Dmitri Alperovitc: “Putin speech is over. Chilling. War has begun”

I had forgotten because it was so long ago, but the tl;dr is Feb 22nd 2014.

Ukraine is not "splitting" into anything. It's being murdered. By Putin and Putin's Russia.

Nobody, but nobody, was buying what he was selling, and you could tell he didn't much care if they did or not.

The statement from the Kenya delegate was particularly moving, worth a watch if you can find the video.

Now, if you want to say actively undermining the effort at deterrence is pushing for war, sure, they were pushing for war, but...

Heck, you still have dragonwriter elsewhere in this discussion connecting this war with Brexit, Trump, and even Catalonian separatism. Catalonian separatists will be amused to hear that they are all Russian stooges, or something.

> KHARKIV ATTACKED (by Russia)! [0]

According breaking reports: Kyiv, Kharkiv, Kramatorsk, Odesa, Boryspil just attacked too.

Also, just over my house flew some military aircraft in direction Kropyvnytskyy

N.B. I'm Ukrainian living in central Ukraine, here is my statement for Hacker News:

> To be clear, I and my family would stay and resist — I has no plans to leave Ukraine; I would defend if it would be needed as long, as possible.[1,2]

My Patreon: https://patreon.com/app4soft

P.S. God, what the hell?

[0] https://twitter.com/PashaXVI/status/1496684796176699395

[1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=30395897

[2] https://twitter.com/app4soft/status/1495912197272313859

Biden is lower than any other candidate they’ve tracked at this point but Clinton had a lower period earlier and Truman had a lower period very soon after this point in his presidency.

Looks like war it is. All thanks to the Biden administration. Oh dear.

> Yet despite these humbling failures, the present crisis reveals there is still a reflexive tendency to assume the United States has the right, responsibility, and (most important of all) capacity to dictate political arrangements all over the world, even in regions that are more important to others than they are to the West. The United States didn’t have that capacity at the height of the unipolar era, and it certainly doesn’t have that capacity today.

Here is the key point:

> When your opponent has local military superiority and cares more about the outcome than you do, resolving a dispute typically requires some adjustments on your part. This isn’t a question of right or wrong; it’s a question of leverage.

That aside, Biden and the Democratic Party just don't have the appetite for protracted conventional war with a nuclear superpower as evidenced by the lack of such appetite in Iraq or Afghanistan.

[1]: https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/02/23/united-states-europe-wa...

[1]: https://www.carnegiecouncil.org/education/1919/wilson-self-d....

> Then, in 2008, at a NATO summit in Bucharest, Romania, President George W. Bush crossed that Rubicon, committing NATO to bringing in Ukraine and Georgia—another former Soviet republic left out of the previous decade’s enlargement—at some point in the undefined future.

My suspicion is neither Europe nor the US actually wants Ukraine in NATO but dangling that possibility keeps a pro-Western regime in Ukraine.

[1]: https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2022/02/putin-george-bus...

I have tow big issues with this argument.

Firstly, an inevitable consequence of invading Ukraine is sactions that will disrupt oil and gas exports. This is Russia's biggest export.

Second, if Ukraine joins the EU (which is a big if), I haven't seen a compelling argument why this would hurt Russia's interests. Most notably, as an EU member,U Ukraine would lose a certain amount of autonomy to negotiate thing slike this. Do you think Ukraine as a future EU member could effectively cut off the gas supply to other EU members? I just don't see how that could happen.

It's possible that the EU's reliance on Russian oil and gas exports will weaken their resolve. I guess we'll see.

I have initiated a call today with the president of the Russian Federation. The result - silence. Although silence should be in Donbass.

That is why today, I want to come with an appeal to all citizens of Russia. Not as President. I am appealing to the people of Russia as a citizen of Ukraine. We share more than two thousand kilometres of border. Around it, today, is your army: almost 200,000 soldiers; thousands of military units. Your leadership has approved their movement towards us. Towards the territory of another country. This step can become the start of a big war on the European continent. The whole world is talking about what can happen any day now. A reason can appear at any moment. Any provocation. Any spark. A spark that has the potential of burning everything down.

You are told that this flame will bring freedom to the people of Ukraine. But the people of Ukraine are free. They remember their past, and are building their own future. They are building it, not destroying it, as you are told everyday on TV. Ukraine in your news and Ukraine in reality are two completely different countries. The most important difference is that ours is real.

You are being told that we are nazis. But how can a nation be called nazist after sacrificing more than 8 million lives to eradicate nazism. How can I be a nazi, when my grandfather has survived the whole war as part of the Soviet infantry, and has died a colonel in an independent Ukraine. You are told that we hate Russian culture. But how can a culture be hated? Any culture. Neighbours are always enriching each other culturally. Yet, that does not make them one entity, and does not separate people into “us” and “them”. We are different, but that is not a reason to be enemies. We want to build our own history. Peacefully, calmly, and truthfully.

You are told that I am ordering to attack the Donbass. To shoot. To bomb without questions. Although there are questions: To shoot at whom? To bomb what?

Donetsk? To which I have been dozens of times. I have seen their faces and eyes.

Artema street? On which I have been on many walks with my friends in the past.

Donbass arena? Where I have been rooting with the locals for our boys during the Euros.

Shcherbakova Park? In which we were drinking together after our team has lost

Lugansk? The home of my best friend’s mom. The place where my best friend’s father is buried.

Note that I am now speaking in Russian, yet no one in Russia understands what these names, streets, and events mean. This is all foreign to you. Unknown. This is our land. This is our history. What are you going to fight for? And against whom?

Many of you have visited Ukraine in the past. Many of you have relatives here. Some of you studied in our universities. Befriended Ukrainian people. You’re familiar with our character, with our people, our principles. You know what we cherish the most. Look inside you, listen to the voice of reason, of common sense. Hear our voices. The people of Ukraine want peace. Ukrainian authorities want peace. We want it, and we make it. We do everything in our powers. We are not alone. It’s true, Ukraine is supported by many countries. Why? Because we are not talking about peace at any cost. We are talking about peace, and about principles, justice. About everyone’s right to define their own future, of safety, and everyone’s right to live without threat. All this is important to us. All this is important for peace. I know for sure that this is also important for you. We know for sure that we don’t want war. Neither cold, hot, or hybrid.

But, if we are threatened; If someone is trying to take away our country, our freedom, our lives. The lives of our children. We are going to defend ourselves. Not attack. Defend. By attacking us, you are going to see our faces. Not backs. Our faces.

War is a big distress, and it has a big price - in all meanings of this word. People lose their money, reputation, quality of life, freedom, and most importantly, people lose their loved ones. Lose themselves. A lot of things are always lacking in war. But what is in abundance is pain, dirt, blood, and death. Thousands. Tens of thousands of deaths. You are told that Ukraine is a threat to Russia. This was not true before, not now, and won’t be in the future. You are demanding security assurances from NATO. We are also demanding assurances of our security. The security of Ukraine from you. From Russia. And from other signatories of the Budapest memorandum. Today, we are not part of random security alliances. The security of Ukraine is tied to the security of our neighbours. That is why we are now talking about the security of all Europe. But our main goal is peace in Ukraine, and the safety of our citizens. Of Ukrainians. We are determined to let everyone know about this, including you. War is going to deprive everyone of any assurances. No one will have assurances of security.

Who is going to suffer from this the most? The people.

Who does not want this more than anyone? The people.

Who can prevent all this from happening? The people.

If these people are among you. I am sure they are. Public figures, journalists, musicians, actors, athletes, scientists, doctors, bloggers, stand-up comics, tiktokers, and others. Ordinary people. Ordinary, simple people. Men, women, old, young, fathers, and most importantly - mothers. Just as much as the people in Ukraine, no matter how much they try to convince you of the opposite.

I know that my announcement will not be aired on Russian television. But the citizens of Russia have to see it. They need to know the truth. And the truth is, that this needs to stop, before it’s too late. And if the authorities of Russia don’t want to talk to us, for the sake of peace, maybe they will talk to you.

Do the people of Russia want war? I would’ve very much liked to be able to answer this, but the answer depends only on you - citizens of the Russian Federation.

[0] https://www.reddit.com/r/news/comments/t01m8x/comment/hy758o...

NATO expansion is viewed by the Russians as a violation of previous alleged agreements and assurances by the West, and a HUGE sore point with the Russians, to the point that hardliners there believe this to be an existential crisis.

So yes, in the higher Russian circles they do truly believe that this is all America's fault, and in truth America absolutely did harm relations with Russia and for better or worse knowingly intimidated them to the point that lashing out became likely.

However, one cannot attack another and then blame someone else for one's own violence. This is not an acceptable response to such grievances; it's how an abuser reacts.

But people don't like complicated explanations, so we settle on "Russia is bad" vs "America is bad" and then pick sides to sling mud from.

This is of course in contrast to annexation of Crimea and the Donbas.

Also, my opinion about this situation: war has no place in 2022.