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We need to protect Taiwan because they are a democracy. The fact that the most important IC manufacturer is there is important but less important than the humans who live in Taiwan. I strongly believe the US plan for "strategic ambiguity" w/r/t Taiwan, which is basically lack of clarity over will the us go to war to help protect Taiwan from China - is stupid. China will attack sooner or later.

Democratic countries need to bond together so the current two powerful authoritarian dystopian dictatorships as well as any future ones are not able to destroy them. You don't have a right to destroy my country (looking at China and Russia) because you don't like the fact that we are democratic.

Exactly, insert something about tyrany and good people doing nothing enabling it.

These situations are too complex to just view them as "democracy = good, tyranny = bad". I firmly believe this is a true statement, but the unchangeable fact of the matter is that attempting to resolve tyranny can lead to more harm than good.

There's a reason the cold war was a, well, "cold" war; the consequences of resolving it would have caused far greater harm. This is also the reason NATO is careful to avoid too much direct involvement right now.

So in short, also insert something about the road to hell being paved with good intentions.

Well said.

Mi sasa! Spoken like a true belta pampa who is wise and seen many rotations. Nothing in life is ever simple.

I agree, but several presidents have given clear and unambiguous statements that the US would defend Taiwan. Both Biden and G W Bush did this.

In the light of the Ukraine situation strategic ambiguity is looking less and less attractive. A bit more clarity and commitment might have avoided this whole situation.

https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentar...

> We need to protect Taiwan because they are a democracy.

There is no “we” anymore. No way in hell am I sending my kids, or allowing my kids to be drafted to fight for this stupid ass country.

I don’t like Russia either, before anyone accuses me of that.

I’m just pointing out that your collective interest delusion no longer exists, I feel no connection to the country I was born in. Fighting to protect its decaying corrupt corpse is the last thing I’ll do.

I'm not sure which country you're from but without Taiwan there is no Nvidia, Apple, or personal computers. Taiwan MUST be protected.

Correction without Taiwan there is no Nvidia, Apple, or personal computers using the leading edge nodes <=7nm. There would be shortages but there is still Samsung and Intel is catching up.

That’s just TSMC. Taiwan has the leading contract manufacturers Foxconn and Quanta, MediaTek, etc.

Not to mention they invented bubble tea.

If we weren't so antagonistic towards China, business with Taiwan would carry on as usual following a Chinese takeover.

A Chinese takeover destroys TSMC, assuming it's not done through diplomacy. Industry does not survive war. That's one of the things that gets destroyed. And it most likely will not be done by diplomacy after Taiwan watched what happened to Hong Kong.

There are more important things in my life than cutting edge personal electronic devices.

If this country in that context is China, I would volunteer to serve.

Because it threatens the future for myself and the kids I would like to have.

Not sure again on the context of the last sentence.

But if it's Russia, and Russia begins to expand further into more of Europe than I'd also step up, but not right now as it stands.

It's an existential threat.

> But if it's Russia, and Russia begins to expand further into more of Europe than I'd also step up, but not right now as it stands.

No you won't.

You'll talk tough on the internet, like a lot of other wardrummers. But when push comes to shove, you won't grab a rifle and go to work. That'll be somebody else's job, but you'll totes "stand with them in solidarity".

If Russia wins in Ukraine, and doesn't stop there, Europe will switch to a war stance. In that case people won't have much choice. You either volunteer, are drafted or are working in an industry that makes your continued civil job more valuable than you being in the armed forces.

I think you left out the option for people to leave. Particularly in the US where such a large percentage of our youth are immigrant/minority.

Is a Chinese or Indian American 20, 25, or 30 year old faced with the prospect of dying for the EU going to join up? Or go live a happy life in Ningbo or Hyderbad? And those are the relatively successful immigrant/minorities. What will your average Colombian or Brazilian 25 year old do? Sign up to fight in the Balkans? Or go live a happy life in Rio well away from potential radioactive fallout zones? Not to even speak of Mexican 25 year olds or Black 25 year olds who already have a strained relationship with the US government as it stands.

Now there will always be some people who choose not to fight, but the past 40 years or so we have fostered an atmosphere where we have greatly increased the number of people likely to fall in that camp. At least in the US. It'd be foolish to assume that in a nation of immigrants, people would not exercise the choice to return to their nations of origin faced with the prospect of a (likely nuclear eventually) conflict with Russia. Especially when we'd want to put most of those very people on the front lines of that conflict.

If NATO europe is invaded my guess is all major powers would be involved. Not sure how much leaving would be available.

Also from the immigrants I know most would HAPPILY stand up for freedom and Democracy. Despite how shit we treat immigrants almost all are way better off here. There's a reason people are fleeing in record numbers. An all out global conflict just increases this exponentially.

Not to mention it's already great way to get legal papers. US army, France foreign legion, etc.

Though it is gross how we have treated some who have served for the US; the second they commit a petty crime they are deported. They should have the same rights and serve in jail here and then release here. Especially given the huge issues & obstacles our vets face.

> Also from the immigrants I know most would HAPPILY stand up for freedom and Democracy.

Are you actually suggesting most first/second generation immigrants would tolerate the US regime drafting their children, and not just immigrate home?

>Particularly in the US where such a large percentage of our youth are immigrant/minority.

This. Our leaders are morons. They’re not going to be able to draft their star demographics to fight China/Russia, they’ll all just go home.

> Europe will switch to a war stance.

“Europe” will fight to the last American.

You have a continent fat on decadence and social programs that has neglected military for 50+ years, content to let others protect them.

Germany has less than 20 functional attack helicopters ffs. Russia is garbage but come on.

To be fair: the French have some competent forces (FFL), as do the Brits (Royal Marines). I'd put both of those a notch above the Crayola Connoisseurs, and that's saying something. Lotta combat-ready dudes in Bulgaria as well.

But yeah, Europeans by and large lack the mindset of traditional Americans, who look at military service as a right of passage. It's been fascinating to talk with Europeans about the present situation. Most of them still really don't understand even the short-term ramifications of the current conflict, nor do they understand the underlaying causes.

That all said, I'm not sure where the next generation of American warfighters is going to come from. After the überbungle that was the withdrawal of Afghanistan, every person I know currently serving wants out now.

I think you're projecting here. There are plenty of people who will willingly pick up a gun and plenty who won't. Ukraine is the perfect example of that. You know nothing about the person you're replying to in order to know which group he'd really belong to.

But he is correct in his assertion that the vast majority will not. America is a soulless nation that “just works” as long as we’re all making money from it.

The second push comes to shove and we need to mobilize the nation ala-WW2 our leaders will realize just how deeply they played themselves.

Whoever wants to get in the fight can do so right now.

The Ukrainian government looks to have created its own foreign legion, so you'll even technically be fighting under the Ukrainian flag as a uniformed soldier.

Enlistment period is indefinite: until the "state of emergency" ends.

Update based on new information: Russia doesn't acknowledge the Ukrainian Foreign Legion (they keep rebranding, not sure what they'll end up sticking with), so if you get captured, the Russians will treat you like a criminal, and not an EPW.

I 100% would.

I doubt I would be fighting as infantry though so there's that for sure.

The world would have to be in way big shit for the us mil calling up 30+ year olds, even though I'm in pretty great shape (i'm short though).

Myself, and a lot of people here over the age of 25 with tech skills, would probably still be useful assets.

You might think that but the collective actions of the west suggest differently.

There's no "we" because exactly your attitude lmao

You point out some red herring, claim it's the base case, and thus it proves the entire viewpoint that it's some "decaying corrupt corpse"

Compared to what, exactly?

He's kind of right though.

And that was a message coming from someone whose family can be assumed to be relatively priveleged. How much cooperation will the draft man be met with in, say, our nation's black ghettos?

Our problem is that our leaders have not fostered the necessary unity to actually prosecute any sort of war that requires "all hands on deck". We can't just say, "they have bad attitudes." (Well, we can, but then we'd be foolish in the extreme to go to war with China over Taiwan. It would be Vietnam all over again.) We have to find out why that guy/gal's family feels dejected, and address those issues. We've made so many people in the US feel like they're not part of the team that it's actually become dangerous as the world enters this new, unprecedented, and more precarious phase.

Who’s “we”? Try fighting for Taiwan if you don’t like your own country then.

If it’s the US nobody is ever getting drafted again. That’s just silly. Surprised you have kids if that’s the way you talk to your wife though.

The Taiwanese themselves have used a silicon shield strategy (see https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/26/us/politics/computer-chip...) to ensure that it is in the USA’s interest to protect them against China. They aren’t counting on the USA’s Democratic altruism (which is understandable).

< The fact that the most important IC manufacturer is there is important but less important than the humans who live in Taiwan.

Oh you sweet summer child.

“ Western countries are perfectly willing to act against their own interests purely to punish a country that steps out of line.”

Going after China would be magnitudes more painful than going after Russia. It would also hurt the US whereas Russia is mainly causing problems for Europe.

???

Russia is actively threatening nuclear war. That’s a threat to everyone, not just Europe.

He is talking about the sanctions. Less than <1% of revenue of SP500 is derived from Russia so US isn't directly affected by any of the sanctions in any way. They are indirectly affected by the impact on the price of commodities (which also affects China more than the US) so overall this whole sanctions situation is mostly fine for the USA.

With the caveat that China will export all that extra inflation to them which will exacerbate the domestic problems Biden faces.

If however China was to invade Taiwan and US/EU were forced to impose sanctions on them then you can basically expect a financial nuclear winter, everyone will be in pain, US most of all. China actually is a highly self-sufficient economy outside of energy markets (which it could adapt to especially if Russia remains an ally) while the US is heavily import dependent from China (hence the whole trade imbalance/surplus that Trump was bitching about).

TLDR: No one currently cares about Russia sanctions except Europe. The world can't afford Chinese sanctions.

> China actually is a highly self-sufficient economy outside of energy markets

China depends a lot on importing food, especially meat. The two most essential things they need. Food and Energy. And they currently struggle with both.

This is true but their biggest food trading partner is actually Brazil (second biggest is US though...) which would decline to impose sanctions on China. This is because Brazils economy is highly reliant not just on food exports to China but also iron ore.

They have already declined to impose sanctions on Russia because of their reliance on Russia for raw materials and fertilizer.

Any shipments may end up being blocked by Japan because they would need to go between Japan and Taiwan to get to China. During the conflict it will be delayed and risky.

Lets just hope none of this ever happens. I live in Taiwan at the moment. I just want to enjoy life with my family.

Such immediate sanctions are still pretty risky even with Russia’s small economy; you don’t know how leveraged someone’s investments there can be. It could also lead to them becoming a client state of China, though I don’t think that’s their style.

Russia isn't going to nuke anyone. It's a gambit to make NATO pause and slow down their reaction.

History is full of nuke threats and no follow through (well except 2 incidents).

A week ago Russia wasn't going to invade Ukraine. I think if there is a lesson to be learnt, then that some things we thought are certain really aren't that certain.

You thought Russia wasn't going to invade Ukraine. I had other opinions.

I didn't expect them to invade that quickly. I thought it's just a gamble by Putin to get concessions. What's his endgame? Keep an occupation or install a puppet government?

Actually I didn't. But everyone else did, even though Russian troops were surrounding Ukraine. Now Russia is under much more pressure than Putin ostensibly anticipated. They wrongly published a victory piece after just a few days into the invasion. Also they 'made' a referenadum to station nuclear weapons in Belarus. So, I wouldn't be so sure is all I am saying.

Yes I agree with you and Descartes the only thing we can be certain of as conscious observers is we exist.

But I moved on from moderate uncertainty leading to a default of skepticism.

Some actions have very predictable outcomes even if they aren't guaranteed. with those I like to use the vernacular that implies certainty. That's how I feel about nuclear exchange. But I don't associate the probabilities of expectation of nuclear exchange and invasion as conditional upon each other. A surprise outcome in an invasion of a nonnuclear non-nato state wouldn't lead me to feel a nuclear exchange probability suddenly becomes inverted similarly.

Because countries have invaded others during nuclear times. That should come as no surprise to a student of history even if many didn't expect Putin to in this particular instance.

But the pressing matter is would Putin use nukes? Would he use nukes if it means easy escalation to a mutual exchange where him and his country would end up as ash? Nah I don't believe he would unless some development allowed him to nuke with impunity.

The reverse is also true. Economic dependence between China and the west make conflict very expensive to both sides. That Russia is kind of out there means they can act (or be acted against) with fewer economic consequences.

This interdependence is kind of interesting. You could argue that China won't invade Taiwan because it will hurt the China economy or you could argue that China can invade Taiwan because any sanctions will hurt others' economies. In the end it's just a big unpredictable poker game.

There are two pipes: one bings gas from Russia and the other cash from Europe. You turn the first one off, the second one is off as well.

There is a third pipe which is ability of Russia to use foreign currency to buy stuff. That is the pipe that got turned off, it is not clear if/why Russia would continue to send gas.

On one hand they could stop sending gas, on the other hand what else would they do with that gas? I am hoping that they do not have significant storage or transportation to Asia infrastructure.

Presumably oligarchs and Putin think that there's a way for them to evade sanctions.

Putin is definitely going to try and launder his monetary reserves through China to access the greater world.

So Bitcoin?

That third pipe has a large arterial which detours through China before reaching the West.

You assume that it would reach the West.

Maybe China just takes the Russian gas and pays them in Yuan.

I have a hard time believing that China will forward energy resources to anyone else when they, themselves could be using said resources. But I could be wrong. Maybe they're big hearted like that.

Russia has hoarded cash, Europe has not hoarded gas. There’s the issue.

Cash is liquid, 80% of Russian reserves are not any more, after yesterday.

There are certain gas reserves... also winter is just about over. So demand will probably be less.

Russia's money is gone:

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-02-28/russia...

All the bank sanctions have had carveouts for fossil fuels.

I think what Europe actually communicated to China is that they will cut off everything except for what they need (gas). In the case of China, the US and EU need basically everything.

> I think recent events send a message to China that Western countries are perfectly willing to act against their own interests purely to punish a country that steps out of line.

That's the point. The sanctions EU is imposing on Russia are getting very serious, so even without any military threat involved, China would think twice before invading Taiwan. Also I believe some countries already working on alternatives, which of course is a very long and costly process, but better late than never.

Its day 5, there's no reason to assume current response are sustainable longterm gambles.