Ask HN: Scope of Putin's War Aims? | Hacker News Reader

Ask HN: Scope of Putin's War Aims?

4 pointsdarchimirandur3 comments

For what it’s worth I would hazard to guess that Putins war aims are limited. Reading some respectable analysts who think he intends to conquer the whole country.

Can’t be sure they are wrong but putins flirtations with war were mostly focused on limited war. My guess is the same holds true here and he will declare victory when the ukraine army in the donbas surrenders plus some opportunistic gains elsewhere as the fortunes of the conflict allow.

His peace terms i expect will be very imposing. Perhaps full ukraine air overflight. Or concession of some important road junctures. Or dismissal of small, all of the the ukraine gov cabinet. What is your estimate of this ? If you agree with the above, do you think zelensky would acquiesce to this ?

Occupying countries where a sizable number of people hate you is generally not a good idea if you are not willing to be ruthless because it will tie up large parts of your military in anti-insurgency activities. So I don't think that is the long term plan.

If I were to guess, reversing the effects of the US-supported coup of 2014 will be one of the first things on the agenda. A defensible border will be the second goal. Mountain ranges and big bodies of water often make good borders. In Ukraine, the Dnipro river looks like a good candidate for a Ukraine-Russia border.

take Dombas under direct control and have puppet government in Kiev. The puppet government is conditional, he might be okay with one that has no its own foreign policy.

I agree with the principle as stated there. That principle is the same with any state-power (through any time in history), and it is the only logical for it to be so. It works on smaller scales as well (organization and corporations). The power that be is power exactly because of its influence over as large territory as possible (either physical one, or digital, political, etc).

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