EU unlikely to cut Russia off SWIFT for now, sources say | Hacker News Reader

EU unlikely to cut Russia off SWIFT for now, sources say

reuters.com

38 pointsmm32120 comments

Instead EU will give some stern warnings.

And of course, they will also not block oligarchs and their families from going to EU, buying property there and using their banks.

If Russia is such a great country, why do all oligarchs children live and study in the West? Oh, because "we can't punish children for their parents sins". As if forbidding them to enter EU is "against human rights". Putin and the oligarchs are laughing on the floor now.

Indeed, this whole scenario goes to show how toothless the EU actually is. The German govt especially has not come out of this well at all.

that would have been a very effective measure, but they don't want to take this step. And some crazy dictator is getting away with everything, just like in 1938...

from the linked article: "Other EU member states are reluctant to make such a move because, while it would hit Russian banks hard, it would make it tough for European creditors to get their money back"

The irony is if we want to make war between NATO and Russia unlikely, the non-military responses to Russia need to be dramatic. I'm concerned NATO nations will bungle this. Seize oligarchic holdings. Shutdown Nord Stream 2. Make Russia a pariah state. This cannot go unpunished.

I don't know. Part of the problem is the existing sanctions causing pressure on Putin. So he diverts attention by sabre ratteling, starting a war.

One way to solve this would be to give Putin a honorable way out. He might give up if the status of Ukraine is officially accorded as non NATO. Give him on paper what was promised in words in the 90s.

Interesting take on sanctions and how they might not target the right people.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/feb/23/obsess...

Is there consensus that the sanctions, as the west uses them, are having a positive effect?

I don't believe there is a consensus with regards to net positive effect from what I've read, but like Fed interest policy, it is a blunt tool yet one of the few tools one has to influence.

Instead of sanctions, I think providing humanitarian visas would serve the situation better: you help expatriate citizens to countries better governed with superior economics, and you drain citizens from the offending nation, which is far more effective from a future productivity (which translates to economics over the long term) destruction approach.

Maybe this is naive, but could SWIFT payments to Russian accounts be banned, while still allowing SWIFT payments from Russian accounts?

I think the issue is (as always) not technical but a human problem. If the swift payments were blocked, what incentive would the creditors have in paying back the debt?

There is no such thing as a SWIFT payment. SWIFT is strictly a messaging service. You can send a payment order through SWIFT but it is settled by traditional means.

Most of Europe depends on Russian oil. If you cannot pay the Russians for the oil, European cars will have to stop.

Well, it could be replaced by Arab oil. But the price would go up a lot. Yellow vests would no longer be a French thing only.

Every European car owner pays for Putin's tanks. Indirectly even American ones. Would they leave their cars home Russian oil could be replaced on the world market without having the price go up drastically.

Oil is not an issue. Europe can get its oil from other producers. Russia has the largest share of the European oil import but it is not irreplaceable.

Gas is the issue. Europe doesn’t have the infrastructure it needs to not depend on import from Russia when it comes to gaz. All the site where liquified gaz can be delivered are already at full capacity.

Gas might be more difficult to replace for some countries like Germany. But Russia makes much more money from oil than from gas. (I read today, no reference handy right now.)

Gas is not more difficult to replace. Gas is impossible to replace. Europe can't satisfy its demand from gas without the Russian pipelines. It might in three years if they start building terminals now. It can't today.

Nothing is impossible.

Remember that 2.5 years ago we all said it would be impossible to stop international air traffic and close all borders between free countries. Still, it was possible. Some reopend earlier, some later. The US opened up for Europe just a couple of months ago. Australia opened only a couple of days ago.

The question is what price people are willing to pay. The sad truth is that the Western people value their own energy bills or comfort much higher than Putin invading Ukraine.

Germany leading the way in demonstrating how spineless the Eu is. Go ahead and issue your stern warnings and finger wagging.

People rightfully give Germany shit for this, but Italy is right there beside them

What a strange title and poor article. First neither the EU nor the USA can cut Russia from SWIFT unilaterally. You need a majority of the 25 SWIFT administrators to do so and a country can’t have more than two by design. As a sanction it would take time and obviously Europeans banks are not keen on it because that would considerably complicate the recollection of the billions of debt they are owned by Russian entities.

What's the reason ? Spinelessness ?

ST domestic pain and the risk the west loses its control of the global financial markets.

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