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It reads to me as different goals. You know those slightly asymmetric board games where different players have different objectives? I think Putin has already amassed effectively infinite money and power, so his new goal is immortality, which I think means establishing a greater legacy by restoring as much of the the Soviet Union's old borders as it can. This is probably not actually in Russia's interests, but the goal isn't "Russia succeeds," it's "Putin remembered as great."

This explanation seems rather plausible to me, but is getting downvotes. What am I not seeing?

Yes. And we probably will.

He wants a warm water port.

Russia has no warm water ports currently ?

I don't believe they have any Western, warm-water ports.

Not sure if GP is serious or joking. Russia's history has been half-jokingly summarised as "the search for a warm-water port."

https://www.jstor.org/stable/44642451

The end game is to receive another puppet-state close to Russia. It's the only target.