Ask HN: What is the likelihood of nuclear war in 2022? | Hacker News Reader

Ask HN: What is the likelihood of nuclear war in 2022?

13 pointsRomanPushkin15 comments

A few too many known unknowns (and probably a lot of unknown unknowns) to estimate with any confidence, but certainly higher than it seemed a couple of weeks ago (which was effectively 0%).

My pessimistic take is that it is currently about 2%, or 1-in-50, which is far too high for comfort.

Much as I hate to admit it, quite high.

The US is confined by its Wolfowitz Doctrine, Russia is confined by its history of 25 million dead in WW2.

Neither is capable of backing down. Things will proceed to nuclear.

Will is fear thinking. Don't give in to it. Might is the strong word for now. It's not the most likely outcome right now, it's too early to say.

The US can certainly back down. They would much rather lose Ukraine (and perhaps even more of Europe) than start a nuclear war.

Also, "things will proceed to nuclear" means that you think Putin will initiate the end of human (and most plant) life on Earth.

I don't think the richest man alive, who seems to desire material possessions and power over almost anything else, would want the world to end completely. He could leave office now and have an incredibly pleasant life.

Also, "things will proceed to nuclear" means that you think Putin will initiate the end of human (and most plant) life on Earth.

Actually, I think the initiation will come from the US side. Read up on the Wolfowitz Doctrine. The US will not allow that they lose the 'Number One', 'Exceptional' crown and will do anything to prevent that.

A 30-year-old document written by someone of a completely different era (and political party) to the current administration has nothing to do with anything.

Joe Biden is not going to initiate nuclear strikes. Russia has automated nuclear weapons that would launch without human intervention, leading to the end of the world.

If Biden doesn't initiate nuclear strikes and Russia wins this war, the only thing lost would be Ukraine.

If Biden does initiate unclear strikes, the entire world would be lost.

Biden is not going to sacrifice all human life to save Ukraine.

Read up on mutually-assured destruction.

A 30-year-old document written by someone of a completely different era (and political party) to the current administration has nothing to do with anything.

I hate to break this to you but the neocons are still well in control of the US. Wolfowitz is a neocon.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_Wolfowitz

Little to none I hope.

Nuclear weapons are their most powerful when not used.

I think close to 0. In my opinion, space and cyber warfare will be the new norm for the foreseeable future.

More seriously, you have an un-hinged dictator with nuclear weapons - when he loses, who knows what he'll do. A real egotarian would say "If I can't win, then everyone has to lose". The only upside is that there's one less dictator (wannabe?) with his finger on the nuclear button than there was last year.

In other words - more than zero, and more than in "normal times"?

The warnings issued by Putin to not interfere and the West's "drawing a line in the sand" reminds me a bit of the Cuban missile crisis (though it's Russia who's claiming a free Ukraine weakens their sovereignty. But going back further in time, we've seen that doing nothing (when Hitler invaded Poland) is not diplomacy but rather emboldened him that the world would stand-by and do nothing.

For WMD level nuclear, my guess is quite low. Other user have said in other thread that there are several instances of nuclear threats in cold war era that should be launched, but didn't because the risk is too great.

Talking about Russia, AFAIK only Putin that is cornered enough to want to use it (and his aides I guess). The world, AFAIK, signals that they won't have problem forgiving Russia if the current regime changes. So I guess it's higher for civil war / coup in Russia before nuclear solution.

I don't know with smaller tactical nuclear though (district size maybe).

None.

(Potential famous last word)

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