It's like Russia was expecting to be able to conduct the largest aggressive conventional military operation in Europe since WW2 and not completely flip the apple cart of the global order.
But I agree with your skepticism, the world has unfortunately seen plenty of larger wars, mainly we've just had a short peaceful spell lately, and it's an unpleasant shock to stumble into another.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soviet%E2%80%93Afghan_War https://www.militarytimes.com/news/your-military/2016/07/06/...
presumably they've committed that or more than that to this operation since the navies are involved and it's easier logistically to get to
https://www.cnn.com/interactive/2014/03/world/infographic-uk...
Afghanistan peak US troops: 102,000 (2011)
Gulf war peak US troops: 700,000 (1990-1991)
Iraq peak US troops: range from 168,000 - 192,000 (2007)
Vietnam peak US troops: 543,000 (1969)
Korea peak US troops: 320,000, unclear what year
edit: obviously, Russia's involvement in Ukraine over the last few days would be by far the biggest operation in Europe since WW2. Just not globally (by a long shot).
I was too young to really get the scale of the first gulf war. Just transporting 700,000 troops seems astounding, let alone keeping them equipped in enemy territory.
TLDR; they're fucking with our collective heads.
Similarly, assets belonging to Putin and his supporters will have been well hidden before this kicked off.
I agree though, the one positive light is the protests and people putting their lives on the line to come out against the invasion.
What would have shown some balls would have been turning off Nord Steam 1. Germans do own woolly sweaters to wear if it's cold in their homes, and Germany does have forests to use for firewood for at least one winter.
I am following the conflict very closely (due to having many friends and relatives on both sides). While there are some videos with what looks like Russian soldiers (some of whom look no older than 18-19, so they're definitely conscripts), I wouldn't say there have been very many of them, and what would you say in a similar situation? "Yes, I was happy to come along to free your country from the 'nazis'", and risk to be taken around the building and shot as you "attempted to escape"?
To be clear, I am 100% behind Ukraine.
I don't think it takes many to cause domestic issues. Generally captured American soldiers, who aren't conscripts, hold the line. There are noteworthy exceptions like John Walker Lindh which caused a lot of controversy domestically. It's worth noting that seeing lots of dead conscript soldiers coming home in coffins helped bring an end to the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan, and there's a serious quagmire risk here for Russia.
> To be clear, I am 100% behind Ukraine.
Same.
If their families and friends get to see them, and if they're actually genuine. As for the first, it's doubtful, given the Russian state media censorship; as for the second, the Russians are of course going to claim that they're all fake, Ukrainian stooges pretending to be Russian soldiers.
And, unfortunately, maybe they -- or at least some of them -- are. Wouldn't you be tempted to try that, if you were forced to fight your war largely on social and mass media, like the Ukrainians are? I think I would. (What speaks against it is the risk of it backfiring, if it's found out. So maybe I wouldn't try it; I don't know.)
Russian economy maybe be ruined for next decade or longer and most likely Putin will be dead or retired by then but he would be looked in Russia as the guy who keep Russia relevant.
Putin is embarrassing US and NATO by destroying Ukraine while they watch helplessly. I have utmost sympathy for Ukraine but where were the angry people when US attacked Iraq?
There were massive protests. I was at one in San Francisco.
At some point other Russians in power will realize that Putin is the cause of their troubles, that's one of the better roads to an acceptable outcome here.
In many cases, calling for George W. Bush and much of the military and diplomatic leadership of the US to be punished for the crime of aggression (initially) and war crimes (based on the conduct of the illegal-from-the-start war).
It seems like things are going completely opposite of the way you describe them.
To address your other point, victory for Putin here is swift regime change in Ukraine, nothing else will serve.
He may have overreached and if he has he will bleed Russia dry within months and be overthrown. Let’s hope so as he is a despicable person and a tyrannical curse on his country.
"On February 15, millions of people protested, in approximately 800 cities around the world. Listed by the 2004 Guinness Book of Records as the largest protest in human history". There is a whole page on all the protest for that particular topic: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Protests_against_the_Iraq_War