Germany aims to get 100% of energy from renewable sources by 2035
reuters.com
reuters.com
Green Gas? Nuclear is bad because it produces waste despite that waste often being the size of a can of coke after a year of service? Buying Russian gas is actually making Russia more democratic and drawing it in to the West?
The past week will have a lot of Germans revising many silly opinions they were originally able to afford but not anymore -- so I'm going to wait for that tide of opinion change rather than try to persuade anymore. Being naive sometimes is a luxury some can simply afford while others can't afford it. Climate change is happening and it's not going to wait for Germany, Russia has always been like Russia -- corrupt and unreliable. Amazing that Germany have considered the US a poor partner under Trump but a reliable one with Russia/Putin. France seems have better answers on how to solve energy problems than Germany.
Honestly, as a German myself I'm rather doubtful of that unfortunately. Some? Maybe. Many? Probably not. I cannot even convince my parents (who grew up in Germany during the time when the anti nuclear sentiment really started) to rethink their anti nuclear stance (despite having a great relationship with them). I say that as a physicist that absolutely sees there are flaws with aging nuclear plants.
But people who are not able to a) appreciate the energy density of nuclear and b) see that climate change is an urgent problem we face, whereas any issues from nuclear waste are long term problems (not even talking about future reactor technologies etc. etc.) is just... I don't know? It sounds insane, but indoctrinated? I just utterly fail to understand.
I mean, what's the point of a "nuclear waste free Earth" if our civilization collapses due to climate change?
But the argument which makes the discussion now mostly irrelevant is simply: all available and reasonable designs are vastly expensive and take at least a decade to build, if not two including planning. That makes the question just moot. Not even France, which is all-in on nuclear has an answer to that.
Renewables are comparatively cheap and can be set up quickly. Germany already depends to a large part on renewable electricity. That is the cheap and efficient way forward. On top of that, nuclear power plants don't work well together with renewables, as they can't switch their output level enough.
Gas is the ideal partner for renewables and eventually will also be produced from renewable energy. Just recent events messed up the plan a bit, but not too much. We have to push quicker for renewables and pay a bit more for gas.
The reality is that our world is inherently too unstable for the half century commitment necessary for each reactor. External influences always drive risky decisions which ultimately result in less than completely safe outcomes for both the operation of the reactor and the containment of the waste.
Yes we do. I post this is almost every thread about nuclear power, and it seems I find new people each time.
If you combine https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_reprocessing with https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Breeder_reactor you have essentially zero nuclear waste, and you also need something like 98% less Uranium.
This is a completely solved problem.
> On top of that, nuclear power plants don't work well together with renewables, as they can't switch their output level enough.
This isn't true either.
It's like everyone's opinion of nuclear power is stuck in the past, and no one can ever update their info.
Please point me out to a nuclear reactor design that can be switched from 100% to 0% in the matter of hours and back again.
Germany stored some nuclear waste in a salt mine, that turned into a huge debacle after only 30 years requiring now an immensely expensive recovery operation: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asse_II_mine
Oops.
Over those time frames that you mentioned the waste mostly the toxic properties are important. Btw how are we handling all that toxic chemical waste that is going to be toxic and dangerous not only for hundreds but thousands of millenia. Maybe we could just put it there.
> I mean, what's the point of a "nuclear waste free Earth" if our civilization collapses due to climate change?
That is a bit panic-fuelled and frankly even religious, while completely ignoring the immediate threat of radiation, which cannot be reversed for hundreds of thousands of years.
PS.: Climate change is going to happen whatever we do. This happened even before we existed.
Waiting hundreds of thousands of years is the simplest way to reverse the "threat of radiation". Each radioactive isotope has a half-life; if you wait ten half-lives, the "threat of radiation" is reduced by a thousand times, and the isotopes with very long half-lives aren't that radioactive to start with (roughly simplifying, the shorter the half-life, the more intense the radiation).
There has been a historic reversal in German foreign and security policy this week! Germans are already revising their opinions about Russia, climate, energy, defense and what the government and media espouse since they may have been the original impetus in forming their opinions.
I'm not sure anyone here will have a good answer for you, but anti-nuclear sentiment in Germany is incredibly strong.
Risks aside, renewables are cheaper. So why use an outdated technology like nuclear?
(Now, fission would be a different story. I am all for researching this intensively).
Nuclear is much better suited for base load power than solar and wind. Take a look at this graph of German energy by source and Tw/H.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_in_Germany#/media/Fil...
For all their good intentions of replacing nuclear with something cleaner and safer, you can see wind and solar grow, but not enough to offset the nuclear decrease. Natural gas consumption grows more to replace it. “Solar and wind instead of nuclear” is a false dichotomy because one can’t just swap out one with the other, at least not until grid batteries are far more available.
Regardless, it's not either nuclear or renewables. It should be a combination that works.
Apart from that, it is not like big windmills and sun farms have zero impact on the environment. In this case a nuclear factory might be big and ugly, but globally its immediate impact on nature might be a lot less than the aforementioned renewables.
1 kg of natural uranium gives 45,000 kWh of electricity; so the extraction of raw materials for nuclear has less impact on nature as well compared to many other solutions (e.g. for the same amount of electricity you would need nearly 10,000 kg of mineral oil or 14,000 kg of coal). [1]
Of course with nuclear you have problems with storage of waste and possible accidents, but its positive impact on climate change, great capacity for producing electricity and lower impact on nature than many other solutions, might make it the best solution we have at the time being?
Remember that heating in most of Europe is provided by natural gas. The primary need for heat is during the nighttime. Solar works only during the day, wind works great at dawn and dusk but not particularly well at night, and both of these systems have inherent unpredictability. You never know that there isn't some weather pattern that's going to take all your solar/wind down to 30% of its normal capacity for a week. Hydro and geothermal may fit the bill, but AFAIK Germany and Europe in general doesn't have the capacity.
The ultimate goal is a 100% renewable grid consisting of an energy storage system which will work all night, and will be recharged by solar and wind when those systems are operating at peak capacity. Natural gas heating will be replaced by heat pumps with a fallback to electric resistive heating when temperatures drop too low for a heat pump to be effective. Right now, there is no such energy storage system that will scale to meet these needs.
We'll get there one day, but until then, we need an energy generation technology that works all day every day with no dependencies on weather, and scale to the size of a continent. The only -- the only -- technologies that currently exist which do this are coal, natural gas, and nuclear. Pick one. You must pick one -- platitudes about renewable energy and technology which may or may not exist in a decade will not prevent the pipes from freezing tonight.
Right now, Germany has chosen coal and natural gas, and has phased out nuclear. IMHO this was the wrong choice.
(Before anyone says Germany has phased out coal, they have not phased out coal. Germany mines coal, selling coal to Poland, Poland uses coal to produce electricity, Germany buys electricity from Poland.)
> (Now, fission would be a different story. I am all for researching this intensively).
I suspect you meant fusion; I don't normally point out typos, but in this case, I think it's important.
/me thinks of the green instead read stripe of some Inter City Expresses and giggles :)
I think its more likely that we find a technical solution to radioactive waste then find a technical solution to a destroyed world (aka 3 Celsius hotter)
Current rollout of renewables in France has also been a financial disaster and I don't see many people talking about that.
I don't think so. Look at UK's recent transition to renewables. They're making big moves nowadays, but we only talk about Germany. France is going backwards (it was an excellent idea to build nuclear plants after WW2, but not so much today compared to renewables' plunging cost and progress in energy storage).
(and regarding apparent investment issues: is that definitely a case of poor financial results, or could it be that large up-front investments were required in order to foster development, and that the returns are just beginning?)
"On the other side we simply have the tech ... just not existing at all (and nobody knows if it will)."
What tech doesn't exist in your opinion? P2G is tech with "large scale planning issues".
As I said in another comment, France's investment in renewable has actually been even worse in terms of results than Flamanville. 120 billions euros (half of the cost of the whole nuclear grid) for 5% of the production, you can't really go lower than that.
In terms of carbon, the other European countries have a lot to catchup to reach France's level. They currently fight very hard against carbon pricing because well, that would mean the french industry would have an edge compared to them...
P2G just isn't good enough for now, let's be fair.
so what? France inefficiently invests into renewables, thus renewables aren't the answer and we wait for a miracle?
> P2G just isn't good enough for now, let's be fair.
what does good enough mean? not as cheap as burning subsidized natural gas?
Usually I would say that nuclear research and development dollars are wasted: they just displace purchasing solar/wind/storage. But with that big of an extant installed base, with approved/regulated sites and various other infrastructure, they may be the only country that can save money staying nuclear.
Of course, being a LFTR stan I would push for mass manufactured LFTRs the size of a couple shipping containers that can be decommissioned on a regular basis. 50 big nuclear plants replaced with about 1000 or more shipping container sized reactors on a replacement schedule.
LFTR would reduce waste, and separation of other fission products could be done elsewhere.
WHat is the French resistance to LFTR? I know that the US has strange bureaucratic resistances to LFTR built into academic funding and their regulatory agencies as an artifact of the ORNL reactor vs PWR reactor politics from the 1950s.
If France just piggybacking on the solid fuel rod reprocessing industry of the US and its same resistance to new reactor designs?
However, what has happened is that many many people have taken a swing at scalable reactors for a long time in the design phase.
And we do know the test ORNL reactor for MSR/LFTR practically fit in a closet, at least for the actual reactor.
So there is an opportunity.
We're not waiting on anything groundbreaking, no heroic technologies are needed. There is no magic. It's just a matter of manufacturing/install capacity and funds. It's like insulation for buildings: not sexy, but it works and it's a known quantity. Work backwards from first principles based on how much energy the Sun delivers to the planet.
US: https://gspp.berkeley.edu/faculty-and-impact/news/recent-new...
Australia: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S036054421... | https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2017.05.168
Europe: https://www.energyplan.eu/smartenergyeurope/ | https://www.irena.org/publications/2018/Feb/Renewable-energy... | https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S030626191...
Central/South America: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal... | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0173820
(if anyone has other resources for geographies I didn't mention, please comment with them to contribute to the knowledge graph!)
Why would this be necessary except in extreme environments (which don't exist in Germany)?
If solar produces 0 watts in Germany for an entire month we're all dead anyways.
Right now https://app.electricitymap.org/zone/DE as an indication, Germany is at around 30% production of their solar capacity.
At the end yeah you can get out of all of these issues by building 10x the required capacity, but that is reflected on the price and the space to build all of this though.
First there is a bit stability issue: when a load start to consume (zero feed in or on-battery/autonomous scenario) the solar inverter demand time (seconds!) to ramp up, when the load stop the solar inverter still feed too much power and we do not have ready available "super-condenser" (when a load pops-up) and "energy sponges" (when a load stop), the result is a not stable microgrid. IF we have a large enough grid where spike loads are not really spike than perhaps we can have stability but such kind of grid for solar and wind it's not there, the so called "smart grid" do exists only on paper.
Secondly all p.v. systems I know are sold as commercial product, but they prove to be more like initial prototypes, to make the microgrid stable software is much used, and in general it's correct name should be crapware. ModBUS RTU is the most monitoring-and-control universal protocol, in most cases with a crappy load of various kind of "bridge" (generally from classic serial to USB or to TCP) and being pull-based it's normally not suitable at microgrid scale. CanBUS is used for quicker communication and is used much like car's ODB: there is a standard, but almost all vendor "extend" it as they wish so interoperability is crappy. Even the most open of the p.v. systems I know of (Victron, witch base it's system on Debian and publish all the code) is an incredible pile of python glue code and scripts that can't be really considered "production ready". All such systems also are designed to live connected to the OEM, some are even hard to use without internet connectivity to their "home". Some even have hard-coded passwords with non-deactivable wifi, hard-coded per entire model series, like BYD batteries, an ideal target for a casual wardriver.
First: something can be "stored", for instance I have enough hot water to heat it just with solar (as long as there is enough day-to-day production), that's very good and ultimately easy, it's just about have enough space for a big boiler. Electricity on contrary can't be stored much: batteries are hyper-expensive and do not really last that longer. Most stressed batteries last 5 years, most 8 years, few perhaps can arrive at 10 but I'm not much convinced. Long story short, there is enough tech to power up few homes, built with proper insulation and implants etc to run that way, there is almost nothing at industry demand scale, not even to made such systems themselves.
- Germany is a densely populated country and Germans have always been sensitive towards environmental pollution. - Nuclear fallout is a reality as every consumer of mushrooms from Bavarian forests knows that are still today contaminated with caesium-137. - Finding a secure final storage for nuclear waste has failed. The front-runner in Gorleben proved to be unreliable after decades of serving as a temporary storage. - Most Germans believe that their country would have been obliterated if a nuclear war between East and West had turned hot. - Most Germans find that nuclear power generation comes with the proliferation of nuclear weapons.
From this vantage point, nuclear is not all that attractive.
The history of the German anti-nuclear movement is quite long, Chernobyl has essentially put a stop on new investments and killed any ongoing research for good (see THTR-300). This is also due to the ecological impact it had on Germany.
And now, because of this stop in new investments, Germany ended up with reactors stuck somewhere in between 1960 and 1980. Critical issues went unaddressed, the control rooms are cold war era time machines, incidents were swept under the rug for fear of it finally dropping the sword of damocles on the industry. Operators showed gross negligence all around (especially Vattenfall, who are now suing the German government over the phase out) and it's a small wonder we've not had a more serious incident (though significantly larger incidence of leukemia around Krümmel should probably be considered serious).
Nuclear is not happening here. The best we can hope for is keeping our fossil fuels mostly off and buying nuclear power from France until renewables are viable on their own (if ever).
What impact did it had on the environment in Germany?
So now tell me how this answers going climate neutral.
Because Nuclear energy emits a tiny fraction of the Co2 that fossil fuels emit for the same energy.
The mistake the Germans made, which they are now correcting, is over reliance on Russian gas to bridge the brief gap to energy neutrality. Though, in fairness, until Putin's melt-down last week, he could have saved that deal and kept on milking the Germans for billions for quite some time. Such melt-downs have not been seen in international politics since Trump reluctantly disappeared from it last year. You might say that Putin (whom Trump referred to as a 'genius' just last week) has trumped Trump in that respect.
Basically, the fix for Germany is importing expensive natural gas from the US and elsewhere as a stop gap solution while accelerating the move away from burning that to clean up the energy sector and lower cost.
That's what they just announced. 80% renewables eight years from now and 100% five years later. They are over 50% right now. Also, a recession is a great time to inject some capital into your economy. And of course the Germans have a healthy economy and low debt; unlike certain other countries. And of course they export a lot of their renewable tech to others; like the US.
Also, France and Germany have connected grids. So, with Germany producing lots of wind powrr and France providing nuclear base-load, both will be fine. No need for Germany to build nuclear plants. And no need for France to build a lot more plants either when they can import cheap German renewables to complement their expensive nuclear supply. The math to get rid of coal and natural gas in fifteen years actually adds up.
Importing gas from the US looks difficult given how polluting cargo ships are and the complete lack of capacity.
Importing gas even with the pollution associated with shipping it in is still better than burning lignite; which actually affects the health of lots of people in Germany and France (depending on winds). That's what they are trying to get rid off in the next eight years or so. Shutting down coal is the number 1 priority as it is by far the most polluting. If they could have done that with Russian gas that would have been better indeed. But that ship has sailed. Shutting down gas becomes the next priority after coal has been removed as a source of energy.
You keep on dragging in Trump. I'm not sure what your argument is other than that he did not do anything productive here other than promoting coal; which I would argue is indeed pure lunacy. Capacities can be scaled up if the price is right.
Maybe she is being granted German citizenship to become Secretary of State.
The actual secretary of state is from the Green party, Annalena Baerbock. She just deployed some great pragmatic & lateral thinking. They have an American lobbying as their official representative for their cause on the international stage and the US (obviously). And they export renewable tech to America. Win win. Move the cause further while doing some business.
I wouldn't necessarily have voted for the green party in Germany (I live here but I am not a German national), but this is both very rational and very smart. Loving it.
The dependency on gazprom kind of put us in "Schach", so we as a country can't do anything (as the chancellor kind of admitted in his speech).
Historically, Schroeder has always been the direct bridge to Putin. And he knows how to hold the mutual respect that Putin expects from others.
It seems as the current ruling parties don't realize that this is a game of strategy, not a game of moral or emotions. You can't win against Putin with moral code, so I kind of fear that they make it worse and he'll hold a grudge against Germany.
This crossed an emotional line with the entirety of Europe. Heck, I feel it in the United States. Russia/Putin are nuts and not entirely rational. They are actual palpable evil: a direct threat to your survival and prosperity.
Remember the dogs thing with Merkel and Putin? I'm sure the "elites" of the EU have wanted to get more coordinated against Russia, but the populace was a bit ... soft.
Putin may have motivated far more people than just the populace of the Ukraine.
Looking at the map and the conduct of the war so far, this is a massive geopolitical opportunity for the West. Set fleets of drones into Ukraine and repulse the forces. Actually, I would sucker Belarus into invasion (they've already announced it, have they actually done it).
That would provide a casus belli for Ukraine (ahem NATO) forces to then invade Belarus, the other major buffer state between the NATO and Russia. Topple their autocrat.
Then put Belarus and Ukraine into NATO. Then there is a wall of NATO states at the doorstep of Russia.
We’re already seeing scattered anecdotal examples of this happening to the Russian invasion force even without their supply lines being directly attacked. I wonder how difficult it would be for Western powers to assemble a fleet of drones, stick a bunch of Ukrainian flag decals on them, and then attack and disrupt the main Russian supply lines into Ukraine.
It would only take a few days of that before the Russian army runs out of material to fight the war with. Then Ukrainian troops can force a surrender, round them up, treat them appropriately under the Geneva Conventions, and then offer and encourage them to accept political asylum in the West. (Same with Belarus if they invade). Destroy or confiscate the materials.
Then boom, Russia no longer has an army. And without the West ever directly attacking the Russian (or Belorussian) homeland.
There is sort of a brother/sister relationship between the two countries and I suspect if the US agreed to float a basic income for a half a decade to defectors a good pamphlet drop on enemy troops could have them switching sides.
Right now, autocratic Russia and Saudi Arabia are actively colluding to drive up oil prices during the invasion of Ukraine.
https://theintercept.com/2022/02/23/ukraine-russia-gas-price...
EDIT: I misread the tone of the original comment, and have updated my comment to reflect it.
- Harder laws to build renewable energy source
- windmills that create electricity are banned and protested against in villages.
- solar parks are not build because they look bad
- EEG-Umlage which should be a tax to create more renewable sources will be terminated this year
- RWE is destroying villages to mine coal
- north stream 2 needed a war to not be finished
Hope this explains why it sounds like a joke
We will still need some big law changes to make this happen. I don't see it happening this fast as it should be to reach a goal of 100% in 2035.
Energy security is likely one of the most paramount issues in europe now, I expect there will be big changes.
The wind generators produce Gigwatts of power, more than our entire nuclear plants ever did already. They look beutiful like spanish countryside and the wildlife is safe from them due to new technology already implemented in new plants.
It's not an either or, europe should do everything and do it now, do solar, do wind, do tidal, do nuclear, do everything and do it now to get off Russian gas.
it's not as easy as you wish, besides that I would prefer like you would describe, unfortunatly as long as there are borders/humans/whatever there will always be conflicts.
I don't see how you can claim defense is a useless industry while the world is watching a sovereign nation defend itself against an invading army.
$150 billion might not be enough, unless Germany plans to play no role in defending the eastern flank of NATO as Russia marches. They have been badly underfunded for decades, $150b is a down payment on catching up.
Putin's Russia is going to be in an economic and political swamp for a long time for this, it wouldn't be surprising if he chooses to move on to a new target promptly after Ukraine just because why not. The same crazy calculation that gets us here, it isn't too far of a stretch from there to argue (if you're Putin) for trying to take some of Finland's territory.
Germany needs to take this very seriously and I think they're beginning to.
https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/correction-ge...
https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/ukraine-russia-news-02-...
This entire concept is called Sektorenkopplung.
Due to low ownership rate of apartments, why would a landlord invest more money in heating with heatpumps or using more efficient insulation materials when he would bear the costs, but the tenant would get the benefits? So they only do it when forced to, or it is cheaper to use renewables.
Most of Germany, including politicians and home owners would quite gladly stay on fossil fuels aside from some blowhards who talk more than act.
Do they have the grid capacity to support people using more electric space heaters and less gas for heat?
My home uses gas heat. I suppose if there was some kind gas shortage I have to turn the thermostat down to the minimum needed to keep the pipes from freezing, then use space heaters to bring in-use rooms up to a livable temp.
But you've got to have both tactical and strategic responses, and the tactical solution may entail taking a hit from higher prices (though if that hit can be mitigated by other policy changes, like temporarily reducing taxes, that should be pursued as part of the tactical solution).
Tactical/short term: massively reducing gas use and trying to mitigate the short-term consequences by keeping nuclear online to power electric space heaters:
Strategic/long term: Switching all the buildings over to heat pumps powered by green energy.
https://www.windpowermonthly.com/article/1737041/wind-genera...
https://www.dw.com/en/germany-coal-tops-wind-as-primary-elec...
The reality of relying on things like wind is that you have to either over-produce, or have a backup, and the backup is usually coal.
If Nuclear plants had not been unnecessarily shuttered, Germany would be more prepared to weather the weather, instead of increasing coal burning significantly.
Additionally, new German homes are required, by law, to be build in a way that will not use 1. Gas for Heating 2. a lot of energy at all.
Additionally local energy storage and production in homes is encourgaged with 45% of funding coming from the German state.
Coal normally makes no sense to back wind, which is why Britain has been shutting coal plants while building ever more wind farms.
Germany is doing better at decarbonization than most countries, in fact, but still attracts a disproportionate amount of flak for "not doing enough".
My cynical side says that this is precisely because they're slowly proving that nuclear isnt a necessary component of decarbonization. They are setting an example that threatens the industry's survival.
That remains to be seen. We would need to see what their progress is 5, 10, and then 15 years from now. I think the 2035 target would take a miracle to actually accomplish without Nuclear Power.
https://www.luxresearchinc.com/blog/li-ion-manufacturing-in-...
> Lux expects the global annual Li-ion manufacturing capacity to more than triple by 2024.
That 2TWh or 45 minutes of storage for the whole world added annually.
With this manufacturing capacity it will be possible to have 2h of storage before 2030, which greatly increases the amount of renewable energy which could be utilized.
I'd say if not 100%, then 80% is realistic. Wind and solar combined make up around 30% already, so it's a question of doubling that number and adding appropriate storage.
the reactor near Hamburg was either broken or not running for some other reasons.
Also after 40 years of nuclear plants we still have not a good answer to the waste it produces.
That waste argument is repeated over and over again and just not relevant. Even if the waste problem is as massive as politics tries to claim (it isn't), that's not relevant for keeping the reactors running or even building new ones.
The absolute volume of waste produced is so low that keeping on relying on fission isn't changing the already existing waste problem in any meaningful way especially when considering breeding type reactors that can recycle existing "waste".
The argument is nothing but anti-fission propaganda and I wish it would stop being brought up as the first line of defense all the time.
These are pretty old reactors from the 80s or earlier.
Calling it propaganda tells me just one thing: its a waste of time discussing this more.
I always thought the security/proliferation arguments against nuclear power were the most convincing, but in germany's case I think the alternative has been worse on this front too.
World best solar panels but yeah for some reason they solid it to other countries or companies.
So no fossil was not the only way of going forward and it still isn't
Germany's conservative government then just ignored the German's companies cries for help, costing 200_000 jobs. Why? Well that were moslty voters for the greens, so their jobs weren't of interest.
IMO nuclear is the only real way out of the current mess.
any idea why we dont have several operational MSRs at this point?
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Molten_salt_reactor
EDIT: i guess MSRs' structural components are subject to extreme corrosion from heat, salt, and radiation that makes them impossible to build for long-term continous operation.
And instead, you burn coal and Gaz which creates even more waste which we can't even store. The difference is that the nuclear waste are localised near you, while the CO2 is spread globally and mostly affect warmer country we don't care about.
> So simply put, there are around 17 meteors every year that hit ground and can cause a disaster
The disaster is made worse because of nuclear infrastructure. But I don't see the point. It is already a disaster to begin with. Look at Fukushima, the real disaster was the earthquake and tsunami that killed and destroyed lots of homes. The incident in the nuclear plant in the area did make it slightly worse, but not by much. Even though the media seem to blame the whole thing on the power plant.
While distance can make them safer, it also makes them less efficient.
There are no standard designs for nuclear reactors yet, although this is slowly changing.
Nuclear reactors have always been run at great subsidy.
Only two MSRs have ever been built, over half a century ago and have a huge list of disadvantages. Not saying that can't be overcome, but it takes time, money, and will. There is some movement in this area.
With solar and wind making such great strides, advantages of nuclear are decreasing.
Markets are not omniscient of course, and they might be ineffective, but it's something to think about when discussing nuclear energy.
the free market is made up of people who primarily watch sensational evening news and follow clickbait social media. the actual statistics are still well on the side of nuclear in terms of safety and externalities (as far as i understand)
Also, in typical governmental fashion (see: rocket building before SpaceX) power plants were optimized for (size???) instead of safety, cost and time to build.
Things you don't have to optimize for: efficiency
Make it fast to build and in self-contained modules (economies of scale). Make it failsafe (even if it costs efficiency)
These are called "blueprint reactors", because designing a nuclear reactor is easy, but building one is hard.
They exist in nuclear subs. There needs to be investment and research to make them commercially viable.
That means that it’s not a near-term solution, and also may turn out to not be viable at all.
Now yesterday Robert Habeck, Germany's minister for economic affairs and climate, and vice chancellor, claimed that a return to nuclear and/or coal is economically not viable, even if it were politically feasible (which it is not, since it would be political suicide given he's from the Green party). He's not stupid, so he knows he'll have to answer how in hell people will even heat their homes come next winter. Not only are energy prices up, but so are materials for home insulation (if you can get them at all) and prices for construction.
Right now, the government has plans to penalize landlords renting out homes with low energy efficiency, a plan typical of the SPD party, the Green party's coalition partner. Which won't work, though, because there simply is no way to reach those levels of energy efficiency given the demand in the construction industry, and in a way that decouples the consumer from their consumption, not to speak of constitutional (existing case law) concerns.
Meanwhile, the housing market is as insane as everywhere due to rampant public spending and the decrease in interest that goes with it. Adding ever more energy efficiency requirements means that it's objectively impossible for any average person to own a home.
As a German, I always wonder why the obvious flaw in these kind of discussions is never addressed: The current heating habbits of our German population is luxury heating - that is we heat every room to be comfy and luxurious standards. And people just claim "Germany needs X percent of gas for heating". But the truth is, if we would not have that gas, or prices would be insanely high, people will change their habits regarding heating and we would need less.
I myself had multiple discussion with my better half in winter when she was cranking up the heater in all rooms, to a level she could just walk around in light underwear and comfy dresses. I always rather heat a single room, close the door, and snug into my skiing thermos, sweatpants and sweater - and keep the time on the can short (not taking the smartphone helps) because its cold in there. This is actually sufficient for most time of the year (minus Mountain regions, but which are only sparsely populated). We do not have siberian winters. And I remember as a child at grandmas, there was a single wooden oven in the living room ("Stube"), everybody was in there together. The bedrooms where not heated at all, instead you take a thermos bottle (or even just hot potatoes in a tin) with you into the bed for the night - of course wearing long-sleeved tights and underwear.
I think a winter without heating would make people in our society aware what luxuries we've gotten accustomed to, and also show people how little one needs when things get serious.
The exit from nuclear power has been planned long ago, but the crucial point is, that in those years the renewables were not expanded enough. Solar buid-up peaked in 2012, Wind in 2017, with steep declines after that because of government decisions. But the government changed last autumn and the new one is all in on renewables. Partially because of the Greens being part of the government and now partially because even industry pushes for this to get cheaper electricity. And everyone wants stable supply and the current situation makes for a huge push towards renewables.
Natural gas makes up 25% of Germany’s total energy consumption, and the country relies on Russia for 55% of its gas supply. If these imports were to suddenly cease, the EU’s largest economy and most populous country would find itself in dire straits."
https://fortune.com/2022/02/25/ukraine-invasion-russia-germa...
Just like how europe "recycled" their garbage by shipping it to china who just probably dumped it god knows where.
https://www.politico.eu/article/europe-recycling-china-trash...
Just like how norway is "environmentally friendly" because they buy so many electric cars, but they are just behind saudi arabia in oil production on a per capita basis.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_oil_produ...
One thing european countries excel at is producing great PR. Saudi arabia's PR campaign should be : "Saudi Arabia, we are just as environmentally friendly as Norway".
Why?
A watt is a watt, and renewables are cost-competitive with carbon even before taking into consideration geopolitics.
But, more importantly, renewables don't even have to be cost competitive to keep manufacturing in Germany while transitioning to renewables.
Ukraine has opened up political space for subsidy that may not have existed a year ago. Germany just doubled their defense spending. To say that this was unimaginable even three weeks ago, if anything, under-states the case.
I highly doubt there is political will in Germany to offshore manufacturing, and I'm pretty sure there is newly found political will to transition off of natgas. In particular, subsidizing energy prices to keep German manufacturing competitive while weaning off of RU natgas is likely an easy sell.
I think it's much more likely that Germany shifts off of natgas and in the meantime subsidizes energy for manufacturing, than that Germany allows manufacturing to offshore as a result of energy price spikes due to renewable transition.
> One thing european countries excel at is producing great PR.
Not at all surprising when you realize that the entire political economy of the west -- democracy and consumer/financial capitalism -- is almost by design dominated by people and institutions who are good at PR.
A major geopolitical theme in the 2010s was the fact that open societies have major weaknesses in open information warfare.
The next decade of the global info war will be interesting. I think we'll learn that, although you can easily cause petty chaos and divisiveness in the west, the institutions and core values are very robust. After all, those institutions and values are subject to -- and always have been subject to -- constant and open assault.
I think we'll also learn that authoritarian states have almost a mirror opposite dynamics of the west -- fueling petty divisions in much harder, but once you gain a foothold the whole system is much less robust to total collapse.
That was my point. And pollution is pollution. Shifting it to a third world country and clearing it off your books doesn't make you virtuous nor environmentally friendly. As I pointed it out with the european "recycling" scam.
> renewables are cost-competitive with carbon even before taking into consideration geopolitics
The largest source of renewables is biomass.
https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/renewable-sources/
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/jun/30/wood-pel...
> Not at all surprising when you realize that the entire political economy of the west
I didn't say it was surprising. Also why take this into a bizarre geopolitical tangent?
I think it's highly unlikely that Germany will offshore its Mittelstand.
> The largest source of renewables is biomass.
I'm not really sure what point you're making here.
> Also why take this into a bizarre geopolitical tangent?
This is 100% your tangent... why mention Saudi Arabia and Norway PR on an article about Germany?
e: generally speaking, we're not disagreeing about much, so I think this exchange is possibly due to your confusion regarding what this article is about. You seem to think the article is primarily about Germany posturing around climate change and GHG. It's not. This article is about German energy independence and European geopolitics. This policy change was announced on the eve of war in Europe, not as a follow-up to a climate conference.
I didn't say they will.
> I'm not really sure what point you're making here.
A significant portion of renewables aren't as environmentally friendly as we think.
> This is 100% your tangent... why mention Saudi Arabia and Norway PR on an article about Germany?
Norway releases tons of PR about how environmentally friendly they are especially by how much EVs they buy. But on a closer look, they produce as much oil as saudi arabia on a per capita basis.
I picked Saudi Arabia because they are the closest per capita producers to norway. I provided the source. Sort by "per capita" and you'll see norway right below saudi arabia. I picked saudi arabia because nobody in their right mind would say saudi arabia is "environmentally friendly". And yet we pretend norway is.
My point is that european countries aren't as environmentally friendly as their PR says they are. Shipping garbage to china and claiming you recycle 100% of your garbage is not environmentally friendly. Producing as much oil as saudi arabia and buying a few EVs doesn't make you environmentally friendly. Releasing PR saying you are environmentally friendly doesn't make you environmentally friendly. Not sure why you are injecting geopolitics, democracy, etc into this.
Replacing oil heating is subsidized by 45% Replacing gas heating is subsidized by upto 30%.
Additional details: https://www.cleanenergywire.org/news/germany-aims-100-green-...
For those interested in this topic further, Our World in Data project has an energy profile for the country: https://ourworldindata.org/energy/country/germany
But what gets offset? Before last week, I would've assumed coal/lignite/oil. The real development is a shift in priorities -- namely, from decreasing GHG to weaning off of Russian natgas.
What I don't quite understand is how all of this additional renewable energy production is supposed to offset natgas... electrifying the entire country's HVAC infrastructure seems like almost a bigger hurdle than increasing renewable production?
The previous chancellor was in power for more than 16 years.
But indeed, a lot of things have to be changed quickly to achieve the desired results, but recent events have given a lot of motivation to do so even with those, who are not so much concerned about the environment. Now even the industry is driving this, as they are impacted with high electricity prices and possible shortages.
I hope they make sure, municipalities can't wiggle their way out of building windparks anymore.
Let's hope at least a part of that amount would be used for achieving an energy independence, as the military goal number one.
I assume Germany/Europe is having or will have the same housing rental/ownership price explosion as USA? Or is this just a US money-grab kind of thing?
I can't see what will change that cost spike except cheap energy.
Ha, joke's on you. Home ownership in Germany (and most of the developed EU) is far more expensive than in the US when you factor median wages to median real estate prices ratio.
Americans complain a lot but real estate there is far more in reach for the average skilled worker than it is in Germany for example. The price per square foot/meter in Munich or Paris is nearly the same as in the Bay Area yet wages here are half to a quarter of that of the US workers. It's insane.
Rentals in Germany are more affordable, but that's only if you get a place in the 80 person queue who signed up for the apartment viewing within the first hour since the listing went up online. Apartment hunting in places like Germany or Sweden is a meme on its own.
By 2007 this had increased to 7.1, then the crash happened. It had bounced back to 7.7 by 2020 and it's well over 8, maybe 8.5 today.
A US house is of course far larger. An average European house is about 1000 square foot. An average American bathroom is about that size*
* slight hyperbole
Germany needs to start building nuclear TODAY. But good luck trying that with the Greens in the government coalition.
I won't go into details. The math simply doesn't add up, not technological and not economy-wise.
Generating as much electricity as the total electricity they use is not the same as having renewably generated energy stored and ready to use at all times of day, around the year, and for purposes that would have historically used fossil fuels.
If you're burning fossil fuels for heating and transport and even electricity, that's not "100% renewable energy".
It requires degassing heating infrastructure and dealing with the massive increase in power demand that causes. As well as making it cheaper. It has to half in price to avoid heating inflation.
Electrification of transport will take decades to complete.
To reiterate, I'm not saying that Germany is aiming in the wrong direction, it's just hard to grok what they actually mean. Having seen British politicians screw this up for a quick win, I'm not optimistic.
For storage, there's overbuilding capacity and using excess to generate hygrogen (and thus convert it back), storage from cars, potential for hydro storage in the alps and pyrinees, and in the short term gas provision from UK/Norway for top up, should be more than enough to maintain independence and resilience.
But there's more money in burning fossils.
- Law of physics
Remember that renewables are promoted by the fossil fuel industries, because it gives them more business.
This is a worse joke than nuclear fusion being 10 years out. They should be aiming for zero new installs (including ICE cars) by 2025, and zero emissions by 2030.
Any idea how to set up a ballot initiative like that in California? We’ve also pushed the internal combustion engine to zero emission vehicle transition out to 2035.
Energiewende is an extremely expensive project that is simply not going to work, what is clarify to some extent for example here [1]. It is economical absurdity, it is as if someone would try to built Perpetuum mobile, but breaking laws of economy. In fact, anyone can find in the internet sunny days stats for Germany and check by themselves if this has any chance to work on a truly large scale without existing efficient energy storage.
In addition Energiewende considers gas as green energy source, what is a joke, and, what is even more ridiculous, "biomas" is also green energy source, no idea how burning wood and corn is not emitting CO2, but, hey, ecologist are not doing something totally nuts for the first time, so not a big surprise.
Fighting nuclear energy for last 60 years worked so well for Greenpeace and others that we are in the today's crappy situation, but still nobody is saying, hey guys it seems you were dead wrong about nukes, it seems that's the only clean and practical, CO2 emission free energy source, isn't it?
If Germany didn't waste all those trillions of dollars for Energiewende of solar and wind power plants, but built reactors instead, they would have practically CO2-free economy now, but former chancellor, Mr. Gerhard Schröder, would not get a nice job in Gazprom in that case.
[1] https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelshellenberger/2019/05/06...
All fossil power was once energy given by the sun.
Gas is only considered green when the generators can be used for hydrogen later.
The hydrogen will be produced by electrolyzers using overproduction of renewable energy.
Gerhard Schröder is an idiot, we agree.