Comment by buran77 | Hacker News Reader

Comment by buran77 | Hacker News Reader

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Russia is most likely incapable of carrying any sustained conflict as far as Serbia, Bulgaria, or Romania, particularly when the last 2 are NATO members. They can cause disruption in other ways but no effective open conflict.

But Russia doesn't need to fight those countries. They are hundreds of kilometers away from the Russian border. Ukraine on the other hand is hundreds of meters away. Having Ukraine in NATO or in the EU is a threat to Russia and its leadership today. So Russia will look to poison Ukraine for these 2 organizations and make it an unattractive member.

When EU got too close in 2013-2014 Russia responded in exactly the same way. Both the US and Russia have reacted in the same manner when the enemy tried to reach their borders in any way (via Cuba or via Ukraine). So in 2022 pursuing any relationship particularly between NATO and Ukraine could not have had any other result. It is absolutely inconceivable that this was unexpected given the obviousness, so it's a safe assumption that the goal is to keep Russia fighting and draining the little they have left, with Ukraine paying the (biggest) price. "Buffer" countries always do.

Ukraine was already 'poisoned' for NATO, due to the Crimea annexation and the Donetsk and Lugansk separatists. No need for an invasion to poison anything further.

My view is that this is about maintaining a fading colonial empire. Ukraine has been drifting away from Russian influence at least since 2014 and since Russia does not have the economy to re-assert its influence through trade it has to do so by military means.

I have no facts to base it on other than news propaganda, but I think they are too late to re-capture Ukraine and this rather desperate move will only bolster the Ukrainian nationalism. The Russian forces also will not be able to hold the Ukraine well enough to extract any sort of economic benefit from it. 45 million is a lot of people.

It's unlikely that they want to hold on to Ukraine. They have recognized Donetsk and Lugansk and will protect their borders but their stated intent with Ukraine is to "demilitarize" them. If they have any sense they will demolish every military asset they can find and then get out. They will unfortunately probably kill a large number of soldiers and people relevant to their political interests as well. I just hope they can avoid mass civilian casualties.

Putin has stated that he views Ukrainian membership in NATO and the presence of NATO forces on their border as an existential threat to Russia so that is at least the public reason that they are doing this. If we take that at face value then the objective is to destabilize Ukraine to the point where they are ineligible to join NATO for a long time. That doesn't bode well for the Ukrainian people.

Why would they get out and let Ukrainians to recover and then continue active military opposition? It takes so much effort and money to even get in. Invasion shows commitment, Russians are going to stay just like Warsaw pact did in Czechoslovakia after 1968. They will attempt to install new puppet government and start draining out Ukraine's economic output.

> They have recognized Donetsk and Lugansk and will protect their borders but their stated intent with Ukraine

Any intent with Donetsk and Lugansk -- such as "protecting their borders"; which "borders", the ones with Ukraine? -- is an intent with Ukraine. Donetsk and Lugansk are "countries" only in the eyes of Russia and Belarus; in the world the rest of us live in, they're parts of Ukraine. (Like Crimea.)

> Putin has stated that he views Ukrainian membership in NATO and the presence of NATO forces on their border as an existential threat to Russia so that is at least the public reason that they are doing this. If we take that at face value...

Here's a better idea: Let's not.

This is Putin‘s excuse but it’s so damned tragic. NATO and the EU have precisely zero interest in preemptively invading Russia and haven’t since 1991, as he well knows—in fact he’s counting on it. All of Russia’s “security” issues are of his own making. This is about fulfilling a dream of reclaiming lost greatness.

> have precisely zero interest in preemptively invading

And yet no single (super)power in the world would accept this assurance and allow adversaries to take positions at their borders. The US didn't allow Russian missiles in Cuba, and most definitely wouldn't allow China to set up base there today despite any assurances that China would never preemptively invade the US.

There may be many reasons behind this war that we'll never know but the one you don't have to guess. It's been tested and proven accurate over our entire history.

Small countries fear invasion. Superpowers know that they're too large to be outright invaded, but are much more concerned that somebody's nukes (or whatever missiles) can reach their capital before their anti-missiles gadgets can intercept them. It's like having a gun to your head. When you attempt to point a gun to a mafia boss' head, they will remove the gun and neutralize you.

How does that play out for the Balkan states on the border and in NATO?

This is a setup to keep Russia fighting indefinitely in a war of attrition?

This seems a leap, or am I misunderstanding your comment?

This seemed far fetched to me, but I am starting to think this is the only rational strategy behind Western actions... poor Ukrainians, they did not deserve this.

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