Russia threatens 'serious military repurcussions' if Finland joins NATO | Hacker News Reader

Russia threatens 'serious military repurcussions' if Finland joins NATO

uk.news.yahoo.com

31 pointsintunderflow18 comments

That... seems like a mistake.

The West appears willing to let Ukraine go. They don't like it, but having gotten themselves exhausted by recent wars (especially the US), they seem to be willing to consider it not-their-problem.

But Finland and Sweden are decidedly aligned with the West, and not only would they not tolerate threats to them, but that re-casts what the situation in Ukraine means. The West might be willing to choke down what could be seen as appeasement, but they need to be able to believe that it's not going to be immediately followed by more. If they're going to be forced to fight, they'd rather do it earlier rather than later.

It's entirely possible that I'm wrong; I'm far from an expert and even the experts seem unclear. But this statement strikes me as extremely dangerous, even in an already tense situation.

Russia is the product of European Cowardice.

Finland needs to prepare for War, If anyone thinks Russia is going to stop at Ukraine, you're terribly wrong.

All of Europe needs to prepare for war. It's not just going to hit Finland.

Sadly you're correct, unfortunately too many European countries are run by people who have a personal vested interest in Russia. It's alarming how many German (ex)politicians have business relations and this isn't just confined to Germany. The German response to Russia is laughable, we are not going to certify a pipeline that was not certified and lets shut down more reactors so we can become more dependent on Russian gas which makes us politicians who work for Gazprom and other Russian companies richer. Don't think I am not including the USA, Wall St is sweating bullets hoping this all goes away so they can get back to licking Russia's balls.

It's easy to spot which governments are in Russia's pocket. They don't even try to hide it. Today the world can openly see who stands with freedom/Ukraine and who is in Russia's pocket.

I don't think Russia is going to stop at Ukraine, but things get much more difficult for them after that. Ukraine is a war they can win, but only if nobody else cares too much.

Finland is not. A war on Finland really is an all-out war, and he will not win that.

I'm not so sure on that. We didn't offer Ukraine entrance to NATO because we were already appeasing Putin, and Putin wants buffer states.

People aren't going to leave NATO... Unless their faith in the mitual defense pact is shaken. Honestly, I don't see this stopping. I see plenty of different scenarios arising out of different levels of commitment to in-theater action.

I have this horrible feeling that it'll be war. A-bloody-gain. And possibly a two-fronter.

The difference, I think, is that Ukraine wanted NATO to defend them, but NATO wasn't sold on the idea. Ukraine isn't culturally aligned with the rest of Europe; they might like to be but they have a long way to go.

Finland and Sweden never asked to be in NATO, largely because they assumed that it would never be required. They are culturally aligned with Europe, but figured they could avoid conflicts without having to commit themselves. This might change their minds.

If Putin doesn't take that for an answer, it will indeed be war, and a much, much worse one.

> That... seems like a mistake.

It's not a “mistake”, it's the central point. Ukraine is leverage, not the end goal. The end goal is a vast Russian-dominated sphere of influence covering all of Europe in proximity to the borders of Russia (even as Putin also expands those borders.)

I mean, yes, the whole strategy leads nowhere but disaster, with only the scope and timescale on dsipute, but this isn't like something that started aimed at a manageable little imperial conquest and then lost focus and got carried away in error; the broader goal has been telegraphed in Putin’s demands and speeches.

It's interesting that even though the truth is out there and has been out there for quite a while that some of these coins just won't drop.

I think the reality, even despite being fairly openly announced, is so far out of many people’s mental model of the relevant conflicts in the modern world that it gets instinctively rationalized into something that seems more reasonable.

Yes, that's exactly it. I see this around me: 'no, but they said they would not invade' -> they invade. 'they will just take the east' -> they advance direction Kiev. Currently we are at 'they will just take Kiev and then negotiate'.

Still in the wings

- they take all of Ukraine

- they install a puppet government

- insurgency will take a couple of years, anybody's guess how it will turn out

- and then there are too many forks to list here, but not a single one of those ends well other than the one where Putin is deposed and sent to the Hague for trial, which I give about 0% chance of happening. The rest goes from 'just bad' to 'extremely bad'.

Whether we realize it or not: today Ukraine is fighting for the rest of Europe and possibly the world as we know it, this is an avalanche now and when and where it will stop is anybody's guess.

2019, from the former President of Georgia:

>Russia’s Next Land Grab Won’t Be in an Ex-Soviet State. It Will Be in Europe. First he came for Georgia, then for Ukraine. Vladimir Putin’s next target is likely to be a non-NATO nation in the EU.

https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/03/15/russias-next-land-grab-...

>I do not expect Russian tanks to roll into Helsinki or Stockholm unopposed. But it would be relatively simple for Moscow to execute a land grab in a remote Arctic enclave or on a small island, like Sweden’s Gotland, considering the strategic capabilities Russia has built on its northern flank. After all, who would go to war over a frozen Baltic island or piece of Finland’s tundra? NATO wouldn’t, but Putin would—because the stakes are higher for him.

Russia can feel free to get lost. They do not have the right to tell everyone else what to do.

And this is so counterproductive. Does Russia think that this is going to make Finland more likely to cooperate with Russia?

But NATO and Finland had better pay some attention. Last time, Russia meant it enough to invade. (Of course, Russia invaded anyway, even though Ukraine hadn't joined NATO, and wasn't on the brink of doing so. They just were insufficiently willing to stay in Russia's orbit. So Finland is warned that they are likely next, no matter what they do.)

But Russia had also better think carefully. They are free to impose military repercussions if they choose. They are not free to escape the repercussions of the repercussions.

NATO will not come to Sweden's or Finland's aid. I am willing to wager. Europe will hold discussions and issue strongly worded announcements with their displeasure while Putin rains missiles down on Helsinki.

Ukraine is defending all of Europe at this moment. Pray for her.

Isn't this yet another nuke-war threat?

Because he was the one who brought it to the table, clearly stating that Russia has no chance against NATO, but they have nukes and no one will win...

But if he keeps this campaign, he is indeed winning by using nukes, without using them. So we will have to sit and watch him? Until Russia is broke or extremely crippled from economic sanctions and then what?

This is all playing out the way both Trump and Biden intended it (you can find speeches to this effect).

The US is tired of playing world police. They spend massive amounts of money and put their own people at risk to attempt to stabilize the world, but when things go wrong they get all the flak for it. Trump said in 2018 that the US spends so much money on NATO to defend against Russia, yet EU countries (like Germany) put money INTO Russia by buying their energy. Similar logic for the withdrawal from Afghanistan, started under the Trump administration and completed under Bidens. They intended to stabilize the region but just ended up looking like fools when they withdrew, because Afghani forces became reliant on the US for defence rather than building up their own.

EU is going to have to take responsibility for their own safety now. Although it will be painful, I think it's the only sensible way forwards. The alternative would be US stepping into a conflict that's not theirs once again, bearing the economic and social cost for it from all sides and furthering the EU addiction to having someone else defend them.

If the shithead crosses the border of Finnland or Poland next, all man should take a weapon and march towards Moscow and kill every Russian -- because than everything Hitler anticipated was sadly right and it's time to bring it to an end.

But what I really hope for is that it somehow ends soon without a major death toll and all Europe, including Russia can prosper.

I'm so angry... so tired and angry. This bloody bastard screwed everybody not interested in war and his Russian nationalism. I wanted to peacefully visit Russia with my children and hoped all that cold war shittery would be over for the next generation...

Putin is a douche.

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