The United States military is the most powerful military on the planet. Any suggestion that they will be defeated in Afghanistan is wishful thinking.
You don't win insurgencies, especially when people are defending their homes and money and material is coming from outside.
The US is not Russia and Bush/Obama/Trump/Biden is not Putin. While no one can predict what he is thinking, the Second Chechen War could be a template if the Ukrainian leadership does not yield.
I, too, can needlessly zoom in to try and refute any comparisons to other situations.
If anything, not being applicable to Afghanistan is even worse for Russia, considering how little international support Afghanistan received, and how much worse at urban warfare the Russian military is compared to the US military.
It is not about random comparisons but the will to follow through on what must be done. The US had no real stake in Afghanistan. Russia did in Chechnya and it does in Ukraine.
We will know in a few weeks what his plan is as it is executed on the ground.
And no, we won't have any clue about what "his" plan was, because it's already failed. Now we will see how Russia's military reacts to initial failure.