Hacker News Reader

Comment by chewz | Hacker News Reader

Every Russian general is born with the ambition of driving his tanks to the Atlantic Ocean. And that won't be much different from what Tsar Alexander did in 1812/1813 with similiar meager resources.

So yes, Putin probably is considering this scenario at least in his wet dreams...

And it seems like largest country in Europe (by area), with 200 thousand strong army, tons od most sophisticated NATO weapons and 8 years of combat experience have collpased like a house of cards within 24 hours. Do you think Polish or German army will do any better? Or does Russia have better opinion of these armies? So, yes this is possible now... Thereotically...

And history knows larger miscalculations...

View on HN

> And it seems like largest country in Europe (by area), with 200 thousand strong army, tons od most sophisticated NATO weapons

Where did you get this idea?

Ukrain has only a tiny airforce, no modern air defences, and most heavy military hardware, from artillery to tanks, is cold war vintage.

NATO never supplied it with modern fighter jets and missile systems, if it had, Russian helicopters would not be circling Kiev right now.

"Every Russian general is born with the ambition of driving his tanks to the Atlantic Ocean"

This is not helpfull, Russia has the idea that it should be able to do as it pleasesnl in its sphere of influence, but I never met anyone thinking it stretched to include anything past former eastern block borders.

Poland and Germany are full NATO members. NATO was clear they would not deploy to Ukraine and that they will deploy to protect any NATO member.

Ukraine has 200k soldiers. But most of them are grunts with rifles. Russia has all kinds of equipment and combined arms. You can't really compare the two.

certainly no comparison in a conventional war. Ukraine could be as costly to Putin as Afghanistan was to the US.

Ukraine could also be as costly to Putin as Afghanistan was to the USSR.

Afghanistan is called the graveyard of empires for a reason.

It’s a bit of a stretch to claim that Ukraine has collapsed. They’re massively outgunned, yet they’re still standing 24 hours later.

The balance of power is similar to Poland in 1939. I expect it will take approx 2 weeks (1-3) for Putin to force the last regular Ukrainian army unit to lay down their arms, if their leaders don't surrender before that time.

>Every Russian general is born with the ambition of driving his tanks to the Atlantic Ocean.

France may not like that. They're not in NATO. But they have nuclear weapons.

France is in NATO.

France is one of the founding countries in NATO. Indeed, NATO's progenitor was a bilateral treaty between France and the UK (the "Treaty of Dunkirk").

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_NATO

France is a member of NATO, they entered NATO in 1949 • Reference, The NATO website: https://www.nato.int/nato-welcome/index.html

France is part of NATO. They backed out of the integrated command structure in the 60's (but still remained an treaty member) and rejoined in 2009. I think they still reserve the right to not put their nuclear arsenal under allied command.

France is a founding member.

> France may not like that. They're not in NATO.

Yes, they are, and have been since NATO was founded. From 1966-2009 they did not participated in the Integrated Military Command Structure, despite remaining fully in the alliance.

They still don't participate in the Nuclear Planning Council, and their troops are not put under permanent UN command in peacetime.

> their troops are not put under permanent UN command in peacetime.

This should be “NATO command” not “UN command”.

Yeah I see now France is back. I know they were a founding member of NATO I'm not doubting that. But they left in the 1960s...sort of, but were in sort of but separate, then back in for sure in 2009.

Reply on news.ycombinator.com