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Comment by jug | Hacker News Reader

I wonder what these extreme sanctions will do to Putin. They obviously have not made him stop fighting. But these sanctions are so severe that they'll probably even prevent him from rebuilding his army following this due to sanctions blocking imports to fuel his war industry. So, since he is still fighting, what is he fighting _for_? Still trying to expand Russia? But the Russia we knew is already not going to be the same as it once was. Putin will never be able to return to a status quo again. Does he not understand this, that he is already a pariah on the world stage? Does he now fight under some sort of tunnel vision? And what is such a man capable of? This scares me.

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In the last two years his social contacts were significantly reduced, as can be seen even from his meetings where there’s a distance of at least 5 meters from him to other people. He lives in a self-supporting information bubble, so yes, kind of a tunnel vision. We cannot guess what is he thinking about. Good news are that he cannot trigger nuclear war alone, and I don’t think Shoigu or Gerasimov are willing to go to hell with him.

I think the timer started counting until the coup. Oligarchs are really pissed and may return to politics despite the risks. Ordinary people starting feeling the pain queuing at banks and ATMs, noticing already raising prices, or being stuck abroad without access to money or any options to return home. Many people lost significant part of their savings that was invested in stock. Army is likely feeling betrayed - many officers who have to send their soldiers to Ukraine now didn’t expect the war with slavic brothers. What we see in Ukraine now may be just a first act of an enormous tragedy.

It takes a while for a ruler who has surrounded himself with yes-men to face reality.

> And what is such a man capable of? This scares me.o

Yes, this is a scary time. I saw someone on twitter suggest that we need to offer him some sort of safe haven he can retire to so he doesn't feel so cornered. Not sure it that would work, though, probably too much pride. Probably the best we can hope for at this point is some kind of palace coup. Some of the oligarchs are already speaking out publicly against him which indicates that any level of fear they had of him is waning. An internal coup would've been an unrealistic expectation a few days ago, now it seems within the realm of possibility.

Elba?

"Able was I, ere I saw Elba"

The sanctions worked; all the oligarchs have fled [0] (conveniently before airspace was blocked off), but the tunnel vision is true, and he is still surrounded by those who believe in him [1]

[0] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=30476246

[1] https://imgur.com/a/IQ4ZHVT

> But these sanctions are so severe that they'll probably even prevent him from rebuilding his army following this due to sanctions blocking imports to fuel his war industry. So, since he is still fighting, what is he fighting _for_? Still trying to expand Russia?

I don't know if this is 100% accurate, but it seemed to help my understanding: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=If61baWF4GE

tldw - oil, a better border where Belarus cannot be surrounded by NATO, and better access to shipping ports.

Putin offered stability and a sort of pride for Russia. Not that I like despots, but I can understand that.

He doesn’t offer that to Russians anymore…

Word has it Russians largely thought there wouldn’t even be a war.

I hope the locals can deal with him quickly and change course.

As for Putin himself, this whole situation seems odd even for a macho saber rattler like Putin. I think there is something to wondering an his frame of mind.

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