't have any laws would be an amorphous mush. Forget about planets and stars, it could not even have atoms or molecules - you need an awful lot of stable structure (i.e. laws) to get something as complex as a water molecule out of random particle interactions.
# Background material
- Fundamental (particle) Physics has no progress since the 1970s.
- discovery of Higgs is confirmation of old Physics.
- other predicted fundamental particles has never been discovered.
- Fine tuning problems - smallness of Higgs mass
- smallness of the cosmological constants
- reductionism as Kenneth Wilson's concept of effective field theory (EFT) - separation of scales—UV (small scales)
can be treated as a cut off of IR (large scales).
# Main messageThe 2 fine tuning problems above are examples that are UV-sensitive, unlike other usual examples in EFT.
This is hint of physics that mixes UV and IR scale: example of black hole—higher energy -> larger event horizon.
> "Gravity is anti-reductionist"
Then it went on to cites these papers pointing to relevant research about this idea:
* [\[0801.2562\] Naturally Speaking: The Naturalness Criterion and Physics at the LHC](https://arxiv.org/abs/0801.2562)
* [Phys. Rev. Lett. 82, 4971 (1999) - Effective Field Theory, Black Holes, and the Cosmological Constant](https://journals.aps.org/prl/abstract/10.1103/PhysRevLett.82...)
* [\[2107.03530\] Densities of States and the CKN Bound](https://arxiv.org/abs/2107.03530)
* [\[2106.04622\] Calculating the Higgs Mass in String Theory](https://arxiv.org/abs/2106.04622)
* [\[hep-th/9912072\] Noncommutative Perturbative Dynamics](https://arxiv.org/abs/hep-th/9912072)
* [\[1909.01365\] IR Dynamics from UV Divergences: UV/IR Mixing, NCFT, and the Hierarchy Problem](https://arxiv.org/abs/1909.01365)
* [\[1904.08426\] The Weak Scale from Weak Gravity](https://arxiv.org/abs/1904.08426)
* [\[1305.6939\] Natural Tuning: Towards A Proof of Concept](https://arxiv.org/abs/1305.6939)
* [Phys. Rev. Lett. 127, 101101 (2021) - Hidden Symmetry of Vanishing Love Numbers](https://journals.aps.org/prl/abstract/10.1103/PhysRevLett.12...)
It's said that every cosmologist who dies gets to add a "law of nature" consistent with known observations. I wonder what Conway added.