Sanctions Leave Out Oil | Hacker News Reader

Sanctions Leave Out Oil

apnews.com

14 pointsimoldfella10 comments

Key quote from the story:

"I don’t think Russia is blind to what is going on and it must indicate to them that the West does not really have the stomach for a painful fight over Ukraine.”

The West will help Ukraine but not too much. As we've seen with SWIFT, it's still possible that this decision will be overturned.

Not from the article, but I read elsewhere that the sanctions also have a carve-out exclusion for Italian luxury goods - certainly not a NEED

Also, in the case of the United States, Canada and Germany our energy dependency on Russian oil is entirely self-inflicted. There were other options but the short-term optics of environmental concerns superceded the desire for energy independence - now we are seeing the implications of those decisions.

The Roman Empire went from being the birth of modern western civilization, to a people crucially dependent on selling unnecessary handbags to Russian war tyrants.

We NEED russian gas and oil. They need to sell it to us. So no neither side CAN sanction it for now.

The best we can do is a huge, rapid expansion of import capacity from other countries.

It's not a need, it's a want. Oil and gas are fungible products and can be replaced by goods from other countries. Right now Europe just doesn't WANT to change, as it will cost a significant amount of money to revamp supply chains, and vendors from other regions already know that they can charge higher prices. How much is Europe's security really worth?

Right now we don't have the infrastructure to import enough gas from anywhere else. I'm all in favour of building that infrastructure. But until that gas actually happened, an actual supply shortage would literally mean some people died of hypothermia or lack of reliable electricity supply.

Germany has previously had to deal with gas and oil shortages. During WW2, Germany produced significant amounts of synthetic gas and oil from coal because they were forced to. The only thing holding Europe back right now is the will to act. At some point the cost of allowing Russia to proceed will exceed the cost to make changes, and once that happens, Europe will act. In war people die, and it doesn't matter if the immediate cause was hypothermia or something else as the underlying cause is the war. War means that it's no longer business as usual for all sides.

Except that that was 70 years ago, gas use was 10 times lower, they'd had years to prep etc...

Also, "in war people die"!?

So when should we expect you to volunteer at the Ukrainian state?

I think there is a significant possibility that the war in Ukraine can expand beyond Ukraine's borders. If that happens, all bets are off. Europe now knows that it has created an out of control monster, and you can be 100% certain that the governments of its member states are actively planning how to cut their dependence on Gazprom as fast as humanly possible. It's no longer a what if scenario, it is now something that has to be contained.

We NEED russian gas and oil.

No, it's just a "want" (based on price point) like the other commenter said. Europe has other needs, like long-term security and stability. If these become threatened, it can easily (enough) find ways to offset the rise in prices caused by climbing down from Russia's teat.

They need to sell it to us.

On that point you are absolutely correct.

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