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worik

About time.

Now stop buying Russian oil.

If they are serious. Are they?

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What happens when winter comes?

Europe is heated by gas from Russian pipelines. If nordstream 2 had come online they were going to get 80% of their fuel from Russia.

Alternative energy sources weren't ready for the load and post Fukushima there were huge pressure to shut down nuclear power.

We've been painting ourselves into a corner for awhile.

Plans are already underway to divert gas to Europe https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/jan/25/us-europe-ru...

What are the economics of large scale LNG shipments versus a pipeline? This is at best a lifeline, not an alternative.

It is also a very attractive target.

Currently, the EU imports something like 100bcm of LNG, far more than the capacity of Nordstream. Now, upping that significantly might be difficult (in particular, there isn't the terminal capacity right now), but it isn't all that out-there.

https://www.bloombergquint.com/business/italy-could-revive-c...

Couldn't we encourage people to take converted container ships to the middle east, ie Egypt, Tunisia, Morocco or South America to enjoy an enjoyable warm "winter" ? All that heavy "German" industry producing cars and other such stuff could take a break too... like during the initial Covid outbreak, skies would be clearer... Also how about using our shit producing plumbing system to provide a lot of biogas.... Adversity is the mother of invention... I'm just glad that so far it's been a warmish February... but I sure as hell wish this serves as an example for an enlightened future when we stop buying stuff from autocratic regimes like MBS and China to get them to change... but one can only dream that the geriatric leadership realises that it can save the planet from burning up and not give in to Putin (ironically his name means "little" in Romanian)

>Couldn't we encourage people to take converted container ships to the middle east, ie Egypt, Tunisia, Morocco or South America to enjoy an enjoyable warm "winter" ?

you mean get people to temporarily emigrate to north africa?

Yeah I spent 2 months in Egypt, 400$ per month including flight and visa, that may seem extreme but it's very cheap. IMO if Europeans took advantage of cheap doctor and dentistry and fresher products while taking a couple of months off work (unpaid leave) it would also give a big economic and social impulse... Besides learning arabic a language used by a big fraction of humanity including many Europeans was both enlightening and fun :-)

While this might work for an individual, or a group of adventurous hacker news readers, I doubt this would work for a significant portion of the country. It's certainly not big enough portion of the country needed to make a noticeable dent on energy demand. Also, think about how such a migration would affect the local economy. Once all the knowledge workers (ie. the people who can work remote) leave, their spending will dry up, causing local business to shut down and non-remote workers to lose their jobs. The economy will enter a downward spiral.

I'd just like to correct you, nowhere did I mention WFH... I actually meant 2 months "holiday" at the moment there is talk of work 4 days get paid 5... Besides it kind of happened during Covid.. There is a movement in France, called "decroissance" (less growth) and really we should be imagining it in terms of reduced energy consumption by all means and increased human value... I could go on and on but one thing strikes me, ATM in Switzerland people are obligated to pay for health insurance, they have one of the lowest corporate tax rates, yet 400$/per month is usual... it just feeds the managers....(besides being what I spent in a month)

Well this is the End of February and Spring is in a month. Decent chance the timing of this invasion on Russia’s part is for exactly the same reason.

So, the question as I see it is: will this war continue into the next winter?

Why is now better timing? Last few months I was reading Putin wanted to wait for the depth of winter, so Europe couldn't retaliate without risking angry and cold voters. But the mild winter has meant his plan wasn't working out. Maybe he got mad at the weather and got desperate...

Hadn’t honestly considered that angle of it. Historically Spring is prime war making time precisely because the winter cold is not conducive to an effective mobilization effort. Even if you’re better equipped to handle the cold, winter still sucks.

https://www.foxweather.com/weather-news/weather-is-clearly-a...

Given they've had 8 years warning, no, probably not

>Now stop buying Russian oil.

This is precisely what will happen. How do you buy russian oil if you cannot transfer money to Russia?

That's what SWIFT removal does. Effectively means Russia cannot import or export anything. China has made 1 exception, they will still import russian wheat and that's it.

Oil and gas payments are not affected by blacklisting the already sanctioned banks in Swift.

a boatload of gucci moccasins and german luxury cars for a tanker full of crude, obviously.

> China has made 1 exception, they will still import russian wheat and that's it.

Are you saying China won't import Russian oil?

Theoretically possibly by bartering for oil. The EU already has such a mechanism in place for buying oil from Iran: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Instrument_in_Support_of_Trade...

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