So, what's the likely outcome here?
The pipeline is built and presumably functional. It seems like the pipeline will be put into use once this business with Russia is over.
The pipeline is built and presumably functional. It seems like the pipeline will be put into use once this business with Russia is over.
Russia becoming a hermit kingdom cut off from Western trade for a significant time seems a distinct possibility. Germany has already announced they plan to eliminate their dependence on fossil fuels for electricity by 2035 [1] and to increase imports from the USA until then. Europe was already moving away from fossil fuels for climate reasons. The war gives a security justification for accelerating that course even if it impacts quality of life, the economy, or even climate goals. [2] European energy independence just became a primary goal of unlikely to change even if the immediate tensions ease.
Assuming this materializes and relations allow, the pipeline may end up mostly exporting via European ports. So you're right it'll probably get used one way or another, eventually.
[1] https://www.reuters.com/business/sustainable-business/german...
[2] https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/germany-step-up-plan...
Imo, which is without any particular info of the industry: It will probably be put to use, however perhaps not to it's full capacity. Germany has high energy prices, which there is no indication of going down in the forseable future. So it seems particularly unlikely it would not be used at all. Germany is trying to reduce it's dependency on russian gas (for example via LNG). But Germany opting out of coal and nuclear fission power - energy prices won't, imo, go down.
You say "once this business with Russia is over". Current events from my German perspective imply they won't be over no matter what outcome... things just change going forward.
If Germany remains on the no nuclear front then France will build more nuclear power on the boarder that Germany will buy at a premium. Dependency on russian gas will go down no matter what, the next winter might be financially tough though. In that regard "selling" the nord stream pipeline via insolvency now or later at declining usage - it's valuation I can only guess at.
From a non-financial position the pipeline gives certain power as long as Germany has a dependency on russian gas -> it's worth might be different to Russia than just viewed economically.
In another post I mentioned that this article says "considers" insolvency. Therefore it might just be political message for now or a leak of something companies with financial difficulties are legally required to do... so all this is honestly just a thought experiment.
By then fission will be stone age from an economic point of view, PV and wind will be much cheaper than they are now, electric vehicles can serve as batteries on the grid, and a lot of infrastructure will have been converted from gas to hydrogen.
In other words, it makes no sense to think about fission at this point.
Then the US decided that it didn't want to be in the energy exporting business.
Energy supply and demand isn't very elastic, but nothing's absolute, right? You could guess that without any specific knowledge and find the articles.
I'm seeing headlines like "In Extreme LNG Market, Cheniere Finds More LNG to Sell and Dramatically Boosts 2022 Estimates Again"
P.S. the following says "Train 6" (liquefaction units) came online February 4, 2022: