Hacker News Reader

Comment by chefkoch | Hacker News Reader

Sure, the russians who have been fighting in syria since 2015 and who have build more than 8000 of their most modern tank run out of ammo in 2 days.

It would be really good news, but that's totally unbelievable.

View on HN

They lost more soldiers just today than in all of the syrian war. And it's not about "all of russia ran out of ammo", it's "they overstretched their supply lines and can't supply enough ammo, fuel, etc, so their forces have just what they took with them".

It's only a four hours drive from russia to kiev, i can't believe one of the biggest armies in the World can Not find enough trucks to do this.

It also seems unlikely to me and I am skeptical. But logistics are hard under fire? Does Russia control the airspace or are the rumors true that Ukraine still has aircraft? Are there enemy teams with shoulder-launched missiles along the route? With cheap drones for reconnaissance?

My impression is that the country is full of handheld antiair and antitank weapons, supplied by the west. That can't make it easy.

While troops were deployed to Belarus for “exercises”, there were lots of reports of them selling fuel and other supplies.

That could have complicated logistics for the invasion.

Majority of Ukrainian aircraft is intact. Drones are being used.

>Are there enemy teams with shoulder-launched missiles along the route?

Yes, and civilians are doing whatever they can to stop them.

>My impression is that the country is full of handheld antiair and antitank weapons, supplied by the west. That can't make it easy.

Yes. It's true, and more are coming.

And those that are coming are state-of-the-art. It is quite possible that they're going to be effective enough for one kill per weapon and the volume flooding in is going to go through the Russian armour like the clap.

> Does Russia control the airspace or are the rumors true that Ukraine still has aircraft?

Hard to know for sure, since this is an information that really affect morale on either side (Knowing that you still have airplanes and that the Russians don't control the sky is really good for Ukrainian morale, and vice versa).

Russia claimed that their rockets destroyed Ukrainian planes and anti-aircraft defense in the first strike. And then they started loosing their own planes, tanks and trains to Ukrainian air forces. Planes simply weren't where Russians thought they would be, since there is large supply of leaks from Russian side, and Ukrainian military knew exactly when they would attack(they ended up striking an hour late tbh).

I'm a veteran and was did convoy security overseas as part of my service. I can believe it. Logistics is hard.

Glad for fuel thieves, and supplies embezzlers in Russian army now.

It is not about trucks. If you've been paying attention, you saw that they just went for Kyiv and didn't bother capturing cities or territory, which left their supply lines VERY vulnerable to the Ukrainian army. And they didn't think that the operation will be longer than a couple of days, so didn't bother to take many supplies with them. They drastically underestimated the Ukrainian army and the Ukrainian people's will to fight.

> And they didn't think that the operation will be longer than a couple of days,

Why would they think that and more important why wouldn't they plan for a non ideal outcome.

Ukraine is a huge country, bigger than iraq with more people, how could you be so sure?

But then again my expertice comes from playing Command & Conquest.

Because their stated goal is basically to capture Kyiv and install their own government. They were expecting that everything would go like Crimean operation, but didn't account for the fact that Ukrainian army evolved since, have lots of experience fighting russia-backed separatists in Donbass region and is much more passionate about fighting than 8 years ago, when russian army conducted Crimean operation.

I don't really understand how they could have expected that, since Ukrainians had been told in NOVEMBER that the operation was coming. (And I'm talking about the laypeople, just watching TV, Ukrainian officials were likely given much more details from US intelligence than just what Blinken said on CNN…)

Expecting to catch your opponent off-guard with a quick assault might work, but not if you give them a four-month notice beforehand…

I watched Putin's addresses. He is out of touch with reality. Turns out that Russian propaganda is quite light compared to hard stuff that Putin has been consuming. He is talking about genocide on Donbass. He is talking about "nazi" government. He, likely, thought that Ukrainian people will see his army as liberators(from democratically elected government, lol).

I think they've counted on the Ukrainian government (especially Zelensky and his closest circle) to give up the fighting and surrender early in the operation. Or have Ukrainian army overthrow him, Putin already suggested they don't need to take commands from this "narc" and "nazi" (btw Zelensky is jewish). It's either their intelligence is that bad (which I don't believe) or Putin just didn't listen, having some delusional picture of the current political and cultural state of Ukraine in his head.

Putin is just a Russian Trump, which is kind of ironic.

They're completely different. Both are evil, but Putin is extremely clever, which makes him a lot more dangerous than Trump. Trump can't do much more aside speaking to people bellies; surely he can amass lots of uneducated angry proud boys around him, but has zero credibility among the high ranks in the military.

Putin lives on a dream about making Russia great again by restoring the previous USSR borders. I'm not really sure he's as clever as you think.

They expected a lot more support from the local populace, it seems.

Russian logistics are built around rail lines, as they are more efficient. Per Russian doctrine you are going to struggle to supply large numbers of forces beyond 50 miles from a railway line. You need to understand just how much stuff a modern army needs. Estimates from WW2 calculated that for every soldier in theatre they needed over 4 tons of material a month (that's ammo, food, medical supplies, replacement parts for vehicles and equipment, fuel, etc). And those numbers are likely higher in the modern era, with heavier and more powerful vehicles, increased usage of electronics, and munitions like missiles. A US armored division (on the order of 270 tanks and a similar number of other vehicles) on the move would consume 500,000 gallons of fuel per day.

Adding more trucks can even make the issues worse, since they need their own fuel, spare parts, maintanence staff, drivers, military police to provide security, etc. You basically have to use the rocket equation when accounting for logistics

Imagine we as humanity dedicated that kind of enthusiasm, resources energy and logistics to climate change.

that topic has nothing to do with this topic though?

This is the entire reason for Air Superiority.

Saint Javelin (motto: do a flip then hit) seems to be every bit as effective against Russia's most modern tanks as she is against any other tank.

> So would Relikt-style ERA and soft-kill infrared defenses work against the Javelin? There’s simply no way to know for sure, unless Moscow were suddenly to invite Washington to test its anti-tank missiles against its best tanks in a friendly competition. But given that relations are too frosty for the United States to participate in Russia’s annual tank biathlon, don’t count on that happening.

Guess now we know.

> do a flip then hit

What does this mean??

I’ve been seeing some neat icons of Ss Javelin and NLAW making the rounds. Good stuff.

The clever thing about the Javelin is that it doesn't fly at a tank, but climbs vertically and comes down from above, hitting the top. So it does a flip before hitting.

The funny thing about the Javelin is that launching it looks like a dud - the first stage is basically an elaborate unboxing.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jIlROqW0fnc

Reply on news.ycombinator.com