4-5C scenarios are implausible, 2-3C more plausible, 2C within reach
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You don't just stroll through the minefield because somebody said that the most likely result is going to be you passing the field unharmed, and there is just 10% chance you get blown into pieces.
Another reason for paying attention to worst case scenarios is that most people just don't get it. And so it makes sense to oversell it a little bit if the end result is that there is less chance 1B people starve.
I think it is fine as long as these scenarios are plausible and grounded in truth.