Putin is surrounded by people who can't say no. I'm not sure how in touch with reality he his.
In general I don’t think it follows that he could still be in power if he weren’t in touch with reality.
(my grandparent comment was: 'I don't think that he will invade; Putin is a lot of things, but he knows some history and he is not a suicidal idiot. I think it's all for show')