Mark Zuckerberg on the Lex Fridman Podcast [video]
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Having not had an opportunity to hear Mark Zuckerberg speak in a (fairly) candid manner before now, I appreciate Lex's effort to get this out there.
1 - Zuck really, really is all in on the metaverse thing. I was never sure if it was his idea, or he sees a trend, etc, but now I'm convinced it's all his idea. I find it odd but interesting someone with essentially unlimited real life resources seeks such escape.
1.5 - I think he also overestimates its success. He pretty much sees everyone using it for work, gaming, friend interactions, etc. I just can't see it being so ubiquitous. Also saying people will spend as much on virtual clothes as real clothes feels offbase, but maybe I'm wrong.
2 - I was a little frustrated because he seemed so... unemotional. Being asked about bullying, suicides... most things that would make people stop, think, or even choke up...Zuck just started into his spiels never really answering the questions well. Unsure if it's perhaps just because he's been asked so many times he has it loaded. Seems very inauthentic.
3 - The negative sum thing was interesting. He basically said any choice they make lowers people's opinions on FB, because the side that agrees just thinks 'about time' or 'at least they didn't screw this one up', whereas the side that disagrees gets angry. May sound basic to some, but I never really considered it before.
4 - It was nice to see Zuck -finally- show emotion toward the end, talking about family time and death. A side of him I don't think many people have ever seen. For the first time, he actually looked pensive and even perhaps distraught before answering. Though I did kinda laugh when he said it's weird he used to care about his company most before he had a family, but now it's probably his family. Something so obvious being presented as an aha moment felt...weird.
“There's no chance that the iPhone is going to get any significant market share. No chance.” - Steve Ballmer 2007 [1]
[1] https://arstechnica.com/information-technology/2007/04/ballm...
Regardless, there’s many examples of people throughout history finding no value in seemingly pointless technologies only to be proven wrong so I believe the point the quote still stands. I suppose I could always just link to the infamous Dropbox post here instead…
As someone who was in the industry at the time, I think you're looking with hindsight goggles on.
In the initial age of smartphones we had Blackberries (email/productivity devices) for business people, then a hodge podge of HTC Windows devices, the Hiptop, etc. There was no obvious path to ubiquity, and they were made for business men or teenagers.
Nothing at that stage indicated either the likelihood of every person in a western country carrying one, common services and businesses switching exclusively to them, the massive quantities of time spent on them or them becoming our primary computing devives.
Fast forwarding 15 years - yes, the value proposition is obvious. However it seems we're in a similar situation with a hand wavey "VR is just for gamers". Time will tell.
https://win.gg/news/how-much-does-the-drow-ranger-arcana-rea...
Oh, and most of the additional battlepass rewards are just temporary.
[0] https://liquipedia.net/starcraft2/IEM_Katowice/2022#Playoffs...
The difference is accessibility and optionality in the digital world.
I could absolutely see people spend more on digital goods than physical goods.
It's not just zuck. Microsoft, google, apple, etc are all focused on it. Nadella and others have called it the next internet. So the entire tech industry is betting big on it. Microsoft just spend billions of Activision in preparation for the metaverse.
https://accelerationeconomy.com/cloud/satya-nadella-the-meta...
And it's not all his idea. A company the size of facebook doesn't work that way. He has final say, but he has a team working for him. And as I stated, it's an industry-wide thing. Not just a facebook or zuckerburg thing. Whether it amounts to much, we'll just have to wait and see. But my money is on zuckerburg, nadella, cook, etc.
> 1.5 - I think he also overestimates its success. He pretty much sees everyone using it for work, gaming, friend interactions, etc. I just can't see it being so ubiquitous.
People said the same thing about social media and smartphones.
> 2 - I was a little frustrated because he seemed so... unemotional. Being asked about bullying, suicides... most things that would make people stop, think, or even choke up...
No it wouldn't. People are able to talk about things without getting emotional. It's the basis of all rational debate/discourse. Are you right now crying uncontrollably because we are talking about bullying, suicides, etc? Of course not. The only reason he'd do it is if his PR team said fake tears work well on the braindead public. It's why so many in media ( from Rachel Maddow to Stephen Colbert ) were crying on-air. An easy way to manipulated the masses that waste their lives watching them.
Well, no.
But if I had created a product and learned it was being used to torment children until they killed themselves, then yes, I absolutely would feel gutted and likely cry. Perhaps I'm too empathetic to be a CEO, which is fitting I guess - I'll never be one.
Using that logic, everyone who created anything would be crying all day. Is it just facebook that's the problem? What about smartphones? What about the creators of Netscape? What about tim berners-lee. Facebook is a product used by billions of people. What do you want? Is it just facebook or the internet?
> Perhaps I'm too empathetic to be a CEO, which is fitting I guess - I'll never be one.
For how empathetic you are, you don't seem to feel any empathy for zuckerburg.
I think VR is a healthy activity, in small doses. I can get up from my desk feeling tired, and 5 minutes playing ping pong against a robot is refreshing, similar in effect to walking outside for 5 minutes.
I think using VR as a productivity tool for such as software development, shared white-boarding, etc. is a long way off.
I'd much rather have standalone games of high quality, and hardware capable enough for good desktop computing use cases as an alternative to a monitor.
- Will there be a balance of open source self hosted VR/AR solutions or will Meta dominate all of this? Along that line do any of the hardware developers provide unrestricted open source SDK's that are easy for developers to integrate into their software?
- Will everyone have to be tied into Meta and tracked around everything they do and Meta tracking everything that everyone looks at with transcripts of every conversation everyone has?
- How will companies incentivize all people to adopt this? Will this be dominated by introverts? Will I see the same variety of personality types in VR that I see in real life? I ask because VRChat is dominated by a specific sub-set of personality types or at least that was my experience.
XR will soon not only include eye tracking, but full brain computer interfaces with very rich data on how you are reacting to stimuli. [2]
If you think only gamers will strap a box to their head, XR includes augmented reality such as more socially acceptable lightweight glasses. Facebook is working with Ray Ban sunglasses to avoid the Google Glass social rejection factor.
Another Facebook / Cambridge Analytica level manipulation of population could be so much more effective and wide spread. It will be very hard for us to detect how our decisions are being influenced. Wild stuff!
[1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jrdqp8zHdAU
[2] https://www.roadtovr.com/valve-brain-computer-interfaces-vr-...
VR and AR will have eye tracking in the next generation of headsets. However at the moment unless its trained to your eyes, its pretty inaccurate >5degrees off.
Brain computer interfaces, are a way off. Yes there are ecg style hairnets, but we've not managed to generalise that yet. (we know this because Musk has confidently predicted a timeline for his BCI endeavour.)
But that isn't the major risk here.
We know that glasses need to be light, and not look stupid. This means that we need to optimise to the point of insanity how we manage power. This basically means that its impossible to jump out to the cloud and have battery life. The power budget for an all day wearable is something like 2.5wh
So the risk of facebook listening in to all things is pretty small. especially given that they really don't have the compute capacity to manage it.
This leads me to my point, AR will be local only for most things. but it will have things like build in "friend/object finder" and precise always on mm accurate location services. (its the only way to make AR content workable)
The privacy problem comes in when people start to realise that they can make apps for these glasses that access the camera, A network of cameras that have ultra precise global pose (that is lat, lon, height and roll pitch and yaw of the camera) with inbuilt face detection, you'll have a pretty great stalking network.
Now, so far so logical. Where it gets fun is here, if we allow open source, unrestricted access to hardware, it means that people can build and distribute these apps with little friction. Our present society cannot handle this.
I do don't know what the answer is. AR has great potential for helping people. But I suspect its going to be a total shitshow.
Do I think it'll be a shitshow because Facebook make it? no, I think Facebook will have to make the _most_ secure/privacy respecting system and prove it just to be taken seriously. Its the Apple/startup version I worry about. AR and privacy don't really mix. Butu we are going to kid ourselves that this isnt true for many years.
Valve and OpenBCI have working Index headsets with EEG and bio-feedback data. Reasonable use cases are fine-tuning game play based on the players stress and enjoyment of different experiences. Today you can buy widget [1] that allow you to control objects in VR (if that game has used the SDK) with your mind my focusing attention on them [2].
Cambridge Analytica used just content and click data! (to build the most accurate map of various countries voting populations and identify key cultural fissures to exploit)
I feel you about VRChat I felt the same (felt old/out of place). Recently tried Zenith bunch of kids. Nothing wrong with that but yeah.
I personally am avoiding meta because I hate that locked in, it's why I'm trying to get into Linux phones over Android (problems with privacy/built in bloat/adware).
As far as an environment for VR like the meta verse, my opinion I think it's a niche right now, guess depends who's around you/your circles. Maybe it's not as rare. Maybe in the future everyone will have a headset like everyone has a phone.
I'm not super against FB though, I found my family (separated long time ago) through their platform so I am grateful for that.
Russia was a super power with some of the best engineers in the world. Today it needs to use war to keep another Slav country on its side. Even the UK keeps the commonwealth in place even with very diverse countries that used to be forced colonies.
To not have a conscience does not make you intelligent. Russia should be economically and socially way more developed that it currently is. To sell gas is not high tech.
Here's Mark when he was 21 giving a lecture at Harvard's CS50: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xFFs9UgOAlE
"They 'trust me'. Dumb fucks" in the context of his age, just sounds like a young adult trying to be edgy in an online chat.
How so? I stopped listening to his podcasts because he often does not listen very closely and completely misjudges what a guest says.
Don't get me wrong here: I am a huge Rogan fan. And some Fridman guests would, IMO, be great with Rogan as well (Zuck, for example). But a lot of Fridman's guests are into some pretty deep, esoteric, technical domains that I don't think would fit with Rogan, unless he has a lot of technical knowledge/background of which I am unaware.
Sure, and that's why I said I think Zuck would be a good guest for Rogan. What I'm objecting to is the idea that the entirety of Fridman's guest list would be better interviewed by Rogan. Some, perhaps. All? I am very skeptical of that position. That's all I'm saying.
Thats is a bit of a problem though. When Zuck was asked what should be done he easily threw it back at Lex to answer. Lex went onto a meandering non-committal path trying to work out how to not offend and sound smart. Lex is too easy to manipulate.
Lex's main weakness is that he wants Love and is unwilling to prioritize Truth. He is agreeable and young.
I am worried that he'll get his interview with Putin.
I think Lex is a fine interviewer considering his background, and short time podcasting. Can you provide examples of him being a terrible interviewer?
And as others have said he has pet theories or opinions he always has to throw out there and almost never gets a response on. insert rant about aliens - yeah I guess that’s possible(?)
However if you think of it as getting to listen to two friends just chatting or having a beer, it can make for interesting content. Shift your mindset and it might be more enjoyable.
I did enjoy both, but mostly because Wolfram did most of the talking. Even with Lex's less-targeted/knowledgeable questions, Wolfram knew how to steer the answer to what he thought the actual question should have been.
Lex was very interested in the universal substrate rewrite analogy to a turing machine and all of the implications of that, while Sean kind of glossed over that.
Carrol seems to be the overall more educated of the two, but at the same time has a more sophomoric understanding of the theory of computation.
Come to think of it, overall it seems to be a weak spot amongst well known physicists, Wolfram excepted.
If knowledge is a barrier, then give me Sean Carroll with this guest list.
Another podcast talker with a bad case of unwarranted self-importance is Sam Harris, sometimes he takes his head out of his ass but only for short periods.
Rogan started off bad, but he became an excellent interviewer up until the last 2 years or so. I listened to a few podcasts of his from pre-2020 recently, and there's a clear difference in quality.
Rogan has annoying quirks, favorite anecdotes, and tangents, but as you said, his core interviewing skills are top-notch. Lex has always been robotic and socially awkward; forcing new questions or topic jumps just as the guest gets into an interesting flow.
I understand he was some kind of MIT whizkid, but I don't know much about him beyond that.
Source: went to school with him.
The goal of a post doc is to continue to do research work where you're the first position on publications to pad your CV to the point where it looks impressive enough when you're out giving job talks for tenure track positions.
If you have a very strong PhD thesis, produced a lot of good work during your PhD and made enough connections, you can skip that step.
It's almost as if he was there just long enough to associate his name with the school as an ends to impress dumb people.
he's had his name on publications over the past few years while still doing the podcast
Getting out of purgatory was also competitive.
https://www.youtube.com/c/lexfridman/videos?view=0&sort=da&f...
I’m not sure if he’s extremely naive or completely delusional.
The middlemen have to be clueless. That's just how it works.
It felt enlightening: here's a concealed underlying pattern that I have now unconcealed for you.
Then after that, and after starting his own podcast, and after coming out with his own Theory of Everything ("Geometric Unity"), things shifted: Eric refused to publish a paper or proofs that could be scrutinized, what he did publish was labeled by professionals as "not even wrong" (i.e. not cogent enough to dispute), he insisted he taught himself guitar during lockdown (when he had been playing for years before), etc.
It felt like two different versions of someone: one you could trust was forthright (whether right or wrong about something), and another who would say things he knows aren't true out of ego/vanity or... out of something? But something to benefit Eric, not something to benefit the audience.
This felt like a shift to me.
But then again they are brothers, and Eric was/is angry about the way he perceives Bret to have been mistreated by Academia. During the episode he encourages Bret to be as outwardly angry and to agree with Eric's conclusions about these systems of control that mistreated Bret.
https://tomdehnel.com/what-is-russell-conjugation/
> Russel used the following examples to describe the phenomenon:
> • I am firm, you are obstinate, he is a pig-headed fool.
> • I am righteously indignant, you are annoyed, he is making a fuss over nothing.
> • I have reconsidered the matter, you have changed your mind, he has gone back on his word.
> Russell Conjugations don’t always have to follow the “I, you, they” formula either. In fact, you’re more likely to encounter them in more subtle ways:
> • A politician you support reconsidered the matter in light of new evidence, but the politician you don’t support flip-flopped.
> • You negotiated boldly, but your coworker wasn’t being a team player.
> • Your own child is self-assured, but the neighbor’s son is a brat.
I don't want to hear him tell jokes or try to be a comedian.
I just listened to the Zuckerberg interview. It got so much better in the last third when both of them seemed more relaxed. Too bad they didn’t break through to something more like friendship earlier. I have never seen Zuckerberg look so relaxed as in the last 20 minutes.
Sometimes it works well (e.g. the Jim Keller eps), often not. I have a feeling this will be one of those times where it doesn't work.
Mix that with him being popular, well connected, and generally well respected, I can see why big names in tech would be eager to go on his podcast
BTW I believe Joe Rogan popularized this format (with some influence from Howard Stern and others, yes Howard Stern changed). For example, Rogan's interview with Snowden is quite good. He just lets him talk for 3 hours. Where else is Snowden going to get that? (in addition to the big audience, the format is a draw)
(Joe Rogan has been controversial recently, but consider the asymmetry of him considering a subject publicly for 3 hours, while his attackers are posting 30 second clips on Twitter. Not saying he's right or wrong about anything, just that there's a huge asymmetry, and that people who are genuine and have decent attention spans should notice.)
There are of course the more basic reasons like having a book to promote, and the fact that Lex tends not challenge them on controversial issues.
Also, many of the guests have watched 3 hour interviews by others, and probably learned something, and want to do the same. There's definitely a viral / network effect to booking guests.
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I really liked this interview by a farmer, chef, and CEO of meat raised holistically:
Anya Fernald: Regenerative Farming and the Art of Cooking Meat https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ew8U43IXTfk
It's very technical and practical. And I think it shows he is spreading interesting ideas independent of whether the person is well known. So the well known people who have ideas are attracted to that.
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Actually this reminds me that I remember there was a good podcast by a guy in Silicon Valley who was just getting started, and had a pretty strong Indian accent? Nevertheless he was genuine and James Gosling and several other well known folks went on. Does anyone know what I'm talking about? It was probably 2-3 years ago. I'd like to find that podcast again. As far as I remember it was mostly on a website.
That’s the killer app for me - a platform that all my friends use so we can have spontaneous casual hang outs!
Then to solve adoption, let's make it a website so people can visit it without installing anything!
And maybe if it could be spearheaded by a large company like Google, that'd be even better!
Personally I'd love a service where I could drop in and out of one of these "Google Hangouts" throughout the day, maybe even made accessible by removing the complexity of VR, seeing my friends' cameras would be good enough for me :)
I know it’s bad form to reply to snark with snark but I can’t help myself. If there was no market for this in the age of video chat - why do people still fly anywhere? Why am I excited when my friends come to town?
There needs to be a reason to hang out. Maybe I’m playing a game or watching sports front row or working on my golf swing in VR, then I see a friend come online and voila we link up!
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Mark: I mean, well, how would you handle this if you were in my position?
Lex: It's very, very, very, very difficult. I would more speak about how difficult the choices are and be transparent about what the hell do you do with this? Ask the exact question you just asked me, but to the broader public. Like okay, yeah, you guys tell me what to do. So crowdsource it.
And then the other aspect is when you spoke really eloquently about the fact that there's this going back and forth, and now there's a feeling like you're censoring a little bit too much. I would try to be ahead of that feeling. I would now lean towards freedom of speech and say "we are not the ones that are going to define misinformation." Let it be a public debate.
Let the ideas stand. And I actually place the responsibility on the poor communication skills of scientists. They should be in the battlefield of ideas, and everybody who is spreading information against the vaccine - they should not be censored. They should be talked with, and you should show the data. You should have open discussion, as opposed to rolling your eyes and saying "I'm the expert. I know what I'm talking about." No, you need to convince people. It's a battle of ideas. So that's the whole point of freedom of speech. It's the way to defeat ideas - is with good ideas, with speech.
So the responsibility here falls on the poor communication skills of scientists. Thanks to social media (scientists are not communicators), they have the power to communicate. Some of the best stuff I've seen about COVID from doctors is on social media. It's a way to learn, to respond really quickly, to go faster than the peer review process. And so they just need to get way better at that communication. And also by better, I don't mean just convincing. I also mean speak with humility. Don't talk down to people. All those kinds of things.
And as a platform, I would step back a little bit, not all the way of course, because there's a lot of stuff that can cause real harm as we talked about, but you lean more towards freedom speech, because then people - from a brand perspective - wouldn't be blaming you for the other ills of society, which there are many. The institutions have flaws. The political divide, obviously - politicians have flaws, that's news. The media has flaws that they're all trying to work with. And because of the central place of Facebook in the world, all of those flaws somehow kind of propagate to Facebook, and you're sitting there, as Plato the philosopher, have to answer to some of the most difficult questions being asked of human civilization.
So I don't know, maybe this is an American answer though, to lean towards freedom of speech.
Zelensky seems more likely.
He also didn't condemn the invasion, just basically said that "war is bad", as if both sides are equally to blame.
I think that is a distortion of Lex's opinions.
I think there would be a lot of value in the world seeing him interview Putin. Not because of admiration, but because of what that interview could teach us about human nature.
If you’re watching in a web browser you can always open an inspector and add a css rule to the video player “filter: blur(2px)” but I feel like that’s not what you’re asking :)