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Comment by leto_ii | Hacker News Reader

I just don't think that Putin in 2022 is Hitler in 1939. Russia is a waning power clinging to significance, not an ascending one.

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Germany in 1939 was also a waning power, following the fall of the Weimar republic and subsequently World War I.

> Russia is a waning power clinging to significance, not an ascending one.

I don't believe this, unless you define "significance" as nothing more than having your name in the world newspapers, even if it's for the wrong reasons.

That might not necessarily be the case.

Look at where they sit strategically. The amount of resources they supply to an increasingly resource hungry world. The amount of math and science talent. The possession of advanced nuclear weaponry.

Look at what they are doing militarily right now and how effectively they are doing it.

They are an extremely significant country. This is true no matter how you feel about their government.

The propaganda, both in the west and in the east have made this matter very hard to understand for the average citizen.

Their economy is a little bit larger than the NY state economy.

Right. In terms of dollars. But what makes up the respective economies?

Overpriced healthcare, insurance and banking services might not be as valuable as oil, minerals and manufacturing going forward.

I just feel it's a huge conceptual mistake to underestimate the relative weights of forces.

Italy's GDP is $1.87T. Russia's GDP is $1.48T, down from around $2.3T in 2013.

Russia's economy is dependent on fossil fuels. While the decrease in Europe's use of nuclear power has been a gift to Russia, the future for fossil fuels is not bright and Russia's kleptocratic government has starved the nation of economic innovation.

I don't know what "extremely significant country" means here, but Russia is objectively a country in decline both in terms of economic and cultural power.

In terms of real GDP (PPP), Russia is at $4.3T while Italy is at $2.6T. Russia has the 6th largest GDP by this metric. However, I'm not sure how to think about real GDP vs. nominal GDP when it comes to war.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP)

> amount of resources they supply to an increasingly resource hungry world

But that's the only thing they supply. At least in Europe (I hope) they'll start decoupling from Russian fossil resources asap.

> The amount of math and science talent

Pales in comparison to the US, China or the EU (taken as a block) and possibly even in comparison to the UK or Japan.

> The possession of advanced nuclear weaponry

This insures that MAD still works, but not much more I think.

>But that's the only thing they supply. At least in Europe (I hope) they'll start decoupling from Russian fossil resources asap.

Which is the last thing anyone should want because it will simply deepen ties between Russia and China.

I don't know why they can't just be happy with all those blessings

Hitler in 1939 had economic/industrial parity with at least one, if not two of his primary combatants (France and UK). He then had good reason to believe that other countries either would not engage (USA) or were highly overrated (USSR). He also had allies of significant weight. (1)

Russia in 2022 has a GDP of $1.5T, and NATO has a combined GDP of $42T (2). Even if you make the case that Russia's current economic activity translates more effectively into wartime industry, I don't believe you can possibly make the case that it is 28x more effective.

Germany also had military technology and strategy advantages (see France in 1940) over its (early war) opponents. As good as Russia's "math and science talent" is, I would be shocked if it was even a quarter of the capability that the US alone has.

So no, Putin in 2022 is not comparable to Hitler in 1939.

(1) - http://www.zuljan.info/articles/0302wwiigdp.html. (2) - https://countryeconomy.com/countries/groups/nato

In 1939 there were no atomic weapons.

35% dependant on Europe for energy in GDP.

China is taking Russian engineers and cheap resources. In the meantime, Putin complained that they didn't invest enough back.

Total GDP ain't big either. Military is 6% of their gdp with a lot of older material too ( = maintenance cost)

Very low vaccination rates, means very low trust in the governement.

Russia is doing this because of a weak position. Not from a strong one.

China is giving something to give Russia confidence, but really not much.

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