And funny how crypto markets have not realized this at all yet e.g. https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_RUB - i would have thought with 24/7 trading (unlike futures which take a break for the weekend), they'd be leading indicators
That said most of those counter parties are closed because they trade in Europe & the US.
For all of the post-fiat arguments for crypto, this will have an effect in crypto markets as well. I wouldn’t be surprised if this causes a new round of regulation as well.
I would do it but I expect I'd be beaten to it with how long it would take to open an account at Binance
That is to say you’ll pay a gigantic premium on that trade.
That said, my impression is that flat would be tough and liquidity would be a real problem.
You really don't want to get cut out of the international banking system. It's not a good time. You lose your correspondent banking relationships and you get rekt.
In fact this happened humorously enough with Bitfinex/Tether and Noble Bank. After they talked Noble into banking them, they lost their correspondent banking relationship in the US and were forced into insolvency. [1]
[1] https://ag.ny.gov/sites/default/files/2021.02.17_-_settlemen...
That's literally the value proposition of crypto. That you can conduct international transactions without permission.
So either...
(1) The raison d'etre hasn't been met, and therefore, it's not really providing any value over a permissioned system. Or...
(2) It works exactly as designed, allowing permissionless payments across borders and so oligarchs and demagogues can transact internationally in violation of international sanctions.
I don't see a good outcome. Am I missing something?
Proof-of-work cryptocurrencies automatically adjust to use as much energy as possible (the amount of energy which can be bought with the block reward and fees acts as a cap, and the incentives are to increase the amount of energy used until reaching that point). If energy prices increase, they will adjust by using less energy. This has no effect on the block sizes or block intervals, so the feasibility or lack of it of any mainstream cryptocurrency will be unaffected.
Genuine question: why would I fight to defend the “feee world” if at the end of the day, no matter the people in charge, I have no freedom?
Especially with current govt. track record.
Is it possible that a "free world" may still have some restrictions on actions that have impact beyond the individual making them?
Banning cryptocurrency is not just “some restriction”. It is an authoritarian violation of my property rights.
The environmental impacts of cryptocurrencies have been discussed at length here on HN and elsewhere.
> Obviously, the river is a public good that I share with others, it is not mine to pollute.
Similarly, reining in war crimes is a public good, and sanctions are not yours to violate.
The environmental impacts of cryptocurrency are not worse than any other economic activity, because any human activity requires energy. You are picking and choosing which activities are "bad for the environment" for purely political reasons.
> reining in war crimes is a public good, and sanctions are not yours to violate
Every war is a crime. These "sanctions" are also a crime and they are ruining the lives of innocent civilians who have nothing to do with the decisions of their government.
You are willing to give up your own freedom and comfort for the war effort and trying to enlist everyone else into your war.
Not necessarily. Just use the secondary sanctions mechanism, same ones that make selling Russian gold problematic. Crypto, unlike gold, also permits one to publicly flag tainted wallets.
That's why I said I believe the Fed is working out the parameters of the ban. I don't think it will be an outright total ban, but some type of selective interdiction.
Sanctions aren’t the Fed’s business.
If this were being worked on, and there is zero evidence it is, for all we get enamoured by crypto it’s too insignificant to merit serious attention at this level, it would be at Treasury and Commerce.
At-least stocks have assets and cash flows linked to them.
What does crypto have?
Crypto is pure pricing.
Demand goes up, supply stays the same, price goes up.
With crypto, the whole cycle is pure pricing. Say a bank converts crypto to money, the bank has no other way to use the crypto, other than selling it back on the exchange, presumably to other retail "investors" or other banks.
With no asset actually anchoring it, a crypto is an extremely weak pricing product that moves with sentiments, emotions and feelings.