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Comment by nemothekid | Hacker News Reader

>What’s more important, protecting Ukraine, Taiwan and anywhere else under threat, or slowing down the erosion of something already being eroded. Lives matter, swift will do just fine without Russia.

I might be completely clueless, but Ukraine doesn't have anywhere near the same amount of strategic or economic importance that Taiwan does. As I understand it, what should have been done was for NATO to promise to not add Ukraine and keep it as a neutral zone between Russia and the US. Adding Ukraine to NATO was effectively putting US troops on Russia's doorstep and I can see why that makes Russia nervous. It seems pretty clear that Ukraine wasn't going to get NATO membership anyways.

I don't know if the promise would have given Putin the gall to invade, but the way I see it being ambiguous about it didn't help at all.

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This is valuable reading, from a military historian frequently posted on HN:

https://acoup.blog/2022/02/25/miscellanea-understanding-the-...

Here's one of the many good bits:

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Instead, the clearest understanding of Putin’s complaints about NATO is that they are reflections of his real fears, but that as diplomatic negotiating tools, they were red herrings, designed to create exactly the sort of smokescreen that some media personalities worked to create and exploit domestically. The ‘tell’ here in many ways were the initial demands, which amounted to rolling back NATO positions to pre-1997 status; such demands would be utterly unacceptable to NATO countries (like Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia and Poland) who would thus be left outside NATO’s line of protection. Putin – and the Russian Foreign Ministry – knew those demands were obvious non-starters, that’s why they made them – presumably to generate that smokescreen and to try to divide NATO internally. But the demands themselves were never serious, as Putin’s actions this week prove.

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The "promise Ukraine won't join NATO" demand was not made in good faith and conceding it would not have mattered.

This is a very good and thorough article. The truth is I am clueless - it seems the writing was on the wall for a very long time for anyone who was paying attention

I call bull.

Evidence for “the initial demands, which amounted to rolling back NATO positions to pre-1997 status;”

We already have American troops on Russia's doorstep in Alaska, is it really about proximity to Moscow? Does that even matter these days?

I’ve reflected on this argument recently but I struggle to see the real logic behind it. Putin claims he wants Ukraine as a neutral zone between russia and NATO. He then proceeds to invade Ukraine … if successful, territory under his control (whether explicitly shown or not, he could instil a puppet government) will now border NATO countries. How does that provide him with any security ?

Russian Federation I guess will guarantee the security of Donetsk and Luhansk and liberate further Russian-speaking areas.

Proximity to the Russia heartland presumably. Flight time of missiles to key military positions within Russia.

I'm no military strategist but how is this not obvious?

It's not about a neutral zone, it's about a buffer zone between more sensitive areas and where NATO can place troops, tanks, and missile systems. I mean a sea separates Alaska from north-east Russia and those places are deep into permafrost territory and then there's the entirety of Western and Central Russia between Moscow (say) and there. Russia is huge. 90% of the Russian population live in the 10% of Russia that is considered part of the European continent.

It's like nobody bothers to study geography or geopolitics before they open their mouth these days.

There are multiple NATO countries that already border Russia. If Putin takes Ukraine it will nearly double the amount of NATO countries that will border Russia.

Sure, but it makes it harder for an invasion force to reach Moscow or the industrial heart of Russia.

Nobody in NATO or the world period is invading Russia - cmon now

Putin really ran with FUD on this one

That is true now, but what about 23 years from now (23 years being how long it was between the defeat of Germany in WWI and the Germany's invasion of Russian lands)?

Putin thinks Russia's military strength will decline relative to the US, which is why he is widening Russia's buffer to invasion now even though it will probably be many years before it is needed.

This. Putin is just looking for excuses for why he wants to take Ukraine.

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